virtualsphere

Thunder heard here in Carmarthen. No rain as yet.

I'll try 16.2C please - surprisingly June has only been over 16C once since 1976 (in 2003), while between 1940 and 1976 the 16C mark was exceeded once a decade in 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970.

A few photos from this afternoon's storm - nothing spectacular as it was pretty much featureless grey rain underneath although the rainfall and thunder were impressive. I don't think I was under the core of the storm as the radar rates went to the top of the scale, suggesting hail, and we only had rain. You can just about make out towers building in the background of this one. Instead of continuous rain, it eased off several times and then started again, so I think the storm may have been backbuilding with new cells forming as the old passed over and eased. Minor flash flooding in Tesco Nice rainbow on my way home afterwards from a new showers towards Swansea.

Currently under Carmarthen storm. Torrential rain with frequent thunder here. Unfortunately I don't have a good view from my office so not seen any lightning yet!

Definitely agree regarding August and September. I remember some decent Augusts in the summer holidays back when I was in school in the 80s and 90s - but since my son started school a few years back we've been struggling to find good weather to get out and about in the holidays only for conditions to improve as soon as he goes back in September. The Met Office stats certainly back up your thoughts: August Sunshine - not had 180+ hours since 2005. The longest since the 1960s, backing up Pete's comments about the poor 1960s Augusts above. Rainfall on the up (although not quite as bad recently as 1992, which I remember well as being very wet after the good August summer holiday in 1991): The smoothed black average in the September graphs almost look like an inverse of August. Rainfall down and sunshine up! Graphs from: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly We had a run of dreadful Julys here between 2007 and 2012, but that ended abruptly in 2013 with a very welcome warm and sunny month. Let's hope August breaks the cycle this year, I'll be quite happy if we have to endure a wet September instead!

10.2C please

9.8C please

Possibly the second worst winter I've experienced, with only 2013-14 being worse. Here in SW Wales we recorded 77 days of consecutive rain from 3rd November until 18th January, with very little sunshine at all in that period. We haven't had any snowfall this winter bar a few flakes on 15th January, but for me the winter was depressing for the relentless rain and dull weather coinciding almost exactly with the period of shortest daylight, with no opportunity to spend any decent length of time outdoors during the Christmas holiday - given the right conditions, this can be a great time of year to go for a seasonal winter walk in crisp, bright frosty weather (e.g. Dec 2008, 2009, 2010). February hasn't been a bad month and for me has put the winter slightly ahead of 2013-14. It has been nice to see more of the sun recently and also record a few frosts, despite the lack of snow. For most of the time, though, it has felt more like a very dull autumn than winter. Interesting that folks in more eastern areas of the UK have seen sunnier conditions (but not surprising given the westerly pattern). A third disappointing winter in a row but nothing too exceptional about that - and we did do very well in winter here between 2009 and 2013. It is remarkable that we've recorded the two wettest winters in Wales in the space of 3 years though.

4.0C for me please

Thanks for replying - I'd not thought about the date but that makes sense.

Presumably you'd expect some cooling in the northern hemisphere at this time of year due to winter and the lag in ocean cooling compared to the surface? Or is this not the case? Not sure about the southern hemisphere though - if my thinking is correct you'd expect warming to show, which those charts don't. I also wonder if the colours are a little misleading, because the blue and yellow in the centre of the chart are visibly different but could just relate to small differences depending on whether the temperature is just below or just above the mid-point. Not disagreeing with anyone, just an observation which could explain why the second chart appears to be so much cooler.

Although this is very true, it seems to also be a strange quirk of the statistics that these things often seem to repeat quite quickly - e.g. April 2007 was the warmest by a long way, but then beaten in 2011; a string of colder than average Decembers in the 2000s was followed by December 2010, after which we've endured four milder wet ones on the trot culminating in the record breaking mild & wet of 2015; after a string of pretty wet summers we had 2 decent summers in a row in 2013 & 2014 and so on. We might therefore be more likely to have an 'extreme' March following 2012/13 rather than an extreme May, which seems to have produced nothing notable in recent years. Having said that I'd be less confident of a March 2013 repeat, as that spell followed on from a notable cold spell in January, and more blocked weather the previous few winters. Since autumn 2013 similar cold / blocked spells in the winter half of the year seem to be harder to come by as the weather seems more zonal in general. It's got to change at some point though!

I'll risk bombing out of the contest with a guess of 2.7C. I'm hoping the likely mild conditions as we approach the end of January will be replaced by something more seasonal, as the PV moves away and we see an El Nino 1983-esque February rather than a repeat of 1998.

It really has been grim here. Today was remarkable simply for being the first completely dry day of the winter so far and we're over half way through! If tomorrow is also dry, as expected, it will be the first time we've had two consecutive dry days since Nov 2nd. It was nice to see the sun again today also - been very dull recently.

A nice description of a snow squall in April 1908 from Philip Eden: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-1908-snowstorm.htm The thundersnow event of 28th January 2004 being a more recent example: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2004/january

Thanks- interesting read. I did wonder about a possible solar cycle link when I saw the 11 year interval between the years you listed.

Was there a cold anomaly in 2004 also, or is it just a coincidence that 1982 / 1993 anomalies were separated by 11 years and then 22 to 2015?

6.3C please.

Possibly some good news - compared to the chart I posted above, it now looks like it might get a bit drier in the medium term between Christmas and New Year. Not much colder though - more a gradual climbdown from exceptional warmth to slightly above average.

I'd gladly take that over the current weather here - I don't mind the idea of a record-breaking warm December but I'm not keen on the relentless wet weather and lack of sunshine we've experienced since the beginning of November. The problem with warm temperatures at this time of year is that they generally come from cloudy, wet conditions associated with a S-SW flow. I'd actually prefer a warm January than December, as Christmas just seems much more seasonal when the weather is cold and frosty, even if there's no snow. Sadly any change to anticyclonic weather looks just that little bit too late to fit in with the festive season this year, which is a shame as this will be the fourth similar December in succession after a great run of seasonal Decembers in the 2000s leading up to 2010. Last year wasn't too bad in comparison, but 2012 and 2013 were dire in the run up to Christmas and this year looks like following suit. On a positive note, though, it'll be good to save on the heating bills!

Yes, based on the El Nino you could go either way with Feb. Just looking at Feb 1983 & 1998 the surface pressure patterns in the NH are fairly similar, except in the vicinity of the UK which brought very different conditions to our shores. This is where the expertise of the NW forecast team, and also RJS / BFTP and all the other long range forecasters comes into its own - what other drivers will influence the pattern further into the winter, e.g. SSW, and how will these affect our part of the globe? It's a good illustration of how difficult it is to try and predict the weather that far in advance, so credit is due to all who have a go. Still all to play for later this winter, despite the El Nino.

Make the most of any colder weather now, as it's due to get mild again shortly and unfortunately looks very wet in the medium term: For those looking for something colder there's still scope for the models to change before Christmas, but not looking too promising at this stage.

Between 1910 and 1925 you could expect a sub-3C November every 5 years or so - and then none since! Rather than a gradual trend towards warmth, quite a dramatic turn away from cold Novembers from 1925, then a fairly static period, and then a dramatic lurch to warmth from 1994 onwards.

I started a thread about this in the storm forum a few years back: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75379-thunder-at-christmas/ The 2009 event was the biggest, with several very close strikes which knocked our power off twice. In 1997 we just had a single strike (although a very loud one!).

A mixed autumn here - a very enjoyable October sandwiched between a nondescript September and a very dull, wet November. I'm actually surprised November hasn't broken any rainfall records but it seems the worst has been held out here towards the west - the Reading link posted above by Stargazer shows below average rainfall for November: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/weatherdata/Reading_monthly_summaries.html This is backed up by the Met Office blog post Summer Sun mentioned - http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/27/warm-november-on-course-to-equal-record-in-england/ - which shows the highest rainfall in N England and S Scotland; I'm surprised we're not higher here in SW Wales but the last week will certainly have added to the total. It has been very dull here too, but the sunshine total may have been boosted by the first couple of days of November here with the unsettled weather not kicking in until 3rd. It would have been nice to have seen more frost weather this autumn but from a personal perspective I have just converted my garden shed into an office and so the mild November has helped keep down the heating bill!