evil monkey

Yeah, some nice looking convection about with heavy showers & squally winds- but I haven't heard any thunder!

I'm gambling on an Azores influence early in the month- 14.8ºC please

Light cloud this morning (Cu, Sc) with a light shower mid-morning. Cloud breaking readily around lunchtime then clear skies with lengthy sunny periods. Wind light SW. Current temp. 22.7ºC (Max today 24.6ºC). Pressure 1010.3 hPa falling.

press the "alt" key and 0186

Fine & dry- long sunny periods with a few small Cu. Wind moderate/fresh South, Current temp. 25.5ºC, Pressure 1015.8 hPa falling.

GFS does seem to be on it's own with this one ATM!

Yep, and the sixth consecutive day with no rainfall!

Thats an old model run Chris93,latest GFS has Bill heading for Nova Scotia.

Try this link

Looks like the jet-stream once again wants to spoil the party according to the GFS 12z run, with the jet left exit intensifying the low pressure system as it approaches us on Friday. The ensembles mostly have the pressure higher at that time so I think the timing of this interaction is going to be crucial.

Stratocumulus overcast this morning following light patchy rain over-night, cloud slowly clearing this afternoon to leave sunny periods with broken Cumulus. Wind light North West, Current temp 21.4ºC, Pressure 1021.3 hPa rising.

Fine & dry- periods of hazy sunshine with areas of mid & high level cloud (Ac, As, Ci). Wind light variable, Current temp. 26.5ºC, Pressure 1019.2 hPa steady.

Light overcast with occasional brighter spells, very warm & humid- Wind light South-East, Current Temp 27.5ºC (overnight low of 16.8ºC) Pressure 1019 hPa rising slowly.

Fine, dry & sunny- Cu slowly developing from late morning. Wind light South, Temp. 23.5ºC Pressure 1017.1 hPa steady.

I think there's alot of truth in what you say... Then again, isn't it part of the British national character to gripe about the weather?

A sunny start this morning after a little overnight rain, sunny periods continuing with some light Cu until mid-afternoon then cloud starting to build. Wind Light/Moderate South. Temp 24ºC Pressure 1008.2 hPa falling.

The southerly plume? Could get interesting for Central England- all the best for that!!

Well, what can I say? Thanks!

Rain now easing here, no further thunder- I can see the back edge away to my West. Not a bad little storm & I think that makes it 7 thunder days here this month!

Cumulus developing following a clear, sunny start. Still some good sunny periods. Current temp. 22.5 C Wind light W Pressure 1022.9 hPa rising. A fine July day!

I'm feeling optimistic- 17.7

Active thunderstorm to my South, frequent thunder heard- the Southern horizon is a blank blue/grey wall!

Clear, sunny start this morning; cloud steadily developing during the morning. Now areas of Cu & Sc with occasional sunny intervals. Wind light SW Current temp 22 c Pressure 1015.3 hPa rising.

OK, I'll have a bash... A negatively tilted upper trough interacting with a jet streak left exit formed a low pressure area near the Straights of Dover, this was in a prime position to entrain high theta-w (warm & moist) air from Northern France & force it aloft. At the same time severe thunderstorms were initiating along the French coast near Le Havre, these caught the flow across the Channel & ran into the highly favourable environment over SE England. This caused a series of thunderstorms to initiate in the unstable air around & to the South of the Low centre. That's how I see it anyway, apologies if I'm wrong!

I think the main activity is now transferring further South down the line of the trough- roughly towards London.