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Everything posted by winterof79
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The PV is forecast to move position if i have read the quoted charts correctly. Most seasoned posters are quite aware of the pv and its current position. MET "There remains a small but increasing probability of much colder weather developing as we move further into March." Not possibility!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think that has any bearing on the affects of an SSW in the Trop.Wether it has been settled or not. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS sign posted a colder shot around 24th back on the 10th onward. I ,personally,prefer to look at trends every 12z rather than dissect the four runs per day it throws out. The NWP will be getting to grips of the warming very soon and i expect a cold blocked Match to evolve. I also feel this will hold until a rapid change to warmer weather ensues as the cold drained from the polar region runs out, but MLB will remain.Just my feelings of course. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes and it's getting rather tedious with the GFS bashing from some.Did GFS forecast the Warming correctly i wonder. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Never was going to at 168z Just folk misunderstanding output and linking it to an SSW happening now.The cold snap next week has been sign posted for a while and nothing to do with QTR. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sorry didn't understand your post haven't seen anyone stating GFS has to be correct just others telling us to ignore it. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Here here sir. Posters looking to get their backs slapped for backing a favourite again.A half way house makes all models just as wrong as each other.Its become mass GFS hysteria this winter -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
winterof79 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But a half way house would mean only a cursory glance for ALL the models then if we use your analogy? Easy to dis the GFS but would love it to be just nearly correct and see some posters reactions -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
winterof79 replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Heaven knows whats happened to the Mod thread. One liners Galore nowadays.Drama queens all over. Its like a manic depressive thread Even Nick Sussex dragged into looking at worst case scenario every post. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Blue is referring to his previous post and its quite funny A few on here may get a surprise as the NWP gets to grips with what is/hasbeen an extended warming period in the strat. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
2009 Had quite a few polar NW incursions with thunder snow,mostly on Sundays for some bizarre reason. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting UKMO pressure from the pacific and atlantic -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thank god someone's commenting on the reliable and not telling us that Feb is a write off.Charts showing more mobility but far from mild. I have no issues with this chart for example. I do have issues with posters misreading charts and derailing the thread, this year moreso than any others hence my lack of posting. Let the run end and try to make a level headed judgment and not try to score points for forecasting Cheers -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's one mahooosive slider and is the usual shannon it dishes out when dealing with major change up above