johnholmes

A cloudy dry and rather cold start; a low of 3.5 C, Ocnl slight rain since

Dry with variable cloud, lowest is 10.8 C, hoping to change battery today but data seems ok again, gust to 29 overnight and 35 late yesterday

A gust to 37 mph here, close on Sunday and the temperature is 14.7 C

Would you be kind enough to put your nearest town in your posts, that helps us all understand the local weather in your area thanks

I am pretty sure that meteorologists and climatologists will probably already be preparing learned texts explaining why certain meteorological parameters are now different to what we remember, in my case, 60+ years ago. Just whether they will be proved correct is something that will be evident in a decade or several decades time. I'll watch with interest from my 'perch' up above!

Cloudy and dry at dawn but ocnl light rain now, the low was 4.9 C. No reports now until I get round to changing the battery in the gear outside.

Very well said C, as an ex senior forecaster for the often maligned Met Office much of what you discuss was barely seen in my days, an occasional very complex item in the more learned scientific magazines certainly nothing in practical meteorology. The science of meteorology has come a long way since then but some of you on here, yourself included, absolutely amaze me with your depth of knowledge. Keep going at it you will never, in my view, get a total answer but you will become more accurate as will the professionals. Thanks for all the hard work you and others on here do, way above me much of the time but well done.

Dry with variable cloud and breezy, worst of the wind was last evening gusts to 45 mph, now down to 27 mph gusts. No rain since the early hours with 0.6 mm since midnight; current low is 8.4 C

Gusted to 45 mph here which is pretty unusual

Sunday starts dry with variable cloud, bit breezy already; a low of 3.9 C but up to 6.8 C now

Dry and I think mostly cloudy, min temperature=2.1 C now up to 3.4 C

Friday 19 January The return to milder air was well signed by NOAA from last Thur/Fri. NOAA 6-10 shows strong SW’ly into UK with some ridging over Scandinavia whilst the +ve height is shown off ne coast of Spain around 240DM. In the far west it shows a ridge-trough set up (will this affect the UK area with time?) 180 DM in the ridge, east of the trough a stron WNW flow to beneath the main trough in its usual area and thence into the UK etc The 8-14 keeps the ridge off W Alaska but ‘loses’ the trough with only the main trough, simllar to the 6-10 into the ridge east of the UK, so a very similar pattern in the UK area. Turning to ECMWF, which never went for as much ridging nor quite as low 850’s as other models suggested and it maintains a most south of west strongish flow through its 5 days (25-29 Jan) with, at the surface, a ridge being more dominant than any low feature. This ridge is moved from Spain to central Europe in the same period. *50 MB temperatures ebb and flo a little at first but overall a rise is show and by the 29 th the whole UK is show > than zero with England and Wales above 5 C UK Met for 23-25 Jan has a fairly stron broad westerly with minor ridges and troughs running through. This shows on the surface as two deep lows that track in a general easterly direction just north of Scotland. Overall the flow is a mix of Polar returning maritime air with brief intrusions of Tropical Maritime for more southern areas. Probably some snow on the cold side of passing lows for the Scottish mountains with temperatures fluctuating around normal for most areas. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5018881

Friday 19 January The return to milder air was well signed by NOAA from last Thur/Fri. NOAA 6-10 shows strong SW’ly into UK with some ridging over Scandinavia whilst the +ve height is shown off ne coast of Spain around 240DM. In the far west it shows a ridge-trough set up (will this affect the UK area with time?) 180 DM in the ridge, east of the trough a stron WNW flow to beneath the main trough in its usual area and thence into the UK etc The 8-14 keeps the ridge off W Alaska but ‘loses’ the trough with only the main trough, simllar to the 6-10 into the ridge east of the UK, so a very similar pattern in the UK area. Turning to ECMWF, which never went for as much ridging nor quite as low 850’s as other models suggested and it maintains a most south of west strongish flow through its 5 days (25-29 Jan) with, at the surface, a ridge being more dominant than any low feature. This ridge is moved from Spain to central Europe in the same period. *50 MB temperatures ebb and flo a little at first but overall a rise is show and by the 29 th the whole UK is show > than zero with England and Wales above 5 C UK Met for 23-25 Jan has a fairly stron broad westerly with minor ridges and troughs running through. This shows on the surface as two deep lows that track in a general easterly direction just north of Scotland. Overall the flow is a mix of Polar returning maritime air with brief intrusions of Tropical Maritime for more southern areas. Probably some snow on the cold side of passing lows for the Scottish mountains with temperatures fluctuating around normal for most areas. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Clear sky, dry and a low since midnight of -2.9 C so 5 air frosts on the trot

So did mine,at the time I had never seen a dog do that

I had snow today, out of a blue sky at least 2 dozen flakes! That after my coldest night since 11 Feb 2012 Quite overcome with it all! Loved the snow photos, especially the dog playing in the snow; I wonder why almost all dogs seem to enjoy snow

Very unusual occurrence waiting for a bus around 10 am this morning. Complete blue sky, not a cloud in sight, and a couple of dozen snowflakes floating down. Made me think back to the first couple years in the Met Office at RAF Worksop, that happened, rain not snow, in brisk westerlies as shower clouds cleared but the ppn appeared to fall from a blue sky

At dawn, clear sky other than shallow cu on eastern horizon, white frost with a low of -6.3 C, the lowest for at least 3 years, not yet had chance to check how far back. Found it=Feb 11 th 2012 with -8.4 C

Dry with patchy Ci and Contrails but 7/8 blue, coldest night this winter and back to 15 March 2023; -3.1 C

Not sure why anyone is saying it was not predicted, UK Met Fax has shown it for several days, forecasts also suggested it tracking east rather than its current south of east. The area predicted for snow has, as it often does , varied between central Scotland and north Midlands!

Dry and cloudy, frosty, low after midnight=-1.7 C but -2.2 C before

A cloudless and pretty cold day, Max 2.7 with a Td of -06C and breeze of 10+ mph=feels like -6/-7 C

Monday 15 Jan From last Thursday The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period. Little to add, the possible snow event for this area looks to have ‘gone’. That for the far south seems less likely. The less cold air on all 3 charts I use looks set to arrive by Saturday. At the moment not looking all that mild but no sign of any cold for a couple of weeks from Saturday for the UK. Have to say not sure what to make of the pattern in the very far west of the NOAA charts ! Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012819

Monday 15 Jan From last Thursday The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period. Little to add, the possible snow event for this area looks to have ‘gone’. That for the far south seems less likely. The less cold air on all 3 charts I use looks set to arrive by Saturday. At the moment not looking all that mild but no sign of any cold for a couple of weeks from Saturday for the UK. Have to say not sure what to make of the pattern in the very far west of the NOAA charts ! Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

A clear cold blue sky morning with an air frost giving a low of -1.3 C; this is the lowest since 6/12/23