virtualsphere

I've voted for crisp, sunny and cold, which I think is the most realistic option (out of the ones I like!) I'd love to see a white Christmas, but from a selfish point of view would prefer no disruption on the big day because I need to drive to my mum's house for dinner!! Lying snow from the day before would be a nice touch though. Certainly don't want to see wet and windy but I've a feeling we're probably overdue a zonal Christmas. It would be hard to beat last year's events: woke up to sub-zero temperatures and had to negotiate several crashed cars trying to drive down my wife's dad's ungritted estate road. Shortly after arriving home in the evening to watch the telly, the power was tripped twice by lightning.

Thanks, that would be quite a feat then - thought it might have been as recently as 1996 after I'd posted the question! Yes, I notice after posting my guess of 2.7 yesterday both GFS and ECMWF now introduce milder air next week! Still it's a long way off yet, so I'll stick with my guess.

I'll try 2.7C If we go below 3.0 then all three winter months of the calendar year will be below 3C. When was the last time that happened?

A belated thanks to RJS & BFTP for this interesting forecast and all the work you've put in, an enjoyable read. I'm interested in your thoughts for Feb, which seems to go against the more conventional forecasts I've seen. Am I correct in thinking that your method should work well over a longer timescale, as it isn't subject to model degredation (as RJS mentions on a previous post) so regardless of how your forecast for Dec pans out there is still an equal chance of your forecast for Feb verifying? If so, it will be worth reviewing the forecast at the end of winter given these differences.

I have to admire anyone who prepares a long range forecast as if I did one it would be complete guesswork, so hats off to everyone who had a go last year - and hope you'll all be giving your thoughts again this time round! My vote would have to go with RJS & BFTP or the official Netweather forecast because of the level of detail involved. To give credit where due some of the others were also accurate, but these stood out for me as it's much harder for a forecast to verify when providing detailed synoptics as people will inevitably judge not just on the weather and CET values but also on where and when the blocking / low pressure takes place. In addition both forecasts were very well explained which is a great help to those of us who are still learning the basics!

You may be right - look at this site which shows lightning strikes for the last week: http://andvari.vedur...gar/index.html? There are some strikes showing as being in the Preston area including one in light orange (for Friday 12th). I'm not sure how good the data is but it's supplied by the UK Met Office so would have thought the location is fairly accurate - maybe it doesn't pick up all the strikes though.

TORRO have issued a warning for tomorrow: http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php Looking at the BBC weather maps, a sharp line of more intense precipitation shows up from 9:00 - 15:00 crossing southern England, which seems to line up with the cold front showing on the Fax charts.

Certainly not more experienced - but a couple of sferics appearing in the Cardigan Bay area according to ATD, and UKWeatherWorld have a convective thread covering Wales and SW England for tonight for hail showers: http://www.ukweather...posts=5&start=1 Some decent echoes showing on the radar too associated with the trough currently passing through.

Just out of interest, has anyone ever tried comparing the accuracy of the predictions made by all the different storm forecasting sites, ESTOFEX, UKASF etc over a sustained period of time for their area or the UK? It's probably quite hard to do given there's only usually a small chance of a storm over any given point?

A belated thanks to GP and the Netweather team for making such a detailed winter forecast available again this year Some have mentioned that going for a high pressure dominated set-up is a 'safe option' which would be a fair point if this is all the forecast said, but it's worth remembering the forecast goes into a lot more detail including where the high pressure is due to be centred each month, as well as temperature and rainfall predictions. What is really interesting (and very useful for those like me who want to learn more about how forecasting works) is the level of detail in describing the atmospheric synoptics likely to drive this winter's weather pattern - La Nina, sea surface temperature anomalies etc. Anyway keep up the good work and I'll be looking forward to reading the posts and forecasts on here throughout the winter!

Let's try 7.4C please - starting mild and unsettled but hoping for something cooler and more settled come mid-month.

I think slightly below average, so will try 10.3C

Assuming you mean 1040mb, and you include north eastern Europe, you don't have to go back too far. I'm sure if you look hard enough there are much better examples, especially for central Europe and indeed the UK.

a chilly 12.8C please.

17.2 for me please.

Late entry of 16.2 for me.

I'd love to be able to say that I used some kind of expert forecasting knowledge, but in reality it was a complete guess... Thought I'd underestimated after the recent warm spell, but it was rounded down more than I expected! <_<

on the cool side - 13.7C for me please

10.7C please

8.2 for me please.

I remember a while ago, before winter started, a some stats being posted showing how wet Novembers are often followed by colder winter months. Unfortunately I can't find the original thread, but thought it was worth revisiting now winter is over. I do remember one post giving a reason which could explain this pattern, but can't remember what - something to do with the jet tracking in a more southerly position perhaps? Apologies I can't credit the original posters as I can't find the thread.

10.11C according to the Met Office http://hadobs.metoff...a/download.html

Never mind reaching 10C, what about recording a sub 9C year? It's easy to forget that until relatively recently (circa 1994) that the majority of years came in between 9 and 10, with 10+ being less likely and two sub-9C years reported together in 1985 and 1986. Both got off to a colder start, but also recorded Decembers in the 6C+ range. If March continues below average, and December comes in between 3 and 4C, then we wouldn't need to go too much below average so I think this year may be as good a shot as we get for a while. Given that we've waited so long for a sub 3C month and then we not only get two together, but also a sub 2C month to boot, what is to say that it can't happen for the annual series?

I'm no expert but I assume that, if one of the main reasons we've experienced a couple of colder winters is the jet taking a more southerly track, this would also suggest that blocking in summer is likely to be from a more northerly source than ridging from the traditional Azores high, thus bringing colder conditions in any settled spells? Having said that I expect a continental easterly influence would probably bring warm weather. I believe the jet normally moves northwards in the summer which brought us the warmer, dryer summers in the 1990s and early 2000s, and then sinks southwards in the winter leaving us in the path of Atlantic lows. The wet conditions over the last three summers were at least partly caused by the jet being right over the UK leaving us exposed to the lows, and now we've seen it sink south in winter bringing the cold weather. So if the jet does make its usual northward movement for the summer, it may not be far enough north to leave us in any prolonged ridging from a high with a southerly source? Obviously if this pattern does continue then we would then be in with a good chance of a cold winter again next year, providing other factors work in our favour. This is probably way too simplistic, so don't discount summer just yet!

Here's the 850hpa temperatures for the GFS chart you posted which show quite a potent North Easterly. The GFS shows max daytime temps around 2 - 4C the following day for the UK with the lowest reseved for the SE. I don't know how accurate these are, and whether any clear skies would allow the sun to raise the surface temps? The upper air temps would suggest a sunshine and snow showers set-up going by the earlier post by Thundery Wintry Showers, though under high pressure not sure how widespread any showers would be. Still a very long way off in FI at this stage though, so anything can (and probably will) happen...