johnholmes

Dry with patchy cloud, a low of 5.1 C

Dry with a fair amount of cloud and a current low of 7.3 C; rainfall 4.0 mm since midnight

Overcast and still raining on and off, T=8.4 C !, Max currently=8.8 C the coldest day since late March-yuk

very different to EGLL observations!

Dry and rather cloudy, current low is 4.6 C

Dry with patchy cloud, current low is 8.3 C

yes this from 8000 ft up by th start gate for the Lauberhorn downhillLight snowfall above about 6000 FT around Wengen and Grindelwald Slope data | jungfrau.ch WWW.JUNGFRAU.CH

Cloudy, dry now after overnight rain; 8.6 mm since midnight; the low was 7.7 C

Cloudy, dry at he moment after rain over night, a low of 9.1 C with 4.0 mm since midnight

Very odd; yesterday my Davis r/gauge started working again and still is. Not done anything to it but checking with the radar the amounts seem about right? Unable to go up the step ladder due to balance issues (old age) so did not do anything other than very gingerly check nil water in the gauge after it stopped in the middle of the downpour last week.

Cloudy with slight rain and a low of 8.1 C

Cloudy after overnight rain and more on the way by the look of it; a low of 6.8 C

Dry with patchy cloudy after an orange sunrise; a low of 9.1 C

5 days later and what is showing=Saturday 28 October on NOAA and ECMWF outputs NOAA 6-10 (2-6 Nov) and cold contour heights over the UK, certainly bye early November standards, the whole country is covered by the 5280 DM line with a 5220 DM centre over western Scotland. There is a very large –ve height centred over the UK, at least -300 DM with what looks like an actual max of – 360 DM over the UK!. No actual contour flow over the UK with a strong westerly over western Europe below the extended main trough W-E from NE Canada beneath the Greenland ridge and into the UK trough. An actual contour ridge over eastern Greenland with +ve heights from NE Norway across the Greenland with a +ve max of +150dm west to northern Alaska. I honestly cannot remember seeing this kind of set up in early November, either predicted or actual So to the ECMWF for a similar period (3-7 Nov). It shows a fairly deep upper centre centred over the UK with the trough down into Iberia. Over the period the trough ends up la bit less marked and slightly east of the UK. Its attendant surface feature over the Scottish Borders given as 967 MB, slowly fills, meandering around to be double centred off southern Sweden and west to the sea just off western Norway. At the same time the 850 MB temperature remains below 5C and falls over the period as the zero C line ends to be shown from N Wales to N Yorkshire. To me this suggests temperatures will be below normal, possibly even rather cold for areas away from the far south. Also changeable/unsettled, rain or showers at times, windy at first. Snow would be fall, if these charts are correct to lowish levels over Scotland, possibly even parts of far northern England by the period end and for hills as far as the Peak District and N Wales, maybe even hill tops further south. Of course these charts may well get moderated as we get nearer to the dates given above! Just had a look at the latest UK Met output 1-3 November and both the 500 and the surface are not that different from ECMWF, so we have models on pretty much the same page. It has happened that all 3 have been too dramatic but not often. I suspect Met O warnings of yellow/amber will be issued early next week. Anyway time will tell, this time next week we will know the answer! Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV This is the Met O Fax outputs for T+144, not sure what will download, but scroll to the T+144 if it starts with the actual surface chart UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4943375

5 days later and what is showing=Saturday 28 October on NOAA and ECMWF outputs NOAA 6-10 (2-6 Nov) and cold contour heights over the UK, certainly bye early November standards, the whole country is covered by the 5280 DM line with a 5220 DM centre over western Scotland. There is a very large –ve height centred over the UK, at least -300 DM with what looks like an actual max of – 360 DM over the UK!. No actual contour flow over the UK with a strong westerly over western Europe below the extended main trough W-E from NE Canada beneath the Greenland ridge and into the UK trough. An actual contour ridge over eastern Greenland with +ve heights from NE Norway across the Greenland with a +ve max of +150dm west to northern Alaska. I honestly cannot remember seeing this kind of set up in early November, either predicted or actual So to the ECMWF for a similar period (3-7 Nov). It shows a fairly deep upper centre centred over the UK with the trough down into Iberia. Over the period the trough ends up la bit less marked and slightly east of the UK. Its attendant surface feature over the Scottish Borders given as 967 MB, slowly fills, meandering around to be double centred off southern Sweden and west to the sea just off western Norway. At the same time the 850 MB temperature remains below 5C and falls over the period as the zero C line ends to be shown from N Wales to N Yorkshire. To me this suggests temperatures will be below normal, possibly even rather cold for areas away from the far south. Also changeable/unsettled, rain or showers at times, windy at first. Snow would be fall, if these charts are correct to lowish levels over Scotland, possibly even parts of far northern England by the period end and for hills as far as the Peak District and N Wales, maybe even hill tops further south. Of course these charts may well get moderated as we get nearer to the dates given above! Just had a look at the latest UK Met output 1-3 November and both the 500 and the surface are not that different from ECMWF, so we have models on pretty much the same page. It has happened that all 3 have been too dramatic but not often. I suspect Met O warnings of yellow/amber will be issued early next week. Anyway time will tell, this time next week we will know the answer! Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV This is the Met O Fax outputs for T+144, not sure what will download, but scroll to the T+144 if it starts with the actual surface chart UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

The ECMWF output suggests around 965 MB centred over the Scottish border area, I'll show this when I get time to put together NOAA and ECMWF latest outputs.

Foggy with a current low of 7.1 C

Damp with hick fog; current low is 6.6 C

Cloudy with rain at times and a low of 6.9 C

Dry with clear skies; fog seems quite widespread E/S/N of here! Lowest temperature is 4.8 C so far

A cloudy start with rain at times; a low of 8.6 C

Dense fog at dawn, formed about 3am, thinned to about 300M by 8am and is probably about 6-700 M now, still sky obscured; temperature low of 6.1 C

Dry with patchy cloud, isol showers showing on radar, currently missing here; a low of 5.3 C

Had about half an hour of moderate rain, see radar, once it stops I'll get the steps and have a look in the rain gauge, not sure if I will be able to sort it, just hoping its got something stopping the water draining out

Cloudy with ocnl slight rain, still not got rainfall ; a low of 8.7 C currently