virtualsphere

15.4C and 52mm please.

16.7C please

16.6C and 89mm please.

17.4C and 70mm please.

Whoops a bit late. 13.5C and 72mm please.

7.6C and 88mm please.

Still all to play for based on these snow depth charts from the higher res models up to 6pm Friday, with quite large differences showing, so don't be too concerned over any individual model / individual run - if you're not expecting much, keep an eye on the radar / window tomorrow and you never know...

Sadly I was only 3 in 1982, though my Dad tells me the snow was over my head and he had to carry me on his shoulders Some good video footage of the event here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-42615172

Accumulation pattern fairly similar to the Hirlam model posted earlier - perhaps a bit high as those are for tomorrow only - here are the 48 hour accumulations predicted up to Friday lunchtime: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=48&mode=45&map=430 Compared to the Arpege model which has less in the west but more in the east / mid Wales: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=48&mode=45&map=300 Either way, looks like quite an eventful couple of days coming up! Freezing rain is the other thing to look out for, Hirlam shows rain in western parts in the early hours of Friday.

HIRLAM is available to view here: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php Shows perhaps more snow than forecast overnight tonight for central areas of Wales and then more snow towards western parts tomorrow evening and night - so perhaps less of a snow shield here in Carmarthenshire...

Is there still any chance of setting a daily CET record for 28th? When was the last time we set a cold record, was it 2010 or do we have to go back further?

Could we get a lower minimum in spring than winter, if it's lower tomorrow night than tonight?

4.6C and 52mm please.

5.7C and 43mm please.

Potential squall line nicely illustrated on the MetO forecast rainfall charts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1516730400&zoom=6&lon=-2.65&lat=52.48

6.1C and 148mm please.

3.7C and 75mm please.

The mention of 1932-33 is interesting. Round here that winter is legendary for producing one of the biggest blizzards the area has ever seen. One thing missing from even the recent colder winters has been a severe individual snowfall event (Feb 2007 is actually the biggest in recent memory; we had similar depths in 2010 but this built up over several days). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8209333/Britains-coldest-winters-on-record-in-pictures.html?image=19

I'll try 8.8C please, and hope I've gone way too mild!

My memory might be playing tricks on me but I'm fairly sure 2014-15 was wet and stormy here in the west too. It may not have felt as stormy, being book-ended by two of the wettest and stormiest on record, 13/14 and 15/16, but I'm sure it was generally more cyclonic / zonal than anything from around 2008 to 2012. I remember thinking last year was a welcome respite from storms after several years, despite the lack of snow. I'm not expecting anything noteworthy in the way of cold this year but we're probably overdue a winter with a short sharp cold snap or northerly toppler after several very mild ones preceded by a few with more significant cold (eg Mar 2013 / Dec 2010) - seems unusual we haven't seen anything in between the two extremes recently.

11.4C please

Brief power cut here - now back on again after 2 or 3 minutes. Winds really picked up over the last couple of hours.

1950 is an interesting comparison also. I'm not old enough to remember, but the data shows a warm June and notably wet September. The August CET also identical to 2017 and overall spring and summer rainfall totals are very similar (June appears to have been more anticyclonic despite the similar CET value). October 1950 was warmer than 1992 but was much drier after the wet start to Autumn, but like 1992 it then turned wetter into November. Both 1992 and 1950 featured a colder December than we've been used to recently (1.2C in 1950 and 3.6C in 1992).

Yes, note the general increase in activity at the end of 2006 (crudely highlighted in the graph below) at a similar point in the cycle to currently. Although the graph doesn't yet include September, it looks like we are still on the descending curve of the cycle towards minimum. To my limited knowledge, even in more active cycles you'd expect to see a greater descent before activity picks up again: This article suggests we saw the first SC25 spot back in December last year, but that the cycles actually overlap over a 4 year period http://www.stce.be/node/359 ..and it's worth noting the comments in this forum which quote the NOAA as announcing the first SC24 spot has appeared back in 2008- before the minimum of 2009/10: https://www.ssca.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5208 Some researchers believe that the next cycle could be more active than the current one, however - e.g. http://www.spaceclimate.fi/SC6/presentations/session2a/Dean_Pesnell_SC6.pdf (slide 13)

Since the year doesn't end in 5, 6 or 9 I don't think it'll be in contention for the warmest September, so I'll go with a rather average 14.1C please.