virtualsphere

For me here in SW Wales... Best / worst: January 2010 / 2014 February 2010 / 2014 March 2012 / 2018 April 2011 / 2012 May 2012 / 2015 June 2010 / 2012 July 2013 / 2012 August 2011 (not great but the best of a bad bunch!) / 2012 September 2014 / 2017 October 2016 / 2014 November 2016 / 2015 December 2010 / 2015

14.7C and 92mm please

13.2C and 83mm please, apologies for the late entry

24.4C - Lincolnshire, Easter Monday

8.2C and 59mm please

I wonder if it is due to ocean temperatures rising more quickly than land temperatures? Therefore the period more prone to westerly / Atlantic driven conditions would see a greater chance of higher temperatures and April - June, being more prone to continental weather, and continental weather itself being more likely to deliver record highs than in winter, would be less affected?

5.5C please, going for a colder March than February.

If I remember the research correctly, I think there may actually be more of a correlation between the descending part of the solar cycle and +NAO periods (bringing a higher chance of milder UK winters) rather than solar minimum reliably bringing -NAO and colder weather, although this has happened at minimum in several of the last few cycles such as 2010, winter 1995/96. So we could think of the period leading up to the cold spell in late Feb / early March 2018 as the milder period associated with the descending cycle and we're now moving out of this into minimum bringing a greater chance of -NAO and therefore potential colder UK synoptics - similar to the milder winters in the descending cycle leading up to the cold spells starting in Feb 2009 last time around. Worth looking at where Dec 2010 and March 2013 sit on the charts Yarmy posted above, which are more in line with the ascending or even max phases of the cycle. You could even argue that last winter's late cold easterly is more towards the end of the descending phase of the cycle and we're now where we were around the end of 2008 or early 2009. If this is the case, there's still more of a chance of colder winter periods over the next few years than we would have seen in the descending period from 2014 to 2018. If I remember correctly I think there were also some -NAO winters associated with solar max periods although we've had more +NAO in recent maxima. Obviously there's also the much colder periods associated with long minima in the past such as the Maunder and Dalton periods, but in terms of variation within individual cycles we're not completely reliant on flatlining to bring colder weather. e.g. early 1979 was the ascending part of cycle 21 and Dec 1981 was around or just after solar max. Frustratingly I don't have the papers to hand so hopefully someone will correct me if I've misremembered though.

Yes, although the next week or so isn't look promising for cold, we've seen how quickly things can change either way - e.g. from a progged deep cold setup never materialising in Dec 2012 or earlier in Jan this year, to the unexpected extension of the cold in Jan 2013 - so not worth writing anything off after day 7 - 10, which still only just takes us past the first week in Feb. The Atlantic systems aren't with us yet and the models could be overestimating the strength and / or longevity of the pattern. We've also seen how areas of low pressure have corrected south on the models closer to verification this season, like the system which brought the snow this week. Worth keeping a watching eye out for changes if you like cold weather I think.

4.4C and 83mm please

Also worth mentioning we've experienced significantly cold December (2010), January (2010) and March (2013) CETs in recent years, so there's no reason we shouldn't see a cold February either despite the overall warming trend.

Maybe not the wettest summer bit though! I wasn't around in 1956 but it can't have felt much worse than 2012 surely - wouldn't want a repeat of that...

Certainly seems so, though we were spolied with some nice wintry Decembers in the 1990s and 2000s culminating in the rather epic 2010 - so perhaps the disappointing early winters since then are just nature balancing things back out again. Although I enjoy snow at any time, there's something quite magical about wintry weather in the run up to & over Xmas - even if it's just a hard frost followed by a crisp sunny day.

According to this, there have been a few spots already observed from SC25 - http://www.stce.be/news/422/welcome.html The curve in the graph does appear to rise a little quicker than I would have expected given the curve between 2008 and 2010. I'm not sure how accurately drawn the prediction curves are though if you look at the one at in the image at the top of this article: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-24-status-and-solar-cycle-25-upcoming-forecast This article suggests we shouldn't expect to see much cycle 25 activity "before the middle of 2019 at the earliest" http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2626

Roger, I wondered if you are intending to post an update on your winter LRF? From my novice perspective it seems your timings have been quite accurate (switch from mobile to blocking aroind Xmas) but perhaps the block hasn't set up as far north as you anticipated? If so, does this impact your original forecast for a second cold spell towards the end of January? Any thoughts welcome, always enjoy reading your LRFs.

3.8C and 84mm please.

Anything exceptionally wet and windy - winter 2013/14 the worst, particularly unseasonal weather in the Christmas holidays, and having our chimney blown off the roof on New Year's Day was the last straw. Don't recall much sunshine here either, but in the far west of Wales south-westerlies tend to be dull and showery. Also summers 2008 and 2012 for the incessant rainfall and lack of any sunshine.

Sorry, forgot to enter the precip contest and can't edit my original post - please can I add 132mm? Ta.

5.6C please.

SC25 likely to be slightly weaker than the current cycle - the authors evaluated the predictions previously made using a similar model in 2016 and were happy that observations have been in line with those predicted. They also ran simulations which indicate that the current weak cycle is not isolated but the first in a "modern Gleissburg minimum" (a 90 - 100 year cycle observed in various datasets, including those going back to 450AD) As for further in the future...

9th October 2004 - cloudy, but dry at least. Remember it being quite chilly while posing for wedding photos afterwards outside. Looking back on the charts for that period, it could have been quite an interesting one if they'd occurred in the depths of winter!

Interesting prediction for SC25 - behind a paywall at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL078387 but there's a pre-print version here https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.04868 This compares to previous predictions that SC25 would be similar to SC24: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05106 This is another interesting paper on the longer term solar cycle, and predictability of minima: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JA019478

7.2C and 140mm please

11.3C and 86mm please.

This article is interesting - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782 The research suggests a 0 - 2 year lagged response in late winter (...March 2018? February 2009? but March 2013 doesn't really fit with the pattern) and a 2 - 4 year lagged response in early winter (December 2010?). Perhaps there's a reverse effect with some of the mild zonal winters in the middle of the cycle too, e.g. 2013-14 and Dec 2015 after solar max. The article does say the results should be treated with caution, though, as the data only spans 58 years. This NOAA presentation mentions that early indications of solar cycle 25 suggest it may be as large as the current one (slides 21 - 23): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What Happened to Those Sunspots.pdf