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Got caught up in the one and only storm for today whilst I was around Kettleshulme, I could see the anvil over Staffordshire whilst atop of Whaley Moor and was keeping a eye on it until it was almost overhead. It electrified just as it got in-to the hills past Leek and luckily I managed to find a old barn that was being converted into a garage (noone was around and the gate was locked) so not fancying my chances in the woodland around Kettleshulme I waited it out until things quietened down. No chance I was going up the open fields at Sponds Moor with fork lightning hitting around for 10 minutes.

The eruption can be seen from parts of the Reykjanesbraut at Vogar + Keflavik, although to see anything substantial you'd need a good pair of binocs and at least a 400mm lens on a Mirrorless/DSLR camera. There's a lot of variables but if the north access to the Blue Lagoon becomes available again and the gas-emissions aren't too high, I could see the authorities beginning regulated access to a suitable viewing point for tourists/sightseers.

A nice view of the spatter cones on the Sundhnúkar - Grindavik (Fagradalsfjall) (Cam 4) today, reminiscent of Litli-Hrutur's early days.

The PIT In my eyes there does seem a different consistency to the magma than seen with the previous 3x eruptions, with enough silica/crystals in the flow to begin building splatter cones which imo indicates a more cooled-down lava that's also being intruded by the fresh inflation. I have to wonder if the sill intrusion event 2 weeks ago has now provided a clear-run for the outflow from Svartsengi and this eruption begins to tie more in-line with the Fagradalsfjall eruptions in terms of longevity.

It's difficult to tell visually how much the amount of output has declined overnight, Svartsengi GPS shows a 100mm (10cm) drop in ground elevation since the eruption began but as we're transitioning from a initial 3km fissure to more individual cone-vents, it might give the appearance of being more vigorous due to the more concentrated eruption areas than it actually is.

Quite a fast moving event for now which caught me off guard as I was checking the cams only a minute or two after the fissure initially erupted, not expecting to be seeing anything. The southern arm of the lava-flow looks like it can easily reach the south coast by sunrise if eruptive rate continues.

What's that in the sky this morning? a glowing white light amongst a sea of blue? could it be the elusive sunshine we've all been waiting for over the past few weeks typically it's not going to last for long but it's very much welcome to stay going in-to Spring.

No eruption (yet) this morning although EQ activity is slightly elevated in background-levels this morning compared to all day yesterday with a few at shallow depths. Magma inflow was calculated to have been at 1.2 mill consistently over the past 3 days , and for the chamber as a whole it's now estimated to be at a volume of 14.8 million. Any eruption now would be happening at a lower chamber volume than the January eruption, however give/take another 2 days and it'll have surpassed that rate by inflow volume and we'll be entering into new territory seeing just how much the ground at Svartsengi can handle what's beneath it. Something will have to give, by force, if all is still quiet by Wednesday.

Another intrusion event or eruption is more than likely within the next 48hr as the magma accumulating beneath Svartsengi is reaching it's volume criticality, and as with last week the eastern 'push' of the magma chamber is beginning to trigger earthquakes again (this time towards Keilir). Based on the pattern behaviour last time a similar signature was seen i'd estimate a intrusion/eruption at some-point within the next 12 hours. Skjálfti VAFRI.IS Skjálfti

Quite the pea-souper this morning with persistent hill fog & light drizzle shrouding the upper slopes around the Peak District, passing over Rushup Edge was particularly fun at 6am as the visibility dropped down to no more than 10 meters ahead with the beginnings of daylight just occasionally offering a glimmer of respite. At least the weather worked in my favour whilst on a short wander around Padley Gorge, capturing the ethereal tree silhouettes amongst the low-lying mist.

Scorchio Sunno can go. Summertime mild temperatures up to 21'c is perfectly fine but anything above that is when I personally start to struggle with sleepless nights, constant sweats, just generally wanting the heat & humidity to be gone ASAP. When it's colder you can at least wrap-up or exercise for warmth but when it's overbearing heat there's simply no respite for days/weeks

Post-processed last night's images via Lightroom to bring a bit more colour & depth out of the snaps, there's some cracking shots on the UK-AURORA-HUNTERS facebook page that put mine on the Nikon Z7 to shame the one down-side to living in the UK is that although we get Aurora's they aren't too frequent enough to perfect capturing them on camera.

Last night's Aurora (for those who missed it) as seen from the upper Goyt Valley at around 8.30pm, I thought it was going to be a bust given there was a pesky patch of cloud that seemed to linger off to the north for quite a while, but thankfully it shifted to the NorthEast and allowed clear-skies just as the Aurora began to kick-off.

It got as low as -724nt at 8:25pm, fortunately I had a early heads-up that something was imminent and was already set-up at the upper end of the Goyt Valley just after sunset. A short-but-sweet display with some Aurora hues still lingering on the distant horizon some 2 hours afterwards.

Lucked out on the forecast this morning as there was a nice fog inversion over the Derbyshire Dales seen from Axe Edge and nearby to Hollins Hill, I was tempted to head-up to Mam Tor/Winnats again but Manchester METAR had the inversion at 1400ft so it was 50/50 whether anything could have been seen from there. Fortunately the gamble paid off and I even got to trudge in the ankle-deep snow that's still covering across the tops.

A slight drop on the GPS with a westward trend this morning at Svartsengi but the inflation is back-up again and almost at the same level before yesterday's intrusion began, as we saw with the intrusion near Keilir last year after the July-Aug Litli-Hrutur eruption, there is always the possibility that the ground is now so elasticated that any seismic swarm/s simply can't be registered by seismometers in certain areas.

Vísbendingar um að kvikuhlaupið hafi stöðvast | Fréttir | Veðurstofa Íslands VEDUR.IS At this point, the micro-seismic activity that started just before four o'clock today has stopped. It is likely that the magma flow has stopped for the time being. Deformation continues to be measured in the area. It is therefore too early to say that the magma flow is over and that there will be no eruption this time. In the case of magma flow, deformation is measured for several hours after the seismic activity stops.

Interesting that Krisuvik had a swarm beforehand which is something that also happened 2 eruptions ago back in January. I wonder if hypothetically this is nature's warning indicator that magma is on the move across the western side of the Reykjanes and a subdued effect on the eastern, all that volume moving in a direction towards Krisuvik but being blocked by the Fagradalsfjall zone has to have a forcing component to it.

Had Worse This feature could prove interesting after sunrise as model-runs are showing it stalling on the Welsh border and sending plenty of heavy showers across the NW throughout the day before dissipating and moving north into the early hours of tomorrow, Buxton Weather Watch picked up on this yesterday evening and gave a brief 'heads up' as there's going to be some settled snowfall over the high passes.

Snow falling but not sticking here at this altitude (210m), Buxton and south into the Derbyshire Dales & Staffordshire Moorland roads are taking the higher snowfall accumulations.

It's just started snowing here after yet another glorious morning sunrise before the frontal-system rolled in, the PPN band looks much thinner than what the forecast models were predicting but it's relatively slow-moving and there's a chance of some beefier showers behind this lot into the afternoon.

It's now Friday so I'm surprised that (for now) all is quiet on the Reykjanes, it could change with little to no warning but my current thinking based on data is that magma has now found a new pathway under Svartsengi which was already in partial melt. Until this cavity is filled and re-pressurises it's going to remain quiet until the very last moment before the eruption which (if I had to guess) will occur early-hours Sunday. I could be wrong and it could go up in the next hour but current inflation rate and GPS uplift data indicates there's at least another day or two to wait.