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Daily weather observations - February 26th to March 3rd
johnholmes replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Cloudy, dry after 0.4 mm of rain overnight; milder than for a about 9 nights with the current low on 8.7 C -
Daily weather observations - February 26th to March 3rd
johnholmes replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dry and mostly cloudy; current low is 3.7 C -
Daily weather observations - February 26th to March 3rd
johnholmes replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dry; lovely orange sunrise through high cloud, white ground frost with a low of 0.1 C, now on 1.3 C -
Daily weather observations - February 26th to March 3rd
johnholmes replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dry with variable cloud; Davis shows 0.2 mm at 0200, (need check radar for that), patchy white ground frost with a low of 2.3 C, on 5.2 C now yep could be true, a line of showers moving in from the coast -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
johnholmes replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As you can see from the ECMWF, a 'cold' plunge is predicted on its latest, indeed its last couple of outputs, but no deep cold. It shows below zero C for the 850 mb temperature for the whole country but the -5 C only briefly clips the far north. With an upper low over the UK one would imagine that it could be quite showery so, perhaps, at last the Scottish ski resorts may do well? -
Well a long time since I created a post using the usual models ( 2 Feb the last times) In brief for approximately 23-27 February all 3 are on the same page. They show a marked upper trough over the UK edging slowly east and warming out slightly. On the surface ECMWF shows a deep low just south of Iceland on day 1 (27Feb), NOAA shows a marked 500 mb trough over the UK from a flabby sort of main trough NE Canada/NW Greenland by 26 February. UK Met 20-22 February shows a similar pattern with a marked upper trough and surface feature over the UK. NOAA has contours on its 6-10 over the UK from about 520-534 DM north to south over the UK. So cold by the average expected for late February. ECMWF shows a quite strong northerly pulling in the cold air, surface and at 500 mb. UK Met by its last date (22nd) shows a strong NNW’ly over the near Atlantic with a rather flabby low over the Northern Isles and a high west of the NNW’ly flow. Further ahead ECMWF indicates an upper ridge moving east into the SW along with a surface high a bit west of 20W at the same latitude as northern Spain. NOAA with its 8-14 day chart has a +ve height anomaly of 150 DM or so in about the same place as the ECMWF surface high. These charts would suggest that by the 27-28 February the cold air supply is being cut off. Probably by next Saturday ‘deepish’ cold air will be covering most parts, say -4 to -5 C at 850mb. I would think these conditions lasting until about month end? Just my take on the outlook! I'll try and post the charts I used to arrive at this Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5038707
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
johnholmes replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well a long time since I created a post using the usual models ( 2 Feb the last times) In brief for approximately 23-27 February all 3 are on the same page. They show a marked upper trough over the UK edging slowly east and warming out slightly. On the surface ECMWF shows a deep low just south of Iceland on day 1 (27Feb), NOAA shows a marked 500 mb trough over the UK from a flabby sort of main trough NE Canada/NW Greenland by 26 February. UK Met 20-22 February shows a similar pattern with a marked upper trough and surface feature over the UK. NOAA has contours on its 6-10 over the UK from about 520-534 DM north to south over the UK. So cold by the average expected for late February. ECMWF shows a quite strong northerly pulling in the cold air, surface and at 500 mb. UK Met by its last date (22nd) shows a strong NNW’ly over the near Atlantic with a rather flabby low over the Northern Isles and a high west of the NNW’ly flow. Further ahead ECMWF indicates an upper ridge moving east into the SW along with a surface high a bit west of 20W at the same latitude as northern Spain. NOAA with its 8-14 day chart has a +ve height anomaly of 150 DM or so in about the same place as the ECMWF surface high. These charts would suggest that by the 27-28 February the cold air supply is being cut off. Probably by next Saturday ‘deepish’ cold air will be covering most parts, say -4 to -5 C at 850mb. I would think these conditions lasting until about month end? Just my take on the outlook! I'll try and post the charts I used to arrive at this Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
johnholmes replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Daniel* Not sure how you get that? Can you explain your comment please? thank you -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
johnholmes replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Met4Cast What on earth is a QTR please? -
Bit more info for Matty. The web site will not allow copies but the 1220 on roads spoke of the A6 being closed at Toply Pike, Taddington, this is on the long pull up from Bakewell, other roads are said to be badly affected in the area. Not your concern but A53, A 54, A 537 are closed, they are roads out of and west of Buxton. Good luck