virtualsphere

1993 is still my personal favourite - we had enough snow on the ground to build a snowman on the big day. 1995 was similar but with slightly less lying snow. We also had snow showers in 2004 but not enough to settle properly - just a light dusting. More recently 2009 and 2010 - Christmas Day 2009 started very cold and the roads were like an ice rink, but the day finished with some dramatic thundery showers and lightning tripped our power twice while watching TV in the evening. 2010 was great for lying snow, probably as much as I've ever seen on Christmas Day, although it was there from a few days earlier.

4.5C please

Could 2015 be in with a chance of being one of the most 'average' years on record with the least deviation from CET mean each month?

7.3C please

Thoroughly enjoying this dry spell here. There have been some very rainy spells over the last few years (notably autumn - winter 13/14), and although the rainfall amounts haven't been exceptional recently the last year has felt consistently damp here, bar April and June. Some beautiful colours on the leaves now too.

There's been no shortage of northern blocking in recent years - something that seemed in short supply in the period leading up until about 2008 - but since March 2013 it has been in the 'wrong' place for the UK (unless you like a good soaking). Take winter 2013-14, for example - the 500mb height anomaly chart shows plenty of greens and yellows over the pole, especially when compared to winter 1989-90: Take another recent winter, 2009-10. Again, plenty of those positive green and yellows showing, but they key difference for us is that area over Greenland, Canada and N USA. In 2009-10 the core of the blocking is there to deflect the Atlantic lows south, while in 2013-14 a deep negative anomaly illustrates the displaced polar vortex in just the wrong place to spawn deep areas of low pressure and send them spinning over the Atlantic. With blocking in situ over NE Europe, these get stuck over the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if that was a record negative anomaly over Ireland and western parts of the UK. Last year was quite different - a more traditional 'wet' winter pattern than 2013-14 with negative heights north of the UK and a strong block further south. 1962-63 is interesting, because for the US, Canada and north Pacific, the chart shows a very similar pattern to 2013-14. It couldn't have been more different over the UK and Europe, of course... with that large block over Greenland extending over Iceland. Anyway, a few different patterns to look out for here this coming winter! We're probably overdue in seeing a dry winter with some blocking over the UK, as in 2005-06 or 1991-92, but that doesn't mean it will happen.

I'll try 8.8C please.

I'm in an area which is prone to this kind of activity and so tonight will be interesting, although the peak for here seems to be November - January with occasional thundery episodes in October and February. September has been one of the quietest months here for convective activity in recent times, although that might be because of the synoptics we've had rather than because September can't deliver under the right conditions. I also wonder about the effect of the cooler Atlantic this year on coastal thundery showers - if I understand correctly the storms are triggered because of the temperature difference between the sea and land, as the warmer air over the sea is forced to rise as it hits the cooler land. Therefore, under normal circumstances, we get storms in a cyclonic autumn / winter SW'ly because the sea cools at a slower rate than the land, creating a greater temperature difference than in spring / summer (when the sea takes longer to warm up). So, if the ocean is cooler than usual, presumably this would inhibit storm development?

After two decent summers in 2013 and 2014, this summer has generally been poor here, although by no means as bad as 2012 and 2008. Earlier this month I'd have expected it to beat 2007 too but August has turned out poorer than I'd expected, so now I'm not so sure. This summer now feels more like a reversed and slightly less wet version of 2007 which had a poor June / July and reasonable August, with June being the reasonable month this time around. In between the rain, we've had some decent sunny spells, but the trouble has been the lack of any prolonged settled spell making any outdoor plans difficult, especially during the school holidays. August is fast becoming a frustrating month - we're definitely overdue a dry one here, as even in the good summer last year and 2013 it was a bit of a let down. Having said that I felt the same way about July between 2007 and 2012, then we had July 2013 which was one of the best summer months I can remember. On a positive note, when we have had dry weather there's been some sunshine to break through the cloud cover. The stats: Summer 2012 - Rainfall 633mm - Days Thunder Heard 2 - Dry Days 23 Summer 2013 - Rainfall 316mm* - Days Thunder Heard 1 - Dry Days 54 Summer 2014 - Rainfall 281mm* - Days Thunder Heard 3 - Dry Days 45 Summer 2015 to 27/8 - Rainfall 428mm* - Days Thunder Heard 1 - Dry Days 32 *Mainly in August!

14.6C please

17.2 please. Hoping for an improvement on July.

We didn't get any storms last night, but I thought somewhere probably would after these clouds passed overhead about 8pm! Sadly the pictures don't really do them justice.

17.9C please

Yes we had a very thundery period here last autumn - 4 thunder days here between 6 - 11th October and a further 2 days on 2nd & 9th November. Last year was probably the most thundery year I can remember since at least 2000 with thunder heard during 8 months out of 12. This year hasn't been anywhere near as stormy (only 2 days so far), but overall I think if anything the frequency of storms has increased slightly here since about 2007 - probably because we get a lot of thundery showers from a returning polar maritime SW airstream. Dec 2013 - Jan 2014, and November 2009 were similar periods. Certainly the frequency of continental plume storms has decreased here though, so while we've heard more thunder it has been from Atlantic lows in the Autumn-Winter period rather than severe summer storms with prolific lightning. It is unusual to experience severe storms in this area being located close to the west coast though.

I've often wondered about the hail / storm reports from that period - whether the conditions really were more extreme and, if so, what synoptic pattern caused this - or whether the greater reliance on agriculture and more manual methods with greater frequency of outdoor working, combined with the fact that it was actually quite a long period so hard to compare to our 'current' conditions, actually masks the fact violent storms were just as rare as today. By the last bit I mean that to compare a period of, say, 1650 - 1800 with the present you would need to include the last 150 years in the 'present'.

That would make sense given that Atlantic lows provide some of the warmer conditions in winter while a continental influence generally provides the coldest. In the summer, a continental flow would generally aid warmer conditions than westerlies off the Atlantic, so if the longer term solar patterns have an effect on the position of the jet stream leading to a more continental pattern for the UK and less Atlantic influence we could expect some colder winters and possibly some warm summer months too. Interestingly if we are starting from warmer baseline conditions, should this happen I suppose it is possible similar synoptics to the months you mention could even return slightly higher CET figures.

16.2C please

10.2C for me please.

7.7C for me please.

The second half of May 2012 was stunning here making it probably the best month in an otherwise atrocious year - the summer was awful.

Nice pics. Assuming that's a transit van I'm pretty sure that's 1982, as they weren't launched until later in the 1960s (unless you had that much snow in 1979?).

5.2C please

I know this is as far into FI as you can get and posted for fun, but the GFS 18z does on a very broad level at least mirror the thoughts of some of the experts on here and also the Met O - current northerly leads to UK high, this sticks around for a while before slowly sinking and allowing the jet to ride over the top sending depressions to our north which then take a dive SE bringing a further, possibly potent northerly. Of course a lot could change by then - but I'm not writing off February just yet!

Yes, doesn't look like it'll get to Wales - Met Office have it heading due south and ending up in Hampshire around 6am. If there are any westward corrections I'd doubt very much it would cross this far east but maybe those on the border would see a few flakes.

You're not too far from me (just outside Cross Hands), and sadly I'd say probably not. Looking at the current radar, any precipitation is confined to the far SW (Pembs). Current models suggest this will remain the case overnight, possibly heading further west if anything. Happy to be wrong though! e.g. Euro4 for midnight: