johnholmes

Thursday 28 December 2023 Just over a week since I did an update on the anomaly charts. Nothing much changed for a few days but over the last 3 NOAA has changed now showing a fairly marked 500 mb ridge with a small +ve height anomaly . The anomaly first showed sw of the UK and has moved wnw over the past 72 hours. It has also created a very slight trough east of the UK. On the 8-14 chart the height anomaly is now shown at 150DM, a reasonable value with the contour ridging directed towards Iceland and Greenland. West of this is the usual trough over ne Canada with a ridge west of this north of Alaska. Not a classic set up for the UK/European areas but better than no signal for any meridional flow in this area. Turning to the ECMWF for a similar time scale to the 6-10 NOAA. It keeps the 500 flow in a general WNW flow with minor ripples running through it. Over Europe it does show a fairly flattish trough in day 1-2 but sharpens it somewhat by day 5 (7 Jan). The 850 MB temperature shows little sign of any colder air for the UK with the far north almost in the -5 C at times with most of the rest of the UK in the zero to -2 to -3C region. So a watching game to see if it will follow the NOAA and, indeed, if the NOAA charts intensify the ridge-trough set up for the UK and Europe region. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Slight rain at the moment after a windy night with a max of 51 mph, (never seen this high a gust in my sheltered back garden);; a low of 7.8 C; rainfall 0.8 mm since midnight

Well the NOAA 500 MB anomaly charts have now shown a similar pattern for the last two outputs, that is a 500 MB ridge building to the W/NW of the UK. Will do a run down tomorrow morning Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4985537

Well the NOAA 500 MB anomaly charts have now shown a similar pattern for the last two outputs, that is a 500 MB ridge building to the W/NW of the UK. Will do a run down tomorrow morning

Wet and breezy here with 13.4 mm since midnight

ditto here-13.4 mm since midnight

Dry and mostly sunny and a low of 4.9 C the lowest for 10 days, still 2 C above average. Lovely to see the sun.

Initially NIL model data; that began to arrive from, I think the early 1970's. I do remember in the mid 70's at Manchester Weather Centre, think it might have been 1975 Xmas. We were asked to predict temperatures to January 1st from 23 December!! Ha-ha. Anyway we managed to get hold of the medium range forecaster doing 3-5 days ahead with computer input and he suggested 'cold' most of the time, frosts most nights. It was pretty accurate. Done by a correct prediction of a jet streak west of Greenland apparently. How times change. By the time I retired in 1995 forecasts to 5-7 days were more or less routine. Interestingly when GP was using data some years ago Met UK refused to accept it. Now many of those ideas are routine for outlooks 10-30 days ahead. Happy Christmas all, off to start cooking my Christmas dinner

Happy Christmas to you all But the ECMWF shows little indication of any cold setting in this morning for the start of 2024?

Mild and wet with 2.2 mm since midnight, mild with the current low of 9.1 C Happy Christmas to everyone

Cloudy and dry after maybe a few spots earlier, just enough to damp the ground but nil in the Davis, very mild with a low of 11.4 C; ridiculous really as it is some 8C above normal overnight lows for December

Dry so far and breezy, gust to 27 mph overnight, current low is 10.9 C very mild again

PLEASE use larger print - thanks

Dry and cloudy it seems, bit breezy with a low of 8.3 C, less mild than yesterday

Dry, mostly cloudy, windy with max gust 39 mph, very rare for my garden, very mild with the low showing 11.5 C; almost 9C above normal!

Wednesday 20 December update with NOAA and ECMWF Not very good advice on the last two outputs I showed, both suggested to me, below average surface temperatures for Peak District north, with brief milder interludes. Consistently here day max values in the past 4 days have been in double figures. The latest NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 keep a general westerly flow for the UK and into Europe, no sign of any Atlantic ridging nor trough over Europe. Any somewhat colder air seems most likely over and north of the Border. ECMWF shows a 500 flow (from 26 th out to 30 th) from ne Canada with a trough then lying Iceland to mid Atlantic tending to back to W-WNW by the 30th with a minor trough just east of the UK. The 850 temps show just below zero C for all but the far sw of England at times. So any ppn being rain or rain showers apart from hilly areas of Scotland especially north of the Forth-Clyde valley. At least the wind strengths look like being lower than the next 48 hours. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Dry with variable amounts of cloud, mostly CuSc, mild again with a low of 8.1 C, currently up to 9.3 C, the radar shows ppn upwind of us, perhaps some light rain in about 1 hour?

Well the clearance came in, eventually, and unusual to see such a very straight back edge to the cloud

Happy memories Ian, nuts to work with but a grand bloke; and yes I remember 1987 well!

Cloudy, a little rain again, now up to 1.2 mm since midnight, a low of 8.9 C just now

Cloudy and dry, pretty mild with a low of 11.0 C 4 C above normal!

Dry, very mild with a low of 8.8C about 1.5 C above the expected max in December, along with variable cloud; little breeze until just after dawn when a gust to 23 mph.

My favourite spot, if only I was 10 years younger, lovely day there Slope data | jungfrau.ch WWW.JUNGFRAU.CH

Lovely day here, blue sky hardly any breeze T=12C and Td=9C

re the poster asking about Wengen This is the link to give the local forecast, slope information etc Slope data | jungfrau.ch WWW.JUNGFRAU.CH I skied there for about 32 years from 1988 staying at the Alpenrose. Wonderful area but don't expect massive snowfalls but enough most years to ski from the top of the Lauberhorn into the village, even try the Lauberhorn race track. Not sure if it is open prior to the race in early January. The scenery is really stunning, skiing also at the other two villages, Murren and Grindelwald, Murren is a steeper resort for runs. Enjoy if you go; going to get mushy this next week. But most models are suggesting a burst of cold air again into Europe in the lead up to Xmas. If you would like to chat then drop me a line, happy to talk snow and Wengen!