virtualsphere

I wonder what people would be saying about the current period if it came straight after 1987? Historically the period 1988 - 2006 stands out as being one of anomalous warm, dry summers and a lack of cold winters, which probably makes the post-2007 period all the more notable.

I am optimistic we can still get a decent summer - if not this year then at some point in the future. The interesting thing about this year is that we're starting from a different position, having had a very cold spring so far, which is an unknown quantity in the post-2007 period, but this is one of the reasons why I still think it's possible to have a warm, dry summer. Since 2007, we've now had two very warm Aprils, and a very warm March, and yet this year we've had a very cold spring (so far). Following the warm, dry April in 2011 we had a cool wet April in 2012. We've had colder winters, but also winter 2011-12, which was more akin to average with a warmer December following the cold December 2010. So even in the last few years, despite the tendency for greater blocking to the north, and a southerly tracking jet, we have seen variety in the winter and the spring. I can't see why the same couldn't happen in summer - it certainly has in June, with 2010 being a complete contrast to 2012. The problem has been that, with the jet tracking further south, in the summer when the jet traditionally moves north it moves the depressions over the UK rather than north of the UK. Given the variation in other months surely it should still be possible for the jet to track further south but with the troughs and ridges positioned slightly more favourably, with a trough setting up west of the UK rather than over us - like parts of June 2010 and March 2012: There is probably a reason for this not occuring more frequently in July and August (any views from the experts?). Here in the west one modest challenge would be to get a dry and sunny summer overall, even if it's not hot. June 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb as being pretty much the only decent sunny summer month here since 2007. Surely that has to improve at some point even if we don't have a repeat of 1995 or 2006!

Another beautiful day here with practically clear blue skies all day, if a little chilly for the time of year although at least the sun is now strong enough to lift the temperature a bit. I can't say I'm too enthusiastic about the models today with the return of low pressure even if it will mean warmer weather, but on the other hand a pattern change is probably needed if we're finally going to get a decent summer. If the current setup was to continue, the chances are the jetstream would move further north as we approach summer and we'd end up in the path of a string of Atlantic lows again. If the jet can take a more SW-NE track then hopefully it will move north of the UK as spring progresses and send those depressions out of the way.

Agree with 2011. 2012 was memorable for all the wrong reasons! 2005 was a good year here, one of our best northerlies was in Nov 2005 and we had our last decent elevated storm in May that year; the summer wasn't bad either - better than 2004,7,8,9,11,12. What about 1988? I don't remember much notable that year although I was quite young at the time. Possibly the least memorable of the 1980s?

The number of replies and views of this thread is testament to the high regard with which GP's forecasting skill is held. Since joining NW, one of the greatest highlights for me has been reading GP's seasonal forecasts and analysis. Not only is the forecasting innovative, but the level of detail and enthusiasm clearly evident in these forecasts is something I've yet to come across elsewhere, and has really helped make advanced meteorology accessible to newcomers. I've certainly learned a lot. Very best for the future Stewart, and hopefully you'll still have a chance to post here occasionally.

The significant feature for me on Robbie's chart in the opening post is actually the period 1980 - 2010. I agree that there is likely to be a link between solar activity and the weather patterns which affect our temperature in the UK, but if the link was straightforward then I would expect the solar activity in the 1980 - 2010 (1988 - 2006 in particular) to be at a record high. As the sunspot chart shows in PM's link above this isn't the case. Activity is high, but slightly below the period around 1960. A lag time therefore makes sense, but if this is the case then you would either expect the current UK temperatures to still be largely influenced by the high solar activity in the past 20 years, or for there to be a higher peak in the CET in the early 1960s. The UK is probably too small a region to accurately measure the effects and / or other factors also play a part in the temperatures that reach our shores. Another option could be that the high CET anomaly between 1980 - 2010 is a result of weather patterns caused by the build-up of increased solar activity since around 1950 rather than a response to any one particular peak. Again if this is the case you might expect that we would need to wait a while longer to notice a response to the current low solar activity. The cold winter in 1963 occurred during a minumum but not a particularly deep one (according to the chart anyway) and not in any unusually low cycle - in fact it looks like it was just after the highest cycle peak - so you could also argue that it is not the level of activity but the level of change which is the important factor. This is probably just a coincidence but it might also explain how we could experience the effects now due to a change to low activity after a sustained period of high activity. It is more than likely a coincidence because it wouldn't explain the colder winter months of the mid 1980s, for example, or why the Little Ice Age lasted so long, unless again it is dependent on other factors. I think the only way we will know for sure is by waiting a while longer to see how this all pans out! The period c1820 - 1835 looks interesting as it seems to be a warmer CET period coinciding with lower solar activity. Also the late 18th Century which had higher activity and lower CET values.

Tricky one this - as March 2006 demonstrates, at this time of the year a cold start can easily be scuppered by a few very mild days at the end, given the quickly lengthening days and strengthening sun. I've not looked into it but I would think therefore it is easier to get a cold April by ensuring the second half is cool rather than through having a very cold first half; certainly that's helped the current month to a low CET with the cold weather continuing as we head towards the end. Enough rambling, I'll go for 8.1C - cold for the first half and warm for the second.

Some great photos in here today; thanks to everyone for sharing. We did well in January so I can't complain, although I can't help feeling a tad envious of those posting pics showing feet of lying snow! We've had a light dusting a couple of times earlier this month but just rain from this event and so if this does end up being the coldest March for 50 years it would be nice to get something a little more substantial. All eyes on Thursday / Friday to see what the next Low does...

My 6.9C looks like a complete bust. The lowest guess was 4.4C and it would be remarkable if the end result was lower than any of the entries! I'm starting to think this winter could have been epic if it was all shifted back about 5-6 weeks (mid-Jan just before Christmas and so on).

If the front is where currently modelled and not further south (which I'm hoping for to be in with a chance of snow!) then Friday could be very wet here. At least we had a very dry Feb - if this was coming straight after all the deluges between June '12 - Jan '13 then it could be quite worrying!

Another dusting of powdery snow overnight last night. Can we make it 3 in a row? If NMM is to be believed, maybe, but it may fall as sleet here if we get anything overnight. Further north / east looks like any showers will be of snow.

Really wasn't expecting much once the models had firmed up on the more southerly track of the low, but I woke up to a dusting of snow this morning and had a few snow showers throughout the day. Very impressive for a cold convective north-easterly here, the air has had to track across practically the breadth of the UK to get to my location - one of the advantages of being so late in the season with the stronger sun!

Two areas to watch out for on Sunday. The front moving down from the north is forecast by both NMM and NAE to be largely of snow and positioned on current charts to be over North - Mid Wales on Sunday AM but with only light precipitation. Both NMM and NAE have precipitation fading over mid-Wales at 12:00 Sunday which is currently as far out as the charts go. There's also the front associated with the low currently modelled as moving into northern parts of France in the same period which is shown at the moment over SW England on Sunday morning. NMM has this further north than NAE with precipitation touching SE Wales by 12:00 Sunday. This is showing as rain on both models at mid-day Sunday, but the interesting period is still too far out at present - GFS 12Z shows the front pushing further north moving into Wales and merging with the dying front, turning to snow by 9pm Sunday. Still uncertainty over the position of these features (especially the low to the South) and so hard to say as yet which areas are most likely to see a covering come Monday morning. Edit: I should add that ECM and UKMO don't show the snow to be as far south as the GFS, and those of you who dare to venture into the model thread will know Ian F has just posted that UKMO and UK4 models currently expect the M4 to be the northern extent of the front come Monday.

Yes or a "blackthorn winter" apparently: http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Hpc9AAAAIAAJ&lpg=PA31&ots=6ySrej_CJ8&dq=%22peewits%20pinch%22&pg=PA31#v=onepage&q=%22peewits%20pinch%22&f=false Countryman's Guide to the South East by John Talbot White (1978)

Yes, April 1999 saw a large (temporary) snowfall in my area. We were coming back from Scotland, and had driven all day, and just 30 minutes from home it started snowing heavily and sticking, and we struggled to make it back. It's actually quite a contrasting set-up to what the models are currently predicting for next week. In 1999, the cold air came from the north: Note the mid-Atlantic high, and low pressure over Scandinavia. What we're seeing the models show for next week (using Steve M's UKMO chart as an example) is for the cold to come from the east, with the block positioned further north and ridging down into the Atlantic from Greenland:

It's been a fascinating winter to follow both outside and here on Netweather. In terms of the actual weather, we had a week of lying snow and depths of almost 5 inches which makes it about equal to 2008-09, and beaten only by winters 2009-10 and 2010-11 in any winter since at least 1995-96. December was a diabolical month in terms of the weather we experienced here and somehow managed to be even wetter than any of the three dreadful summer months, and while being cold delivered little in the way of any wintry feeling weather with no snow and very little frost. In synoptic terms though it was interesting to follow as a few tweaks here and there would have made it a much more seasonal month. As others have posted, January could have been better with more sunshine and less in the way of rainfall outside the snowy period, but I can't really fault it given that it delivered the joint 3rd best period for snow in 17 years. It was also the first time I've been able to take my son sledging as he was too young in 2010, so it will probably be remembered as a special winter for us. It was also fascinating to watch the battleground synoptics show on the charts and for the cold to appear in the reliable timeframe, especially in conjunction with the discussion on the SSW, so has been a great learning experience. February has been rather benign but after such a wet period, this has been very welcome. It was a shame the easterly couldn't deliver much snow or even frost, but interesting to see the very low upper air temperatures on the charts. Overall it was nice to see batteground snowfall set-ups once again with trough disruption and low pressure sliding to the south of the UK which is something we've not seen for a while. It was certainly a big improvement overall on last winter, when we saw no snow at all here, but somewhat let down by the washout December and unseasonal Christmas. I'd probably give it 7/10. Next year, as well as snow, I'll be hoping for something a little more anticyclonic and frosty overall with a bit more sunshine and perhaps lower minima.

6.9C please

I hope I'm wrong but I'd be surprised if we had a hot, dry summer like 2006. We do seem to be going through a phase where the jet stream is prone to tracking further south than in the 90s / early 00s leading to wetter summers and cooler winters, although like June 2010 we can still get the odd decent month. It would be reasonable to expect something better than most of the last few years, and certainly last year, perhaps on a par with 2010, with at least one dry and sunny month. There are probably a few summer weather types that we've not seen much recently that are overdue - e.g. dry, cool and cloudy, or frequent thundery weather for example.

I expect a lot of those concerned about the 850s are in the eastern side of the UK and so looking for the best possible convective easterly setup, while as things stand at the moment our position here in the west may be favoured with an undercutting low scenario. Still plenty of time for things to change but as you say, 850s less of an issue for us and more important to continue to see the block positioned correctly for any Atlantic attack to slide underneath - but not too far south to miss us entirely!

Not bad! From an 'IMBY' perspective I'd like to see those isobars tighten on the western flank slicing through the channel directly between Scotland and Ireland and then swinging back east just in time to reach Carms, but hey, we've already had one great snow event this winter so certainly can't complain! (Been posted already, I know!)

Looks like it's tracking almost straight line west to east - could be something for Cardiff area if it continues. No sign of sferics as yet but we had thunder here at 3.25am last night and nothing showed on ATD for our area at that time.

Yes, looks like a possible heavy squall line if NMM is to be believed - BBC mentioned hail and thunder possible earlier in both Wales and national forecasts.

1.6C for me please.

ATD detection showing sferics off the SW coast of Pembs, but quite far out to sea at the moment. Also Cardiff area.

Probably - not too far from you and we had thunder at about 8pm. To be fair to the Met Office, I'm not sure anyone predicted widespread lightning last night - the SB CAPE was marginal to say the least and LI was positive on the NMM. Probably the effect of warmer air tracking over the sea, hitting the remnants of the cold air over the UK and being forced to rise rapidly? Certainly a wild night out there!