virtualsphere

May as well enter early - 16.9C please.

Here's the story where I am. The red dots represent lightning strikes today over the UK: Courtesy of http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html? The breakdown seems to have missed this area - clear blue skies here at the moment! The only difference to last week is that it is 23C and not 29C. Not complaining too much though, I don't think we've done so badly for storms over the last few years here as some folks have. Some fantastic photos and videos on here today - keep them coming!

Some AcCas forming here in SW Wales after a sunny morning.

To be fair, a few members in the seasonal forecast thread including Roger J Smith and Alex did predict a good summer this year (Alex singled out the possibility of a dry July back in May based on CFS v2). Snowking also forecasted the start of the warm, settled spell very well in the model threads I think. It will be interesting to see what happens after next week's potential synoptic change, as Roger's forecast was going for a dry summer throughout interspersed with some storms, while if I remember correctly Snowking was anticipating a breakdown to unsettled conditions come the end of the month and into August (apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick here). I'm hoping it will stay dry for August as my son is in school and doesn't break up until next week, and I'm hoping we can go on some trips to the seaside!

Weird to see both 1812 and 1912 in here - it would seem that years ending in '12' are destined to be dire summers. At least I won't be alive in 2112!

Good work Roger, thanks for posting your results. I'm quite surprised to see 1995 above both 1976 and 2006; I'd have expected it to have been 3rd behind both of those. It also illustrates nicely how the hottest part of the 2006 spell fell almost exatcly in to the calendar month helping to break the CET record. Nice to see 1990 in there - I remember that being a scorcher as I was 12 at the time, and remember thinking it was the hottest weather I'd experienced! It certainly feels like this current spell should feature in that chart, but perhaps the notable lack of any warm summer spells since 2006 has coloured my judgement into thinking it is warmer than it is.

I know some folks in other parts of the UK haven't done as well, but it has been a spectacular summer here in Wales so far. Definitely the best summer weather for us since 2006, even if it breaks down later next week and then rains for the whole of August. If it doesn't break down, we might even be in with a slim chance of recording a better summer than 2006 here for sunshine making it the best since 1995!

17.6C for me please

Thanks Jackone, that makes sense although slightly disappointing as I was looking forward to that kind of set up (not that the CFS will be right!)

Maybe I'm easily pleased or just in the right location, but so far we've had 10 exceptional days this June followed by 4 unsettled days. If we escape the worst of the rain in the upcoming 2 weeks and end up dry but cloudy, I'd probably class this June as a fairly good one; behind 2010 but ahead of most others since 2006. I may be wrong but that would suggest to me home-grown convection firing rather than frontal systems crossing the UK, so perhaps if the chart comes to fruition the country would be in a slack area of fairly low pressure but away from Atlantic depressions.

The front has now passed - some heavy rain and squally winds, but nothing too out of the ordinary. Looks like it's picking up a bit according to the radar though, so still potential for folks further east if it continues.

Here's the back edge CreweCold mentioned - due to pass over my location shortly, here we go...

Looking at the NMM, it seems the convective elements are anticipated to occur later in the night over parts of the S and E. The chart for 8pm from the 12Z run suggests a fairly wide area of frontal rainfall pretty much as the radar is showing. Not a lot of change before midnight, but by 3am there are some notably heavier bursts showing, while the overall area of the frontall precipitation has decreased. I did try and post some images but I think it's restricted because it's only available on Extra

The contrast between the summers of 1911 and 1912 must have been particularly stark for those who lived through them!

It's been a cracking week here - pretty much wall to wall sunshine. Even if it rains every day after the projected breakdown on Tuesday for the rest of summer it will have bettered last year!

For me, 2010 was the best June I can remember, the others that stand out for me are 1995, 1996 and 2005. I did wonder whether this is just selective memory because we've had so many bad summer months since 2007, making June 2010 stood out more than the others, but the statistics back up that it was sunnier than any June since 1975 for my area: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/actualmonthly/6/Sunshine/Wales.gif (Met Office) It probably is selective memory that 2006 isn't included, because the rest of the summer was so good that June didn't particularly stand out. Surprisingly 2004 was sunnier than 2005 according to the graph but I don't remember that being exceptional. The other interesting thing for me about that graph is the stark difference between the years before 1975 and the years afterwards. 1975, 1969, 1960, 1957, 1949, 1940 were all sunnier than 2010 and yet we've not had anything better in 38 years. On a positive note, 2013 so far is looking like it might give them some competition!

What a fantastic start to the meteorological summer! A complete contrast to last year, and a real shame that the Jubilee bank holiday wasn't moved back and extended this year to celebrate the anniversary of the Coronation. What is particularly frustrating is that the last Monday in May 2012 which would normally have been the bank holiday was such a glorious day, and that our last Monday in May 2013 bank holiday was a washout while the last 4 days have been superb... I can't complain too much though because the last two weekends have both been nice and sunny here in Wales. Still, it's nice to look back and have a laugh - worth reading this if you rely on the tabloids for forecasts http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/diamond-jubilee-bank-holiday-weather-846870 The question is - will it last? The last few days have certainly got me excited with the prospect of a decent sunny summer for the first time in what seems a long while, a bit like experiencing the first snowfall of December 2009.

14.8C for me please

I can just about beat Pembrey with 66mm recorded in total including last night just outside Cross Hands. Would certainly have been interesting to see it fall as snow!

Remarkably I've recorded more rainfall today than any day last year - 50mm and counting! We had some sleet here earlier too.

That's a fair point. I do think that having had 2 below average summers amongst the average summers we are due for a summer with above average sunshine here. That doesn't mean we'll get it though! I'm surprised at 2011 - it's probably selective memory, but I would always rate 2010 much more highly. I suppose 2011 was fairly nondescript throughout, and while June 2010 was exceptionally good, perhaps July and August were quite a bit worse than 2011. After last year I would be happy with a repeat of any of the years you mention although would probably prefer a 2010 style summer with one exceptional month rather than 3 average months. There definitely seems to have been a trend for spring and early summer to have been better in recent years as you suggest - even last year we had a decent spell in May despite the appalling June. 2007 was an exception with August being the best month of a bad bunch. I have young children, so will be hoping to have some decent weather during the school holidays in July and August.

That sounds about right! My records show we had only 6 days without rain last June - while December somehow managed to be wetter, we did at least get 10 days without rain then. I'm not even sure those 6 days were sunny. To add insult to injury, in August we only had 5 dry days. July wasn't brilliant by any means, but wasn't too bad compared to June and August. I'd take a repeat of July 2012 if it was sandwiched between another June 2010 and August 1995

That's not going to be too difficult given summer 2012 was as extreme as summer 1976 but for the wrong reasons... June 2012 was by far the wettest since at least 1910 if the Met Office data is to be believed, and the difference is even more notable in Wales: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/ The summer of 2012 as a whole is only marginally behind 1912 as the second wettest in the series and wettest for 100 years. We also had the lowest sunshine levels since 1988 in the UK, and here in Wales, the lowest since at least 1980 and possibly 1954. The sunshine statistics for Wales are interesting as we have only had 2 summers with above average sunshine since 1999: 2005 and 2006. So, statistically at least, it would be well overdue to have some sunshine this summer. A repeat of the last couple of days with slightly higher temperature values would be very welcome! Whatever we end up with this year, it must surely be better than last year in my location. Having said that, who would have thought in April 2007 that we'd have a warmer April just 4 years later?

11.1C for me please

I'm probably in the minority and sympathise with those in eastern districts of the UK wanting warmer and sunnier weather but personally I will be sad to see the current easterly spell end. We've done well in my locality for dry and sunny weather which has been most welcome after the deluges of 2012. I'm hoping we won't see too much of the dreaded NW- SE split and in the longer term the trough stays far enough out to the west so we can join in with the warmth and sunshine. Until then a little rain won't go amiss - providing it doesn't last until December barring a short break in May like last year!