virtualsphere

This winter has been by far the worst I can remember, both for the lack of cold weather and the incessant rain. In recent years, 2011-12 would be second - rather benign with no 'bad' weather but no snow at all here, the only other winter without snow since at least 2003. 2007-08 probably third. If I had to go further back, this winter would probably still be the worst, but some winters between 1988 and 2003 would probably rate lower than 11-12 and 07-08. Similarly, I would rate 2012 as the worst summer I can remember due to the lack of sunny weather and incessant rain, followed by 2008 and then 2007.

Derek Brockway confirmed on BBC Wales Today that this has now overtaken 1994-5 as the wettest winter on record in Wales (going back to 1910). No sign of the rain stopping yet either...

I'd forgotten about Ian Pennell's forecast and was curious enough to dig it out after reading this thread - here's a link for anyone who hasn't read it: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78219-late-autumn-and-winter-201314-mild-stormy-short-cold-snaps-later/ Probably the best forecast I've read for this winter. As others have said, another good forecast from Roger J Smith too. I didn't think the Netweather forecast was too bad - if you read the technical version, chionomaniac wasn't far off with the actual pattern for Jan / Feb, e.g.: "Average precipitation is likely with the UK to be situated in between a negatively tilted Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge. This pattern is likely to become more dominant as the month progresses and stratospheric influences during this month will determine which air mass will eventually be dominant over the UK. " Unfortunately for us, the Atlantic trough proved too dominant, but the prediction of the overall pattern was there with two outcomes for Feb based on the possibility of the SSW occurring or not. Again, unfortunately we've ended up with the mild and wet one! I may be wrong but would think extremes like this winter are hard to forecast; because most LRFs involve analogues of some kind, it would be difficult to pinpoint a record breaking pattern where the nearest matches are not as intense as the actual event and we only have data going back 100 or so years, which is such a small dataset in climatological terms. This is why I am slightly wary of anyone who forecasts record breaking cold every year!

190mm here so far this month, compared to 397mm last month.. Lovely day today, first calm day with plenty of sunshine in a long while - glad it at was the weekend!

Very true indeed, but that's what makes it so special when it arrives

Yes, I'd take a repeat of summer 1989 or 1995, or even 2013 which was a big improvement on summers 2007,8,9,11,12. A dry spring would be nice first as long as it isn't followed by a wet summer - far too many of those recently! Interesting comment re. snowfalls, I think some places in the NE did well in Nov-Dec 2010 due to convective snowfall. We did well here for snow in 2010, but it built up over time with several smaller falls rather than a blizzard with high winds which is something that has been missing from recent cold spells in the south.

Bring it on!

Agree - the temperatures recorded in Nov / Dec 2010 would have been exceptional even if they were recorded January or February, and it was great to experience such weather at that time of year which was unprecedented and very seasonal. I just can't help but wonder what temperatures would have been recorded if the synoptic pattern had occurred a month later and been Dec into Jan. Especially given that we had a very cold March last year, after such a long period with very little notable cold between 1997 and 2008, the occurrence of two exceptional months either side of the Jan / Feb period makes me wonder if we will see something occur at just the right time for optimum cold in the near future. Perhaps not, or perhaps we'll be unlucky and get another 2013-14 winter or experience a very cold summer month, but the recent spells of exceptional weather (rainfall, cold, warmth - e.g. April 2011, etc.) suggest anything is possible while synoptic patterns continue to be so persistent! What I'd actually like to see is a long spell of dry weather regardless of temperature... I'm too young to remember summer 1976 but remember reading that the heavens opened at the end of the drought. Maybe we'll see a reverse scenario this time and some prolonged dry conditions after this wet spell!

This certainly has been a vile winter (unless you're a duck) - my son has recently taken an interest in the moon, and I realised this evening while putting him to bed that I haven't even been able to look out of the window to show him the moon since well before Christmas because it has always been raining, or at least cloudy! Let's put a positive spin on it from an amateur perspective - for surface weather, I'd take even a winter like 1988-89 over this one, but from a synoptic point of view there are some crumbs of comfort for cold weather fans which can be taken into next year. Firstly, we have seen some signs of blocking to the north developing once again even without the best stratospheric conditions - albeit in the wrong place to help us gain any cold in the UK. We've seen cold air displaced to the south, but affecting the US rather than our part of the world. We've also seen a Scandi high, but without the right overall synoptic pattern to bring the cold to us from the east. We've seen the jetstream further south again, and instead of a prolonged Bartlett high scenario with lows pushing across to the north we have seen the depressions track further south - unfortunately for us, right over the UK in many cases. In terms of confidence of a cold spell in forthcoming winters, I'd rather be in 2013-14 than 1988-89, even though we've had to endure some awful surface conditions. We've seen two prolonged notable cold periods in the recent past - Nov / Dec 2010 and Feb - Apr 2013 - if either of these had occurred between mid-Dec and mid-Feb, we would have seen a severe winter spell. Another observation of interest is the tendency in March last year for significant snowfall from undercutting lows against a block to the north and, although it didn't happen, there were signs in the models that we could have come close to this situation again towards the end of January if the jetstream hadn't been too strong. Something to look out for next year if we end up with a weaker PV and Atlantic jet. CET for Winter 1795-6 = 6.2C I wonder if the synoptics were similar to this year?

We're usually more exposed to SW'lies here, although that is in terms of rain. Our chimney cowling came off in the winds of New Years day. The difference in direction could be why I can hear it howling from the front room tonight though!

Wind howling here for the last couple of hours - should be used to it by now though I guess!

January rainfall data now available from the Met Office, and it has been the wettest January in Wales since 1948, the third wettest in the series going back to 1910 (1928 was slightly wetter). With January rainfall coming in at 269mm, this will become the wettest winter on record in Wales if February records more than 193mm. For the sake of those affected by the floods, hopefully it won't happen - or if it does, that we get there with minimal harm to life and property. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

A fair assessment there and a good read BFTV - I've enjoyed reading your forecasts and hope you'll be posting more for spring and summer when the time comes. Reading through some of the winter forecasts again and it does look like a good forecast from RJS once again (assuming current modelling verifies for Feb, which I'm hoping it won't). I have to admit to being a little concerned when Roger posted his original winter forecast following his forecasts for summer 2013, particularly July, and previous winters. Credit also to chionomaniac's NW forecast especially for Jan & Feb - having seen the two options for Feb reposted in the strat thread earlier this week it does look like a very good assessment of the possible outcomes based on the current pattern - with the less popular one now unfortunately looking like coming out on top. With a month to go, still too early of course to be certain of the outcome for the whole of Feb, and respect to anyone who attempts a LRF considering the work involved and the amount of data available to use. The more detail that is included, the harder it must be to get the forecast to verify, particularly when a forecast includes the evolution of the synoptic patterns rather than just rain / snow. Hope to see more forecasts posted here for the rest of the year!

A long way to go of course, but I wonder if we'll be in with a shot at the wettest Welsh winter on record? 1994-5 is the winter to beat, with 684mm, so we need to average around 228mm a month. With 222mm recorded for December, January surely coming in higher than this (certainly in my area - may have been drier further N/E), and the models trending back to a zonal outlook for at least the start of February, we may be in with a shout. The wettest January in Wales is 1948 with 301.4mm, but only 2 others (1974 & 1928) have recorded more than 250mm, so we could be in for a top 3 finish? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries Not the records I would have wanted to see challenged at the start of winter though! Edit: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-weather-january-set-confirmed-6581798 suggests we may have the wettest January although quoted figures are not the Met Office Wales figures.

There is still a month left to finally receive some seasonal weather, but this 'winter' is turning into the winter equivalent of the 'summer' we had in 2012. The only difference being that at least we had some summer weather at the end of May 2012 before the meteorological summer began, yet we've still to see any wintry weather this side of March 2013. If we're not going to see some snow, it would be nice to finally have some dry weather. The most frustrating thing about the model output at the moment is that when backing away from a cold outlook, it seems that we're stuck looking at charts like late Dec / early Jan again! We didn't have any snowfall here in winter 2011-12, but at least we had some dry weather and frost. On a positive note, there's always a chance for a sudden unexpected snowfall at this time of the year, like 9th February 2007 which gave my location more snowfall in one day than any other day since in an otherwise unremarkable winter season (even though it only lasted 2 days): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6344685.stm

5.5C please, although I'd very much like to be wrong (as long as it's wrong on the high side)

I went to Sweden the week before Christmas and was hoping to see some snow... ended up with the same weather as back home - dull and cloudy 6C with occasional rain. Looks like I should have visited this week!

Thunder / lightning on and off between 1:30 and 4am, mostly fairly distant here but sounded like somewhere S or E of us was getting pummelled - perhaps that was your storm in Swansea!

4th thunder day here in the last 7 with rumbles heard at 5am, and between 5 and 6pm - most active period since at least November 2009, possibly longer. We tend to get more storms / thundery showers here near the SW Wales coast during the winter half-year, but not used to this many in one week!

290mm here in December - more than any month in the deluges of 2012. Certainly made up for the relative dryness of the first half of 2013.

1 flash and 3 rumbles here between 5:15 and 6pm. Second thunder day in a week! Quite distant though.

Heard that from here in Cross Hands area, although it sounded like it was further north - had three rumbles and saw a flash between 5:15 and 6pm. Let's hope the new year brings something a little more seasonal!

4.2C please

Wife reported thunder & lightning over our house at 5:30am - slept right through it!

5.3C for me please