[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Really is kick in the teeth after such a long drawn out Winter but not complaining. D11 of falling about half of seasonal average for me, so March has some catching up

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Nice huge flakes now & settling quite easily 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Bit of a sleety mix just starting

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

In essence though - For those still chasing cold/snowier outcomes, I think it might almost be time to give up the ghost. 

With the unreliability of most of the models/teleconnections beyond 10 days, it's a brave person to make forecasts out to the far envelope of possibilities which is different obviously depending on location & altitude.

For me, as Cambrian states it's the lack of an organised trop PV which I feel has blighted the usual IMBY opportunities, as 10 falling days is below average thus far up here.

The 'normal' zonal pattern does nearly always present gaps in the Griceland area for a good old omega block but this seasons disjointed & disorganised tPV patterns, due to the early Canadian warming, won't be on my Christmas list next year for sure.

My birthday after mid month does more often than not end up snowy, so for me I'll hold out till 21st with the towel

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81 for me there's amplitude & waves about if not in our locale, will hopefully work it's way around, much like a skipping rope.

I'm starting to come to the conclusion, I'm not a fan of fragmented PV as pretty much zero Polar Maritime incursions this season, which yeah doesn't deliver for all but at least it's some excitement every few weeks & a strong ESB storm does often pump up WAA towards Greeny.

Still, we get what we're given but 10 days of falling snow, for me, is a bit poor given the supposed signals

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Chris Smith yeah, same height as here & 3cm on grass though has been marginal so quite wet snow but enough to cause issues on main roads.

Still only D9 of snow, which is v poor

 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Finally got a covering & the crimbo tree that is acting as a windbreaker for the greenhouse got it's first flakes

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 NorthEastSnow yeah mates near coast just rain still. Had snow a bitb earlier but mostly light graupel. The apps suggest a few hours of it but looking at radar, certainly seems altitude required

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Quite heavy flakes now though still waiting to settle on grass 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Certainly an interesting 10 days ahead & lack of moisture, at least, won't be the issue. The sweet spots still to be resolved I'd have thought but I'd not push ECM 12z out of bed

[Model banter and emotions]

 blizzard81 yip & the high winds this weekend doing a good job of drying the swamps out

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Pleasant change to have some interest & cooling down before the mid month interest, as dreaded the idea of a long drawn out chase, whilst wading through 2 weeks of upgrades/downgrades

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

22 minutes ago, Dennis said:

here the Jet EC12z ... check NE USA 

thats the breakpoint 

so wait on next runs and a MJO7 (event) is poss helping 

 

Amazing how far South the disintegrated tPV is pushing the jet South, until you get to the Atlantic ofcourse then that Northern Arm just too strong to be of any use atm

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

34 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

A large north Pacific ridge shown to form, which catches my eye

Yeah GFS was toying with this extending to create an Arctic High, which did look interesting but dropped the idea but if Pacific High gets legs, who knows...

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Have to say watching the Northern Hemisphere on the GFS is mesmerising, watching the trop pv just disintegrate & well within the reliable, so the jet will be squeezed South hemispherically which surely must increase our chances.

And if that Arctic High enters the game at t267, surely a further push South....

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

58 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Bank  

Marry

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

thought the ecm ens look better than what I've seen for some time,yet some are not really convinced! For me weve taken a slight step forward today rather than the usual 2 steps back.

Defo an improvement with the ECM 10 dayer, hopefully not a long drawn out affair this time

[Where did the quote button go?]

3 hours ago, Paul said:

The quote function is still available if you want to use it - just highlight a post (or portion of it) and click the 'quote selection' button which appears. The quoted text will automatically go into the post

Does this also include charts if you highlight the 1st chart, say?

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Sister been sending pics from near Paris. We really need a lot of luck on our side at times when those 500 miles further South are getting copious snow, whilst all most got was mainly frozen ground & dustings.

Seeing as pattern changes occurr on 14 day basis, still 5 more chases possible I guess so not all bad. Let's hope the Scandi evolves differently though, as UK retrogression all a bit meh

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS like a dog with a bone here.. 

Have to say, I've now seen 1 too many slow run ins of UK HP retrograde to Greeny failures, in the last 3 years to never again be drawn in, so to see an Azores HP retrogression to Scandy appear, which has a better success rate, I'm all in.

Stick yr Azores HP is a Winter killer where the sun aint shining

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

12 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 12z Op 850's for 2nd Feb

Worth keeping an eye on without getting too excited for another 7 days or so

Pretty sure I got down by a few for suggesting the Azores HP can often lead to greatness & shouldn't be treat with the whitewash distain it does. MJOs evolution of about 14 days, AAM & ongoing amplification within the global NH system was always going to present opps.

So 14 days from now seems about right

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

There are some beauties in the GFS ENS.

Many of those showing how an Iberian HP can be instrumental 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..

We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

Fastest break in history, 10 minutes was it? I'm still in the shuffling High camp & yeah it may not be where WE need it at present, as over the Pacific but if there's amplification about, it's only a matter of time 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Day_9 said:

Hands up who remembers this time last week…… it was all “in the bag”…… until it wasn’t 

You're dreaming mate, no one said anything was 'in the bag' & don't really recall anyone mentioning snow for that reason. I think we're all seasoned enough to know not to wax the sledges till at least a couple of days before & well due Northerlies will always have that wishbone effect & we were just very incredibly unlucky. Me I'm on D8 of thanks to these last 2 days, so not all lost.

Alas, onto the next chase where hopefully there will be an Easterly element. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Bit of a splattering just as I was leaving for a business trip to Coventry. If I miss all the action I'll be livid. Still Day 7 ticked