virtualsphere

May should have a pretty impressive lightning strike map as well. Looking at this, which shows strikes from just the last week, and you can only see the far north of Scotland and SE England: http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html? As the Met Office map is a little more detailed it will be interesting to see where exactly the strikes have been at the end of the month - still time to cover the map yet! Despite the disappointment for some on Saturday, the last week has certainly been good for many in Western and central parts.

Thanks for the videos! Like the hail. ...and 25 miles away in Carmarthen we've not had a drop of rain all day! Just shows how localised these storms can be.

It looks like today's 12Z GFS has shifted the highest CAPE a little further away from the West for tomorrow... There are now higher values for Saturday afternoon though - the largest are shown for SW England rather than here in Wales if this is to be believed... It's worth noting this is just one run and there's still time for this to change - especially for Saturday. Hopefully some of the more experienced members on here will be able to provide more forecasting detail as I'm really just going by the charts - it will probably be a 'nowcasting' situation to some extent, with showers and storms likely to be scattered. The Met Office Invent maps are going for heavy showers to move eastwards from around 4am in the SE through to mid-morning too, which don't show on the GFS storm risk charts at all and look to associated with the trough shown on the fax chart for 12Z tomorrow running from the SW up to the NE.

Both GFS 06Z and 12Z going with negative LI values and increasing CAPE starting over the south east from about mid-day on Friday, and moving / expanding westwards as the day progresses. If the GFS is to be believed, the best potential looks to be early evening over Somerset / Wiltshire area, perhaps. Still time for this to change, but as others have noticed GFS does seem to have been quite persistent about this... Shame it's not a few hours earlier - it would be fun to see the wedding go with a bang! Anyway some interesting potential here for the south of the country, and maybe some will see storms two bank holiday weekends running.

I'll be way, way out with my April guess having opted for a cool one. As there's no change of synoptics on the horizon and the models are going for a southerly reload come the end of April, I'll try something above average for next month - 12.5C Can't see it being quite as exceptionally above average as April, but you never know!

I'd vouch for that. Here in SW Wales we had our first decent sustained summery weather here last year since 2006, and that was during May / June. I don't think August 2007 was that bad here, but that might be just looking back through rose-tinted spectacles after the dire June and July. 2008 was pretty bad throughout, but June was better than July and August. June 2009 was ok, but not as good as 2010. It would be nice to have a decent July here. The MetOffice anomaly maps show my location to have greater than 175% of average rainfall for July for the last four years!

Woken by 3 rumbles here and hail at 2:50am, which took me by surprise as I was expecting more from tomorrow than last night!

7.6C please

I'm sure this must be some kind of glitch as pressure is currently very high over the UK circa 1040Mb, and there are no obvious fronts or surface troughs in the area to force any kind of convection. Not sure if you can access old charts but the current GFS CAPE/LI doesn't support any sferic activity:

Thought it would be an interesting idea to work out the reverse - i.e. months 2C or more below the 1971 - 2000 average. Not sure if I've done this right so please do point out any errors: January: 2010 (before this,1987) February: 1991 March: 1987 April: 1986 May: 1996 June: 1991 July: 1965 (this can't be right?! Came close in 1988) August: 1986 September: 1986 October: 1992 November: 1993 December: 2010 (and before this 2009, then 1996) This illustrates well that we are overdue a cold summer, and also a very cold March and April.

4.9C for me please. I think we're due a cold one...

A very good point. I know November's not technically part of the calendar winter, but considering the depth of the cold at the end of November and the snow some parts received it felt a lot like winter.. and if the whole cold period had been shifted forward slightly so the last 1 - 2 weeks of November were at the beginning of December instead it would have been almost half of the winter season. January was nondescript and certainly nothing to remember for snow lovers - but it was one of the colder Januarys we've had in the last couple of decades. In a way I suppose I should have said a cracking December, but somehow I feel this isn't doing it justice. Yes - I'd agree with 2009-10 as more exciting on average as this year taking the whole winter season, and particularly notable for the lack of any mild weather. For me 2008-09 wasn't as good as this winter, but it probably depends on your location. We had a great snowy spell in early February 2009 but it wasn't as good as December 2010 and didn't last as long. The other thing I enjoyed about December was just how cold it was - and to go colder than January, which was remarkable at the time, made it even more special. Definitely, and that's interesting in its own right. It's probably harder to go from a subzero December to 6-7C in February than to continue colder than average. But I can understand the frustration of going from such a promising starting point and not being able to have a shot at equalling a winter like 1962-63. Having just looked into the model thread it may not be over just yet!

While it's a shame Jan and Feb have been disappointing for wintry weather, I still think this has been a cracking winter overall thanks to the exceptional spell before Christmas. If December and February were reversed, and December had a CET of around say 6.5C and February a subzero CET, the overall outcome for winter would be the same even though winter would end on a more positive note. Personally I'd rather take the subzero month in December when the days are a bit shorter and the festive season is in full swing, but I can appreciate some may prefer the reverse especially given easterlies have the potential to be more potent in January or early February. The negative side is that, unless something exceptional happens in the next four weeks that the teleconnections don't support, we'll probably have to wait until at least next December for another cold spell. In a few months time I think this winter may be seen in a more positive light as a classic winter which produced the first subzero month since 1986, the coldest December since 1890 and nearly the coldest on record, and a remarkably cold end to November to boot with severe weather on the news before winter had even officially begun. I've been particularly impressed by Glacier Point's long range forecast this winter too, which I notice was issued as long ago as 18th October and predicted December would be the coldest month of the winter, and was remarkably accurate with the general pressure patterns for Dec / Jan. Good call - and another reason why NetWeather is the best site to visit during the winter season!

Nice to see some good convection around today! Some impressive looking Cbs around SW Wales today. Nothing of note precipitation wise here except a light hail shower at lunchtime though. Looks like some decent cells approaching the South coast at the moment on the radar.

Interesting stuff - I was only 7 at the time, so don't remember much about it! March and April were cold too according to the CET figures, especially April with a CET of 5.8C.

4.8C for me please.

These charts aren't too far apart: The main differences being the strength of high pressure over the UK, and gradient of pressure over the Atlantic. Pressure also lower in Europe in the 1942 chart, though centred in similar places. I know it's the evolution that is important here though rather than one random set of charts.

Interesting thread and forecast. I notice the BBC Monthly Outlook for 24th Jan - 6th Feb by Rob McElwee says (with low confidence at this stage): "The northwest quarter wind prevails but surprisingly rainfall is above average for England and Wales and well above in eastern Scotland. Temperatures are well below average in Scotland and Northern Ireland whilst sunshine is well above average for northern Scotland but below in the Midlands and northeast England.As I like to try and fit pressure patterns to these indications, I suggest a slow-moving depression in the North Sea." http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

This is proving an excellent idea. I regularly read the model threads but don't post very often as I'm still trying to learn how to interpret the charts properly. As others have said, those chosen to post in the new thread are names I would look out for to give some detailed, readable analysis of the model output. No disrespect to others who post, as I enjoy reading all the comments, especially when I have more time to go through them. When I've been at work though, I enjoy reading a detailed summary of the output from one of the respected members first to give a sense of perspective, and the new thread has made this really easy to do. The amount of posting has also worked well as there's not too much to catch up on, but there have so far been enough posts to keep me wanting to check back regularly. Thanks to everyone who posts in both threads - I only know a little but wouldn't understand half as much without your input and interpretation!

Here are some charts from the day. Although you mention it originated as a hurricane, the charts show that rather than dissipating the depression deepened as it approached the UK during the day, with the pressure dropping from 970mb to 955mb. There's a brief article about it on Wikipedia which quotes wind speeds of 103mph at Prestwick Airport: http://en.wikipedia....oxing_Day_Storm

I'll try 9.2 - a bit warmer than 2010 but not much.

Try Excel - worked for me. You'll need to select 'all files' to see the file when you browse to open it though. Follow the import instructions and it should appear in a table.

A tough one to call. I'll go for 3.0C - possibly with synoptics which would normally bring a higher CET but with the cold air staying in place due to mainly high pressure.

For me, 2010 has been one of the greatest years of weather I can remember. The exceptional cold, snowy periods in January and late November - December have been fantastic to experience, but I've also enjoyed the rest of the year too as the sustained absence of our usual Atlantic depressions and westerly winds has brought our part of the country an unusual amount of beautiful, clear sunny days - especially in Spring and early Summer. I don't think I can recall seeing so many days with clear blue sky in a single year, though I have to admit I haven't been keeping any records. My birthday in mid-June was a good example: a fantastic, sunny day with barely a cloud in the sky, and nice and warm too without being too hot and humid, which meant I could go to the beach with my wife and 2 year old son. I even got to experience a couple of storms too, in an unusal place - I went on holiday to Aberdeenshire in August to visit family and heard thunder on 2 days in a row there, which matches the number I've had here during the rest of the year! The only thing which could have made the year better would have been a sunnier July and August - as a hayfever (grass pollen) sufferer, I tend to stay indoors more in May - June, when we had the nicest weather, so would have slightly preferred to have had the best of the weather later in the summer. I wonder if those folks living in eastern areas may have had a reversal of fortunes as far as sunny weather is concerned, experiencing cloudy weather while we enjoyed the sunshine in the West?

I did wonder after getting such a cold start to the year if we'd be able to get a sub 9C year... ...but by Oct / Nov I thought we'd probably blown it. I was expecting a colder summer would be needed to get near to that figure. Which makes me wonder - is the summer CET likely to also drop in future? While we do seem to have experienced less extreme heat in summer, the CET for summer months has generally held up. Is it just a coincidence that winter has been affected more than summer by whatever drivers have influenced our weather over the past few years (the sun? PDO? etc) and should we expect this to balance out over the seasons in due course, with perhaps a milder winter and cooler summer? Or are the circumstances affecting the CET in summer different enough for it to not be affected in the same way?