virtualsphere

Yes, there was some interesting research mentioned in last year's Netweather winter forecast which showed that the biggest connection between the NAO and solar activity is actually a trend towards +NAO and the declining part of the cycle. Original forecast here with more info: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2016;sess=# Based on the graph, we're still in declining and likely to be until 2019. Winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 both look to have been in the minimum phase, once activity has bottomed out and is very gradually increasing. Interestingly even Feb 2009, the first significant cold spell for many years here, was just after activity had hit rock bottom if I've read the graph correctly. The other fascinating thing about this analysis is that while many associate solar minimum with a greater likelihood of -NAO and the potential for colder UK winter weather, historically it seems both ascending and solar maximum are just as likely to result in -NAO, this just hasn't occurred in maximum for a couple of cycles. The isolated dark blue -NAO in the descending phase of cycle 17 is an interesting exception and seems to correspond with winter 1939-40.

Yes - it certainly feels like that, and although we don't yet know for certain August will be a washout, the outlook doesn't look promising. Where we have had decent summer weather in recent years it seems to have fallen outside the school holidays. I don't remember this being the case when I was in school (I remember warm sunny spells in the holidays in 1989, 1990, 1991 and 1995) or the weather improving dramatically in September, so I've had a look to see if I was lucky or if this nasty run of late summer weather is a recent trend / unfortunate coincidence. Notice in these graphs the lack of any notably below average rainfall in August since 2003: Recent sunshine average for August is also down: Temperature is generally up, although with nothing notably hot since 2004: Either side of the main school holiday month, after a poor run of Julys for sunshine between 2007 and 2012 we had two very sunny ones in a row in 2013 & 2014: ...and September sunshine seems to have gone the opposite way to August, with an upward trend and 2008 standing out as the only particularly dull September since around 2001: We've actually not had a notably wet September since 2000 - in fact September rainfall has been significantly lower since then with 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1995, 1999 and 2000 all being wetter than anything since the turn of the century. So yes, those kids who've been in school since about 2004 really do seem have been unlucky when it comes to the summer break! The longer term graphs don't show any reason why this trend should continue, though, so hopefully it will even out in the long run... maybe after a wet start August 2017 will buck the trend? Graph source: Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

We had a 3 week family holiday travelling around Scotland in August 1987 - I was only 9 at the time but remember parts of the trip well and one thing I can recall is the lack of heat. I remember feeling cold dressed in shorts & t-shirt and have photos in which I'm wearing a large duffle coat! Having said that I don't remember any problems with rain spoiling the trip, we did manage a lot of outdoor activities although being a kid it is possible my parents planned these around any rainy days without my realising. Of course the weather in Scotland doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't a scorchingly hot month in England, Wales or Ireland, but given the recollections of others here I doubt it!

17.2C please.

16.7C please.

16.2C please

It would be a nice change for the dry conditions to continue through the summer and for the correction to take place in early September. We've had some very wet summers (2007, 2008, 2012) and winters (2013/14 and 2015/16) recently, but we usually seem to get at least one decent autumn month. 2014 and 2015 were particularly frustrating wet Augusts followed by dry early autumn weather when the kids were back in school. At least we've had some drier summers since 2013 though.

Difficult one to call but I'll go for a cooler 10.2C.

Nice to top the monthly competition - thought I'd gone way too high but turns out I was slightly on the low side!

March actually finished as quite a wet month here (certainly compared to many recent Marches) - the wettest March in Wales since 2006 (also after a dry winter) and second wettest since 1998. It was also the wettest month since last September and the second wettest month since January 2016, although not a complete washout as some of the intervening months have been quite dry. Looking at this graph, I'm glad I don't remember March 1981!

9.8C please

7.8C for me please.

This one still brought the deepest single snowfall I can remember, on 9th Feb. As @I remember Atlantic 252 mentioned the snow had been predicted to turn to rain, but all fell as snow, and we ended up with nearly a foot. My workplace closed early due to the weather but I couldn't get home as the A48 had closed. We had a similar depth of snow in 2010 which accumulated over a couple of weeks, but as a single event I don't think we've had anything like it since January 1982, which I sadly can't remember well as I was only 3. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6344685.stm As @CreweCold says, the winter was very memorable for that one event. Sadly it rained on the Saturday and the snow melted fairly rapidly so we never had a chance to go out and enjoy it properly.

4.9C please

That's an interesting observation - it reminded me of this post from @Catacol I read earlier which suggested that based on MJO forcing we may see an increasing likelihood of high lat blocking into Feb. I'm not sure what the MJO evolution was in Feb '91, could it be a similar evolution to that currently being modelled perhaps?

6.4C please, I feel it could be a disappointingly warm month but hope I'm wrong!

I completely agree that lying snow has become less frequent, but surely the 1981 - 2010 chart for December would be skewed by the inclusion of both Dec 1981 and 2010 in the data? So it wouldn't really be that realistic to expect that much lying snow in December anyway?

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a better chance at an easterly spell during this winter - this is just a guess, but I've noticed a few notable easterly charts pop up throughout the year with some quite unusual synoptics. In May and June, for example, we had several days of home-grown thunderstorms here in SW Wales due to a convergence zone setup within an easterly / north easterly flow and sea breezes from the SW - this is very unusual and I can't remember it happening before, certainly not in the last 10 years or so. e.g. We had storms on this day: Some other examples: In general, since last winter we've seen some strong blocking anomalies to the NE and quite a muted signal elsewhere: ...which certainly compares to the same period last year, preceding that record warm December: Obviously this isn't a scientific observation and it doesn't mean the setup will occur again during the winter season, especially if the polar vortex strengthens and introduces a greater chance of a zonal flow, but if there are no strong drivers to push the atmosphere into a different state then I wonder if we'll have a greater chance of a continental easterly this season than in recent years? Compare this to 2010, preceding the exceptionally cold December - notable heights over Greenland throughout the April to November period: As a caveat I should point out this doesn't always work - in 2014 a similar anomaly to this year didn't result in an easterly winter. I've just watched Gav's winter forecast (posted by Summer Sun above) and interesting that he's going for a possibility of Scandinavian blocking as well.

A couple of links to some excellent posts by Roger J Smith from the Seasonal Forecast thread a while back which could be relevant to this discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3348870 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3422950 Also worth reading the NW winter forecast if you haven't already, with some discussion of solar flux and the impact on UK winter: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2016;sess= The research would seem to indicate that sunspot peaks aren't necessarily a bad thing for colder UK winters, e.g. 1947 - but the descending phase of the cycle seems to have more of a link to a +NAO and therefore a reduced chance of cold for us. I'm sure I've read previously (but can't find the link at present) that increases in solar activity can actually affect the synoptic setup in different ways depending on other background factors such as ENSO / QBO etc., and so while an uptick in solar activity now might change the outlook towards a colder set-up, the same uptick might actually increase the potential for a colder outbreak if other teleconnections are in a different phase.

I wonder if my 5.7 is in with a shout. Hopefully a few downward corrections come into play!

3.4C for me please.

Excellent - thanks for the links, I didn't realise you could get such detailed data going back that far, so that's really useful. The paper also looks interesting, thanks Lorenzo - off to read now! Thanks for posting your methodology as well, I can see even more work has gone into your forecast 'behind the scenes'.

Re-reading this again and one thing in particular from the posted charts that stands out for me is that isolated dark blue rectangle amongst the oranges in the declining solar / NAO chart. If I've read the forecast as intended, I believe this is what we'd be looking at - another blue block in this line for a negative NAO in a declining solar flux regime? Is that blue block in cycle 17 winter 1939-40? The chart archive suggests Nov 1939 wasn't really similar to the current November with quite an unsettled zonal flow, but high pressure builds in to the UK and then Greenland after mid-Dec 1939 bringing a setup which seems to resemble perhaps what the winter forecast might suggest? I doubt 1939-40 is a valid analogue to our current setup given this was a strong solar cycle and the sea ice extent must have been much greater than today's record minimum, but thought it was an interesting anomaly. Does anyone know whether there were any other similarities in 1939, e.g. ENSO etc? I guess stratospheric data isn't available that far back? Of course I could have misread the chart and this could be a completely different winter...

Yes, I have to admit I've really enjoyed autumn this year. While we've had quite a few dry autumn spells in the last few years, they seem to have been of the warm variety or earlier in the autumn (eg Sept '14) so it's been a refreshing change to have something a little colder without having to endure the usual zonal fayre. The lack of any significant gales here until last weekend's storm also kept the leaves on the trees long enough to produce some beautiful autumn colours - can't recall anything similar in a long time. Here's hoping for a more seasonal winter too!

A very well explained technical forecast and a thoroughly enjoyable read as usual - thanks for all the effort you've put in. A shame Chionomaniac wasn't able to input this year but great to see Matt Hugo, another very well respected forecaster, on board with Lorenzo. Thanks to Netweather as well for keeping these excellent forecasts free of charge! Looking forward to the regular updates as well.