-uksnow-

Presume you mean backtrack away from its wobble rather than away from the cold and towards the 'milder' side of the runs?

They are coming out as we speak http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&mode=0&carte=1 Control also brings snow to us next weekend with -10 uppers enroaching much of the UK @ 168

Control goes the same way with snow next weekend..

Long term it isnt, though potential for some WAA coming in from the Atlantic low and low exiting america coming up. Personally dont like this run.

Its difficult to call on this run at the moment, high is sinking a bit without the WAA but perhaps some help could come from the low out in the atlantic.. Agree with Ian.. wheres this going.

How does this float your boat? Agreed with above, ENS are the way forward at the moment in my opinion, still lots of divergence though.

Surely with a strat profile predicted as it is coming up.. A run like this just isnt that likely? I mean just look at the pv... I think you mean *Sunday. lol.

Ahhh now thats more like it 00z 12z

Encouraging particularly between te 11th-16th there is a good cluster or cold runs.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Interesting take on things, i'd love to hear OldMetMans view on this!

It has been noted by some that perhaps until the SSW has occurred in a couple of days time the outputs will have a far worse grasp on what's coming, therefore I think you could well be right about a sudden change.

I'll take a ptb 2 with a side order of 11 please

Anyone want to expand on exactly what john hammond mentioned?!

A good run so far.... Low has virtually stalled in the Atlantic just pumping in the air supporting the ridge

http://web.kma.go.kr...1.10.21&x=5&y=9 And a link for KMA charts, were on the left been tilted on our side.

Done some searching, not sure if this is of any help but hey ho! Courtesy of Americanwx forum: "The model output from the Korean Met Agency is actually a version of the Unified Model (which is the proper name of the UKMET model) that they started running in 2007. They started using a 4DVAR assimilation scheme (like the ECMWF) earlier this year, and they're planning a resolution increase from the current 40 km to 25 km. The red line on the graph is their 4DVAR-based upgrade...it'll be interesting to see more results from that, especially after the resolution upgrade." and i know this is outdated but if anyone can decipher it then go ahead as it was with the above quote

Not a bad profile at 192, wheres that AH going...? Edit: Steve beat me too it

Without slating Brian, its got to be said he is a fairly sit on the fence type forecaster who also doesnt pay alot of attention to strat happenings. Often his forecasts often more accurate but this imo is because he is often last to make a call on something giving a higher chance of it being right. So one to add to the mix, but i would trust fergie and the MO far more than him..

7 sub -10 runs, an increase on yesterdays 18z's 5 (I think) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Also a much stronger secondary warming on the 06z!

For anyone who hasn't seen... Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 GFS ENS days 11 to 15 height anoms is impressive with major signal for high pressure to the N of the UK - http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif … Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 00Z EC ENS are very interesting beyond 264hrs with 20 members now signalling a major -ve AO pattern with S'ly tracking lows & cold weather. 00Z GFS ENS mean for 2m temps continues to clearly show a marked progression towards colder conditions by mid-month. pic.twitter.com/D6WllN5l then posted weatherbell AO and NAO charts however you'll have to go to his profile to see this as i cant link them across

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=299&ext=1&y=124&run=18&runpara=0 Large majority go sub 0 from 12th onwards, also i count around 5 sub -10 runs? All very good building blocks if you ask me. Which many of you dont... ahah.

Chin up everyone, we'll get there eventually...

Oh lordy there are a fair few extreme pertubations showing up, this can only be a good thing?