UKSupercell

1. At present it looks like you're right. But I'll hold you to it! 2. Some of the snow charts from the last few days seem to suggest there may be snow round here, but we'll find out soon. 3. I'm not so sure, but you're probably right. Cold and cloudy this week then I guess. Just like late Dec early Jan. Yawn!

Surely, over the next 5 days, we will see at least a small covering of snow....And if we miss out on the streamers (I mean we're not *that* far west so anything lined up and potent, we're in with a shot) we may see some frontal snow Thurs into Fri perhaps? It's still all to play for, but I'm probably looking at this more positively, but less realistically, than you are. We'll have to wait and see!

Admittedly, I think you may be right. Indeed there was snizzle blowing about in the wind at various periods in the early afternoon, but we also had sunshine! It's a letdown given the MO's forecast was generally light snow all day today (with some heavy spells potentially last night or this evening) but that has chopped and changed so many times within the last 2-3 days. Although it was consistent in it's persistent light snow forecast, which of course has not materalised.....at least yet.

This band of snow which is edging more SW now and will probably pivot further westwards....the problem is it's now losing intensity and fragmenting, and surely will only lose further intensity as this day/night goes on? Unless streamers kick in, but again, East Hants isn't exactly prime position right now.

Long enough time till then. Let's not get ahead of ourselves!

Tbh, if you cycle back half hour or an hour even, it looks to me that the band of snow is already moving in less of a SSW direction and more SW perhaps even WSW soon. Some definite adjustments on NW extra's radar lite, as if you add in the wind direction layer, this confirms what I've said above. There has already been a definite shift, I'm certain of it. So fingers crossed!!!

When can we expect this band of snow to pivot more SW, WSW or W even (if this is a reality as some posts have suggested?) When at the moment it still appears to be moving, SSW I think.

Good afternoon from East Hants. Fell asleep very late last night watching this forum and looking at models/radars! So only been up for a couple hours. Some patchy snizzle here in East Hants, blowing about in the wind, but nothing more. While this event may seem underwhelming at present and perhaps a "bust" for some, others in the SE have got a good covering (up to 10cm browsing this forum with 20cm drifts) and the fun is only just beginning. So don't write things off too soon, I'm sure there's more to come. Faith, patience and perspective people!

Pink just exploded on the radar in Kent.....

Come on lads keep the faith! We've gotta try and stay positive.....I had a good feeling about this week just a couple days ago. I think we will be unlucky to not see at least one slight covering of snow. Whether it's tomorrow, Monday, Tues or later in the week....I'm sure snow will fall....and settle. Haslemere and the South Downs hills always seem to get snow when Bordon/Liss/Petersfield are more marginal, so I'm sure parts of our neck of the woods will see something, although it'll be cold enough anyway for lower levels to get snow. Regardless, we ain't Cornwall, and this cold spell is only just beginning, so don't write it off just yet!!!!

No surprise the metoffice have downgraded the forecast for my part of East Hants from rain during Sat evening till midnight or so then turning to "heavy snow" for a few hours then light snow virtually from 4am and all day tomorrow. Now literally no snow forecast for next 24 hours for here. Typical! Though the NW radar showing rain/snow literally on my doorstep just to S in Petersfield and South Downs a short while ago and the rain seemed sleety when I checked 30 mins ago. Just have to see how this pans out!

Great post Matt, really enjoyed reading that. I read this on lunch at work earlier and just had to respond! Your tales of being a kid and taking a huge interest in the weather, particularly the part about watching the forecasts religiously, really struck a chord in me. I've got to be honest I didn't quite go to the lengths you did with atlas annotations and ringing up all the forecasters (that's brilliant!) but I did become known as the "weatherman" in year 10..... Appreciate this is not model-related and I'll try to keep this short as pos, mods! But it all started when I was about 13/14.... Used to visit grandparents every boxing day, when they lived in a small village just outside Cambridge. I can remember one year, literally praying for snow. It got really cold before Christmas and I think that year perhaps we visited on Xmas eve. Driving back south it was clear and starry with a hard frost. Instinctively I didn't think it would snow but I had so much hope. I think there were easterlies and light snow showers drifted in to affect Scotland and the NE. We didn't get snow that time (in the Chilterns) but I became almost obsessive watching the BBC interactive forecasts thereafter....John Hammond, Peter Gibbs, Alex Deakin, Helen Willets, Darren Bett, Phil Avery....etc! From then on started buying weather books, always loved thunderstorms, and used to compare online forecasts in school etc. Anyway, don't want to waffle on, but always enjoy reading posts like this. I did once meet John Hammond on the train to London Marylebone, nice guy! Maybe we should have a thread about what got people interested in weather, sure there's more great stories. Fingers crossed for all you in Kent and elsewhere in SE/SW esp that ain't seen much. Got a good feeling about this impending cold, good luck all!

Thanks! Been two snowfalls in 8 days now in parts of the South East. Any photos I've uploaded here have been with my old Iphone SE. If this cold spell from next weekend onwards transpires into a BFTE situation, I'll have to get the old canon DSLR out methinks!

Some more photos from up at Black Down. Must have been about 2cm up there, but a light covering enough for snowmen. Drove to another hill nearer Petersfield just as it was getting dark. 240m ASL there and about 2cm there too. A nice surprise today was!

Amazing how much difference an extra 200m makes! Black Down Hill, nr Haslemere!

Snow been coming down now for about 20 minutes or so. Going out to the hills.

Big flakes now falling light-moderately amongst rain. Cannot see this settling though unless it packs a real punch.

Oh, snow now falling amongst the rain here. If things get a little heavier/snowier, I'll drive off to see what they're like 240m up.

How high up are you in Liphook? I'm over Liss way just N of Petersfield only 70m ASL and it's been sleety rain for probably going on an hour now, slightly heavier over the last half hour but not what I'd actually define as "heavy." Wonder what it's like over Black Down Hill, Haslemere, 270m up. Also, there's a beautiful woodland out in the sticks 10 mins west of me, and the views from the top are amazing. 240m ASL there, wonder if it's snowing. Tempted to possibly drive over there in a while.

Evening all, just been browsing the odd page here and there from about 12 hours ago till now, to see what totals people recorded on this fine day! Must say, it was the first snowfall I have seen in two years, since Feb 2019 I believe, as winter 2020 was just rain rain rain..... Anyway, started the day off in S Bucks as had been staying with parents for a few days and working in the area. S Bucks got about 7cm. Drove up to Ivinghoe Beacon on top of the Chilterns, about 230m up. Roughly 8cm on average though I don't know if you call these drifts, but there were pockets where the snow was deeper and I measured 15cm at one point. Late afternoon into early evening, on the drive back to mine in East Hants, I drove up to Black Down hill about 270m asl near Haslemere, Surrey. Unfortunately by the time I got up there it was almost pitch black and I was increasingly paranoid about the state of the roads every minute that passes. I have a jeep with all-terrain snow-rated tyres and it was fantastic today but going down snowy slushy icy hills in the dark with only your headlights is still a bit of a risk. But from what I saw slightly earlier, I think Haslemere and the surrounding high spots in the Surrey S Downs got more snow than S Bucks. They must have had 4 + inches this morning. Fingers crossed we get some proper stuff into Feb! (Six inches plus.....I remember 17/18 winter and measuring 1-2 ft drifts on Ivinghoe Beacon! Attached is several photos incl Ivinghoe Beacon, parents back garden and the moon between trees tonight during a forest night walk.

What do we reckon about the South Downs snow chance tonight/this morning? I've seen that the North Downs looking at various forecasts and snow warnings seems to be a better spot, but I live on the edge of the South Downs at only 70m ASL but down the road there's a beautiful steep woodland where it's 240m ASL on the hill. Slightly further away about 20 mins drive to near Haslemere, Surrey, there's a spot at 270m ASL where I went walking last Sunday and the trees were beautiful....winter wonderland without snow, all rime ice/hoarfrost. So does anyone think South Downs has a chance of accumulations on the hills?

So you're the resident comedian here eh? Cheers guys

Where is everyone getting these charts....link?

Evening all, and a Happy New Year to you! I have been lurking on this thread (and the previous version) for the last couple days or so, viewing the different model outcomes and peoples' analyses and predictions with great interest (albeit limited knowledge!) I usually only visit netweather forum during the summer for storm events but also sometimes in the winter with the pending threats of snowfall. Question: Where are people getting all these models from, what websites? Very curious and interested to learn more. I understand pressure charts, fronts, convection etc to some extent, but knowledge is nonetheless limited! Cheers

So, took a while editing this and cutting down over 7 minutes of footage into 3 mins. Yesterday's relentless rainfall and great lightning in south Bucks/Berks. WARNING: Foul Language Uncensored. Luckily - the very last lightning flash I filmed last night while driving was unbelievably the only flash I have got a freeze-frame bolt out of. None of the others dozens of flashes slowed down showed one!