virtualsphere

I remembered this discussion about a link between wet Novembers after November 2009 but before anyone knew what winter 2009-10 would turn out like. Took me a while to find it! http://forum.netweat...4/page__st__340 Interestingly 1946 is high in the list of wet Novembers with 162.8mm, but 1962 is one of the driest. 2006 is also fairly high on the list so certainly not a guarantee of a cold winter month. 1946, 1978, 1985 and 1962 meanwhile are all in the top ten driest Octobers since 1910, which may help to support the dry October leading to a colder winter spell claim. Off-topic, but another interesting feature about these statistics is that we've had five of the wettest months of the year since 2000: April 2000, June 2007, July 2009, October 2000 and November 2009, but we have to go back to 1991 to find our most recent driest month (May). Rainfall data: http://www.metoffice...l/ranked/UK.txt

I'm wondering if this week's set-up will be conducive to some thunder here in the far west. The synoptic charts look a little similar to 21 November 2009 when we had a few thundery showers and short lived storms, with the low to the west of the UK dipping south before moving north. The MetOffice app on my phone is showing the thundery shower / thunderstorm icon over Wales for Monday and Tuesday intermittently over the last couple of days, and GFS suggests reasonable CAPE for the time of year over the SW and Wales: This is often the best time of year for thunder here near to the west coast - the two largest storms we've had here in the last five years have been in October and November.

9.9C for me please!

Yes, that's a good point. The coldest winter on record I believe is 1683/4, and just two years later 1685/6 was one of the warmest on record. These were during the Maunder Minimum, so given the theory that solar activity has an effect on our weather patterns in the UK, and that we have recently experienced some colder winters coinciding with the recent reduction in sunspot activity, if this is true there is a chance that some very warm weather would be possible as well as cold. Last winter could be an example, which featured one of the coldest winter months followed just two months later by a very warm one. If sunspot reduction is somehow related to mid-latitude blocking, that could explain the occurance of extreme temperatures at either end of the scale depending on where it sets up, and reduce the frequency of zonal weather. There are relatively few mild winters before 1750 in the series though, which either goes against this theory or suggests that any block bringing the UK warm temperatures didn't last for the whole winter. The interesting feature of the recent cold winters has been the frequency of northerlies rather than easterlies, and also how early in the season the cold weather occurs. I'd be surprised if this pattern could continue for another year, but certainly spring, summer and autumn weather seem to have come 'early' this year so I wouldn't want to bet against it.

Good post. February was disappointing given what came before it, but January wasn't mild even though it was a nondescript month. The last third of November wasn't just a wintry autumnal spell but would stand up there with some of the best spells during the meteorological winter for many. If November had been December, and last winter was N-D-J instead of D-J-F, it would probably be held in higher regard overall, especially since having a wet and windy start to December was fairly normal even in the best winters until recently. This year seems to have followed in the same vein, as if the seasons have shifted forward: a spring-like February, summer-like April, and now an early autumnal spell of weather. Maybe we'll have another early winter spell, though we're probably overdue another mild December at some point since we've only had one 6+ December CET since 1994 (in 2006). Having seen an exceptional December and decent January in 2010, it would be nice to see a cold, snowy February!

For those that haven't yet seen the new MetOffice Beta site, it looks like they're now giving free lightning data along with radar and satellite observations: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/observations/ Click the lightning button to view. Unfortunately it's not been an active day to judge how well it works!

Yes, while not a classic by any means, this summer hasn't been too bad here. If it had come straight after 2006 it would probably have been disappointing, but after 2007 - 2009 it seemed pleasant enough with enough temporary ridges building in after the lows to give a variety of weather and with some sunshine too (though August feels a little disappointing in that respect - not sure if figures agree). It's been good to finally have a July which wasn't a complete washout, too. I'd still rate last summer over this one, simply because last June was fantastic here even though last July and August were very disappointing. I'd rather have one great month than three average ones.

Lots of showers and sferics in my area today, but it's stayed dry all day here.

Just checked again and it did take me to the last page of posts, which is fine. Maybe it is my phone (using Safari on iPhone 3) in which case apologies for the confusion!

Thanks Paul - looks good. One problem with the mobile version: how do you jump to the last post of a thread? On the old mobile version the last post was a link so you didn't have to scroll through from the start of the topic, but now I can only see the link to the first post which is a bit frustrating. Thanks!

16.4C for me please.

Yes, I'd agree with that. We might not have had any lasting anticyclones this summer, but at least the low pressure systems this year have pushed through far enough east to allow sunshine and showers, and then have been followed by ridges allowing decent sunny periods, like Wednesday and yesterday. It's a nice change from the drizzle, low cloud and persistent rain that we've seen here the last four Julys. I'd still rate last summer above this year at present, due to the fantastic June last year. The Met Office stats have June 2010 as the 8th sunniest since records began in Wales with 239.9 hours - by contrast last July had 114 hours and is the 3rd least sunniest! Julys 2007 - 2009 had between 150 and 164 hours sunshine in Wales; a stark contrast to 2006 which had 261 hours. I still think summer 2008 was the worst of recent years here, with a reasonable 191 hours of sunshine in June being followed by an uninspiring 155 hours in July and just 92.5 in August - the worst on record. June has definitely been the best summer month here since 2007.

Went very dark here earlier this evening and heard 3 rumbles of thunder between 5:50 - 6:20pm, followed by moderate rain since then. Quite surprised actually, I wasn't expecting much from today even though the BBC had a thunder symbol over SW Wales last night, as it has been overcast all day. Good forecast from Nick F! Looking at the radar I think only our area and a small area in western Scotland have had any rain at all today...

Yes, Derek Brockway had the thunder symbol over Mid / Southern parts of Wales tomorrow afternoon on the local BBC forecast this evening. If there are showers in the West tomorrow, there was a good call from TWS in the Model thread - I read one of his posts at the weekend suggesting showers in the West on Tuesday due to the Low over Northern France, when the Met Office and others still had sunshine forecast. GFS isn't suggesting great CAPE / Lifted Index values for storms tomorrow though, so we'll see what happens - maybe just a few sharp showers rather than storms.

Thanks for the stats Eaasman G. Is any data available prior to the 1980s? The figures make me wonder if the last few years have generally been poorer in some areas, or whether the 1980s were actually a more thundery decade and the current frequency of thunderstorms is more akin to the long term average.

Heavy showers have started here in the last hour or so - quite surprising as the GFS has our CAPE levels decreasing here this evening! Looks to be quite a few over South Wales moving slowly eastwards at the moment.

Good call. I read a few posts on here this morning including this one above, and hadn't expected much after seeing the GFS storm charts and the UKASF forecast which left SW Wales off the edge of the Watch area. My wife sent me a message while I was on the train home this afternoon to say there was thunder and torrential rain over us in east Carmarthenshire, and sure enough as the train approached from west of Swansea the sky just inland from the coast looked pitch black with some impressive structure (couldn't see the top of the CBs anvil due to mid / high level cloud). Third thunder day here so far this year - shame I missed it! Sferics reported on ATD too. Credit also to BrickFielder who I've just notice also highlighted the convergence zone on the maps in the convective forecasting thread.

Looks like the band of showers is currently heading your way according to the radar - can't see any sferic on ATD or NetWeather though... but dogs do seem to have a sixth sense for that kind of thing! Heaviest radar echoes are heading towards Brecon at the moment.

Radar currently showing a band of moderate - heavy showers moving slowly eastwards across SE Wales, currently heaviest around the Cardiff area. Edit: I was looking at the MetOffice radar which is about an hour behind - looking at NetWeather the heaviest seems to have just passed through Ebbw Vale moving NW.

Thanks - I didn't realise these were calculated by the site, I assumed it was part of the data sent by the GFS! Shows how much I know about the models...

Am I missing something here? On Coast's London chart above, labelled GFS12Z, the LI is negative throughout the period from 4 - 6 June, while on the Netweather GFS 12Z CAPE & LI chart the LI over London looks positive throughout: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

I'll try 15.6C please

Hi Jane, Interesting topic. Sadly I've not witnessed it myself, but there was an incident near to me in SW Wales on Remembrance Sunday 2008 (9th November). I first heard thunder at mid-day and we were then hit by storms and heavy showers throughout the day with thunder heard until around 7pm - the most thundery day I can remember. The most severe passed over us at around 5pm - and although the lightning wasn't as frequent as during some summer storms, it was surprisingly frequent for the time of the year, especially considering most of the strikes were CGs from relatively low-topped storms. I later found this on the BBC Wales website about ball lightning reported from the same storm, in a location about 20 miles away from me: http://news.bbc.co.u...les/7720630.stm Radar grab from that day (hope I'm allowed to post this - please let me know if I need to remove it!) The track of the lightning can be seen on the MetOffice lightning strikes map for November 2008 as there weren't many other storms that month: http://www.metoffice...ikes_Actual.gif

Thanks for the detailed forecast - an interesting read as usual, and also good to see an explanation of the teleconnections behind the forecast. I'm sure if this proves as accurate as the winter forecast a lot of people will be happy! If it verifies and we get a decent summer, it will be nice to have a decent cold winter period followed by a hot summer one. I just hope that the trough stays far away enough not to spoil things for those of us in the west. It's not exactly been wet here recently, but it has felt very cloudy since the end of April although that could just be a skewed perception following such a sunny period over Easter.

A few light showers here this afternoon and some nice convective clouds going up, but not producing anything particularly heavy according to the radar. Sharpest showers look to be over NW Wales and a further batch over Lincolnshire at the moment. A few sferics detected earlier heading from eastern Ireland over towards NW Wales coast.