Andy_
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Posts posted by Andy_
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Morning all!
Well here's today's and there has been some more snow in Scandi' plus, there's been an interestingly southerly fall around the Alabama/Mississippi area.
Yes the negative anomaly is Scandinavia is definitely beginning to retreat
More focussed over Eastern Europe, yet there have been some hints from the models that a cold blast may be headed there before not too long, so overall i think things are going well -
Correct me if i'm wrong, but i think Steve was referring to this little fella off the western coast of Iceland
Who then disappears somewhat and then reforms more pronounced over Southern Sweden
Just a thought?
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I think its fair to say the cold front just hit us like a ton of bricks here! Torrential downpour and very hefty gusts
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Things are starting to look up!
Not bad at all if this can get into the reliable -
Very cold Friday morning in Scotland before the next big storm system moves in
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Just a quick question or two from someone who knows very little about our stratosphere,
What causes the stratosphere to cool (apart from general seasonal variability)? and why is it so cold at present? Thanks
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Excellently explained and presented
By far the most professional forecast i've seen yet... If only the Met Office had the courage to deliver a forecast such as yourselves.Let's hope the Stratosphere plays ball!
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I think someones been messing with the GFS this afternoon/evening!
12Z
18Z
I'm personally not inclined to believe either of them at the minute, and i think the GFS is just trying different options before it get's a hold on the upcoming pattern. Nice cold Scandi though!
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Looks like old Mr Madden is getting some more coverage http://news.uk.msn.c...d-snow-and-cold Really makes me laugh how hyped up these reports are, as much as I would like to see a 'classic' winter, I never believe articles that are written in such a manner! Come March he could be looking for a new career or stating that he was a year out and that he really meant it for 2012/13
I bet Mr Madden is regretting getting all this attention, as if it all goes to pot, which is looking like a fair possibility for the start - mid December, he's going to look very foolish, and will be ridiculed by weather forum and the general British public alike!
Then again, we might have a belting December starting by Mid Monthish and he will be praised as God! (at least by the Daily Mail)... the CFS has been performing better, i especially enjoyed the 6z run for all that it's worth.
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uhoh!
A storm system may soon take on tropical characteristics in the middle of the Atlantic and sweep through the Azores and United Kingdom next week.http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/57963/atlantic-disturbance-could-bru.asp
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Did anyone cringe at Kate Humble describing a snow patch on the "Will it snow programme" last night as the first snow of winter. It was in actual fact left over from last years snow and the patch has been well documented. You would think they would do some research.
She also said that the start of 'Winter' was the 1st of November... lol.
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Thought i'd post todays saying no-one else has yet! :winky:
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Incredible how folk speak for others....or do they? Any forecast IMO is very welcome on here...or should be...and we should judge its accuracy and reasoning AFTER the event, not before. But that is the issue and a part reason why I ain't bothering this year.
BFTP
I was actually really looking forward to your forecast BFTP :/
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In my Geography A-Level we were taught that a cold front marks the boundary between Tropical Maritime and Polar Maritime air, meaning that as the low pressure passes over the country the warm front will firstly give us a taste of Tropical Maritime, and then as the cold front passes we are introduced to the cooler Polar Maritime airmass.
Of course in a real situation it is never this straight forward, and there are countless other factors affecting the positioning of the fronts of air and what weather conditions they may entail. But generally yes the cold front is meant to bring cooler air inevitably after a period of heavy rainfall as the front passes.
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Reports coming in that it's the work of man-bear-pig
i'm super serial!!
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Here's an article I wrote on the winter of 1894-95
South Shields was severely affected by 15 hours of continous snowfallforcing the closure of the shipyard.
Oh wow i liked this bit LOL
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Just to show the snow that's fell on those lucky Americans in Colorado at 39 degrees (latitude) north... Darn our Maritime climate that should be us!!
Just to note that it's also falling in NEW MEXICO, and TEXAS right now -.- even worse! haha
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56943/denver-winter-wonderland-reach.asp
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Hearing Rumbles of Thunder, wasn't expecting that tonight
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just download google chrome that has spell check built in
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And for comparison, here's last years!
Notice, it's where the ice touches the coast that we see the best snowfalls, so not long to go imo!
It looks as if the ice is going to meet the Russian Continent in a slightly more easterly position than last year, this might be why its taking longer as it's slightly further south than the 'sticky up bit' of central northern russia in 2010
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Even Netweather's LFR has things maybe warming up into 2012 so people shouldn't get there hopes up just becasue certain forecasts in the media state "Cold Winter", "Mini Ice age" ect.
Winter
December
Winter is expected to begin with the northern blocking still in place, and this means that temperatures are forecast to be below average for much of the country. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to, or a little below normal for the time of year.
January
As is always the case, the further into the forecast we go, the lower confidence there is so please bear this in mind as we look ahead to January..
Current expectations are that January will bring something of a change in pattern with Atlantic low pressure having more influence and bring milder temperatures with rainfall close to the the seasonal average too.
Even if December is cold it's not certain to have the same levels of snow as last year.
i don't remember December 2010 having high levels of precipitation across the UK? yet many people got a lot of snow so don't jump to conclusions... also that forecast says CLOSE TO or A LITTLE below average (y)
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UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Oct 2011 to Friday 28 Oct 2011:
Starting chilly across the UK with showers for most areas carried in a cool northwesterly wind, and snow showers on the mountains of Scotland and possibly to low levels too in the far northeast.
Low level snow possible for the far north east of Scotland into next week according to the Met Office... Winter is definitely starting to appear!
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Disappointing! An average if not mild winter overall
At least there's still time for change!you kidding?! mentioning northern blocking for 2 consecutive months is enough for me like, you can't get the temperatures right at this stage.
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http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=
wow! at netweathers long range forecast! (sorry if you wanted to make a new thread or whatever on this netweather LOL)
looking very good for November/ December!!!
More focussed over Eastern Europe, yet there have been some hints from the models that a cold blast may be headed there before not too long, so overall i think things are going well 
At least there's still time for change!
Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Tell you what the Scottish Ski resorts are going to be doing very well over the next couple weeks, rarely outside of the -5 850hpa air for long
I think this chart shows increased depths over western scotland due to the North-Westerly airstream, catching more showers the further towards western coasts you are.