-uksnow-

short ens agan op is on the mild side, there is hope yet http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=252&ext=1&y=44&run=18&runpara=0

Quite amazing how the GFS still doesnt buy this, full extreme ECM ens support, 100% MOGREPS support, UKMO good and all minor models bar JMA all good, seems so unplausable eh? The next two runs will be the decider in my opinion, something has to give at such short time range. OldMetMan - If you're out there, pop in!? Jet profile at T90 as mentioned by Snowking i was extremely suprised to not see the lows dive down the jet its well... crazy. On another note, i got threatened with legal action from Piers Corbyn today

Fantastic UKMO @ 144 Eat that GFS.

A good leap in the right direction for the GFS, makes for huge differences and shows just how early FI really is. I would expect a watered down ECM tonight with a further backtrack from the GFS on the 18z.. tentative signs eh.

T90ish is crucial

..3.30

It has absolutely nothing to do with the development of the shortwave as far as im aware.

Regarding the ensembles, i am by no means straw clutching, im extremely happy with todays runs but i do find it strange that the op runs keep finding these corkers without much long term support from the ens GFSwise, as we know the ECM ens were very good with it sitting fairly middle pack - but - im sure i've read somewhere that not 'often' but the ens can sometimes be the last thing to come on board with cold spells, i unfortunately cant provide a link for this and im fully prepared for a backtrack or non event but what are you guys opinions on the idea of the ens coming onboard later? -eded-

control isn't buying the op, can't post chart as on phone

Viewed all ens out to 192, and i counted a mere 4 runs that dont bring cold to the UK or are about too, it is fairly late so give or take 1 but this is GOOD. The cold comes in many forms, raging easterly, GL blocks, MAH's, so much options, so few mild ensembles... a very GOOD night all

Hi guys I got a Fine Offset WH2080 for Christmas and was very happy with it, loved the USB feature being able to update my twitter and use Cumulus, all was going swimingly until new years when the Anemometer packed in. A few questions 1) Is the reliability of this model good or are there common problems? Reviews seem fine on the internet and 2) I have a budget of around £200, however if it was a really good one i could squeeze further than that, im really looking for one with USB connectivity however this is not crucial, i notice the Davis Vue is very good but without the pc interface at base cost. If anyone could help me i'd be very greatful, would love to have a station set up for the potential of mid january onwards Thanks in advance Ed

Nice to see the control backing the op @ 144 Less is made of the AH aswell, this is a good thing, i think?

Ahaha do you have any idea who fergieweather is?! I like this run so far.. Scandi high alot stronger already, what is it with those persistant low heights south of greenland!?

FI is definitely more 96hrs ish!

Better 96hrs than the 00z 12z Of note: - Heights not as low on southern greenland tip -Deeper low west of Ireland -Less surfaced based heights around scandi from 1020-1025mb -More amplified atlantic flow Not counting my chickens yet, but...

Lets stick at the most between 0-120hrs guys, extended end aren't a great worry in what they are showing mild wise, this weekend isn't quite nailed on so no point worrying about the 240hrs+ with regards to what the chaos theory would present in these charts! ah Mac_SE beat me too it!

Definately chances for me upgrades and downgrades as we move on, but good modelling of at least some cold this weekend onwards... Control run doesnt get there however looking at ptb three @ 144 shows the type of things we could be hooking in to, there is NOTHING set in stone yet.

Just viewed the ens out to 180, there is a lot of members going for Mid atlantic ridge, easterly, retrogresson of ridge all by next Monday and even a few runs having a deepening low dropping down the North Sea. going to bed now so wont be viewing the full set but i think there is alot of support for the cold tonight on the GFS, part of me wonders if this weekend was its "Wobble" and it may get back on track, but calm down Ed you're nearly ramping now.

Hows this for an elongated high Steve? Much nicer seeing you happy with the run ahah.

It is interesting, is this Chinese model a brand model in its entirety or only new in that meteociel has now started posting it? Wonder what the verification stats are like on it, anyone?

To cheer a few of you up tonight, this from 'TomC' on the TWO forums, he has access to MOGREPS and just posted this.. " Cold spell in place at T+252 12Z base MOGREPS 21/23 members ECM 46/50 members mostly they are northerly some an arctic riidge." And lets remember, as quoted by GP and several others that anything before mid month was likely to just be a 'bonus'. By no means am i guarenteeing cold as i dont think anyone can, but mid month onwards sure seems alot more likely than the easterly this weekend that was picking up and dropped!

And I'd say your mad too much energy into Greenland for the second shot at a northerly at 240 to materialise aswell, but you can't call a westwards shift with no evidence! IMO, I'm not overly phased by today's runs, it was always going to be a highly uncertain time and whilst no models have a great handle on what's coming its best to keep your toys in the pram and listen to the wise words of Exeter and Ian F until we have more certainty, otherwise half of you on here will have had a heart attack by the time cold weather actually arrives..

Chris Fawkes hasn't said anything In particularly but said 'couldn't resist putting this in, some of the computer models saying high pressure to our north east bringing in a colder feed which would cause temperatures to drop well below normal' or something along those lines I couldn't type fast enough on my phone as he was saying it!

Unfortunately it isn't half that simple, anything at the moment post say 120 hours is very unlikely to verify as currently shown by the GFS so at the moment no that wouldn't be a correct statement, look for more consistency in the future runs and hopefully falling in line with ECM or a midway point, and most importantly as a newbie if you don't understand something just read fergies posts or ask a question. Edit: and don't take one run as a gospel!

@Snowking - Good to see the op run a fairly big low pressure outlier, something tells me the GFS has far from got this nailed yet.