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It's now Friday so I'm surprised that (for now) all is quiet on the Reykjanes, it could change with little to no warning but my current thinking based on data is that magma has now found a new pathway under Svartsengi which was already in partial melt. Until this cavity is filled and re-pressurises it's going to remain quiet until the very last moment before the eruption which (if I had to guess) will occur early-hours Sunday. I could be wrong and it could go up in the next hour but current inflation rate and GPS uplift data indicates there's at least another day or two to wait.

Had Worse If there's no hill fog I won't need to travel far as 1 minute to the back-garden and I can see all the way down to the Cat+Fiddle road another 1 minute to the front-garden and there's the southeastern edges of Kinder in full view. I'm optimistic of having snow on the ground at these heights (210m) but prepared for a bit of a hike if I need to get to the 'deeper stuff' before it's all gone.

https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk Tomorrow's forecast snow depths from 6am-12pm

Auknar líkur á eldgosi næstu daga | Fréttir | Veðurstofa Íslands WWW.VEDUR.IS Updated February 29 at 10:50 a.m Model calculations show that today around 8.5-9 million cubic meters of magma has accumulated under Svartsengi. The speed of the land giant has remained more or less the same for the past few days. In general, the rate of land erosion has decreased when an eruption is near. According to model calculations, around half a million cubic meters of magma accumulates under Svartsengi per day. If you look at the eve of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúks crater series, the probability of an eruption increases when the volume has reached 8 – 13 million cubic meters. If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, the upper limit will be reached next week.

It's not a question of 'if' but 'when' as that the 8mcm threshold has been passed, there was a few small 6-4km depth earthquakes this morning close to Grindavik which is indicative that the formed Graben is now reacting to the additional strain being put upon it from the Svartsengi dyke. I'd be surprised if all is still quiet on this part of the Reykjanes by Friday.

A glorious (yet unexpected) sunrise this morning as seen from Combs Res near Chapel-en-le-Frith, I lucked out getting the car defrosted before heading out otherwise i'd have missed out on seeing the best of the colours before overcast skies rolled in from the west.

Sunspot group AR3590 as seen from the top of Mam Tor (Peak District) this morning, there's currently a 30% chance of a significant CME at this time as it faces Earth directly with the sunspot now half the size of the one that caused the Carrington Event back in 1859.

You had to be up early at the crack of dawn to have gotten the best of today's weather, I joined the crowds up at Mam Tor to see the fog inversion down the Hope Valley and wasn't disappointed given the forecast was supposed to have been completely overcast. Even the significantly large sunspot AR3590 was easy to spot (briefly) through the higher clouds just a few minutes after sunrise.

On my way into Glossop this morning and there was a bit of snow falling over the tops during the more intense showers, just enough for a few patches to have settled along the Snake Pass summit but it probably won't be there for too long now that the sun is out.

Major X-Class 6.37 flare has just erupted from AR3590

Sunspot AR3590 is beginning to get spicy with 2 X-Class bursts overnight although no CME has yet been observed, this sunspot will be the one to watch over the next few days as it turns to face Earth head-on and with more potential for stronger X-Class bursts.

Reports of flooding in the Harpur Hill area of Buxton this morning, the rain was relentless during the early hours of this morning and is already having a knock-on effect with lane closures on the M60+M62.

Apologies if this is in the wrong thread, but I come upon this video by chaser Tanner Charles who got caught-up in a EF3 Tornado outside of Lewistown,IL last year on April 4th. Aside from a few scratches it's a miracle that all 4 in this car (including another chaser nearby who also ended up in the same situation) survived.

I don't know what's more depressing.. the lack of snow this winter or the abundance of overcast skies, even when the forecast was saying 'mostly sunny' for this afternoon. Bring on Spring showers and Summer high-pressure. At least i've seen the first Daffodils of the year in full-bloom amongst the Snowdrops so not all is lost.

It's not been a bad day here despite the cloud and there was a bit of early-afternoon sunshine for 15mins at around 2pm which briefly pushed the temperatures up to 12'c, i've been living in the Peak District for the past 37 years and only today have I finally visited a somewhat busy Padley Gorge after hearing all the hype about the place.

A nice drive out to Alton today under the morning blue skies, it's just a shame the rest of the week looks to be typically overcast with plenty of rain despite the snowdrops & daffodils almost making an appearance.

Iceland's Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management said a state of emergency was declared Thursday after consulting with emergency officials in the area. Officials said that the main pipeline that delivers hot water to the region was destroyed after lava flowed over it, causing a lack of hot water. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68237327 It's currently forecast to be -7'c tonight and tomorrow on the Reykjanes with the only hot-water reserve tanks set to run-dry within 6 hours (if used sparingly), the main concern is that 20,000 of the population will be needing to keep their homes warm to stop pipes from freezing-over and the only feasible means of doing this is by them using the electricity grid at max capacity. Certainly going to be a juggling act over the next few hours/days as to how much indirect damage this eruption is going to cause.

We've seen some snow here today, but nothing near the 15-20cm that was predicted with only Buxton copping the best of today's totals. A Yellow warning was necessary but the Amber was a bit overkill.

From DCC. And the snow keeps on coming .... we are now starting to see road closures due to the white stuff. Please don't travel unless absolutely necessary, particularly in the Peak District. These roads are now closed: A57 Snake Pass A54/A537 Cat & Fiddle Road A53 Leek Road A5004 Long Hill A6024 Holme Moss A515 Between Brierlow Bar and Buxton A624 Chunal - just

Very marginal here at 210m, looking east in-to the valley from the front and it's just sleet with no snow settling whilst looking west at the back towards the hills and it's settled snow all-around. There's already been a overturned car on the A5004 closing it both ways. Flash Bar Cafe and Shop WWW.MACCINFO.COM Flash bar Stores, the highest village stores in Britain, now offers a coffee shop.

Thar she goes again at Sylingarfell. The forecast of a eruption between the 7th - 11th based on computer-model accumulation rates were spot on, and i'll be interested to hear if the borehole at the power-plant fluctuated in temp+pressure beforehand, and whether the Icelandic volcanologists will now use this method going forward in giving a few hours 'heads up' notice about future eruptions in this area. 4 hours later and the eruption-rate seems to have dropped significantly with a common trend now forming in this volcanic complex where it releases magma after a certain input point is met, but the eruptive rate compared to what's been seen at Fagradalsfjall is fairly short lived.

Just a few hours before the Amber warning comes in-to effect here and luckily I managed to pick up my new Hyundai i10 from Stoke this afternoon without needing to worry about the weather, plenty of grit is already being spread on the A53 Staffordshire-side but it seems that Derbyshire are typically using their stock sparingly.