geordiekev

January 14

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Round 2? - plenty of runs yet for this to upgrade.

This is what I'm hoping for. A true Atlantic born HP. The retrogressing ones weve had, are long, tedious & as per latest not really delivered.

Whereas Atlantic driven HPs, with AAM on our side has better potential for Greenies & retrogression to Scandi

January 13

Good to see Atlantic driven HP systems as after this chase it really has cemented that I'm no fan of UK HP retrogression, as all seem to end up a bit meh

January 12

1 hour ago, Gowon said:

With all these chases Ambassador you are spoiling us

January 12

24 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Whilst these are great charts, they show a real lack of the convective wind speeds required for snow showers and low pressure structure required for trough development.

Way too early to be discussing snow chances still, until a consensus is within the reliable. Hence, not too worried about interun variables just yet, as long as the macro pattern still looks peachy, I'm happy

January 11

32 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

First signs of a wedge appearing at 144 on the GFS off the ESB. Could be good this!? (hopefully haven't jinxed it!).

And look at the differences at the same point on the 6z. Massive uncertainty, certainly for the GFS

Any more West based & the GH will end up in Scandi

January 11

4 hours ago, Mark Neal. said:

12z compared to 18z. Shows the difference and shift south. All part of the envelope.

Might need an airmail sticker on that envelope if it progs much further South

January 7

49 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

How many runs have we watched this count down?

Yeah, was just thinking the same. Never has such a run in felt this long. To think it was 22nd Dec when tomorrows promising charts appeared & soon after became apparent a week long cool down was the order of the day.

To see the goods within the T200 mark is nice to see. Only problem now is it's not just GFS providing the period of interest, so every model now having it's own interpretation for end of the week.

Plenty of hope going around though

January 6

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Control looks good day 8

Weren't similar outcomes still at t300 mark, till yesterday & suddenly jumped fwd a few days.

Me I'm still happy to have a drying out period as has been modelled since Christmas & as ever the run in will always show options, good & bad.

Feet still on ground until the concensus is decided upon, so will be an even more tense week but looking forward to crisp brighter skies in the meantime & see what kind of results these charts could produce

January 6

2 hours ago, Allseasons-Si said:

And everyone was throwing the towels in by a few wobbly runs,pick them back up and wipe the sweat away...

To see evolutions that appeared much later in the runs of recent, now getting within the D10s is quite something.

From La La Land to ooh la la. Ofcourse now it's within the cross hairs of all models, expect swings both ways, so best not get too excited or despondent.

The 0z GFS this week, bar 1, I believe, all had spoiler lows preventing the Pacific/Greeny Highs, so would love to know why that is. Hence, I've been reviewing the full day of runs, rather than 1 timeset & good to see the outcome I'd prefer, just for the rarity value, now modelled slightly sooner.

January 5

3 hours ago, TEITS said:

Going to be honest I am disappointed with the commentary on here these past 24hrs. So much so I couldn't be bothered to post.

Lets begin by saying some of the model output these past 24hrs has been sensational and you could not draw any better charts for the UK. I would even go as far to say the best cold weather output I have seen. So when the bar has been set so high you are bound to see less impressive runs. However even the less impressive runs will deliver what many seek.

The GEFS/ECM mean continue to be fantastic, especially the ECM.

Some people have been referring to a W based NAO. The ECM mean at +240 does the opposite as to me a W based NAO is when the blocking backs W and allows SW,lys via atlantic low pressure systems moving in. The ECM mean is extending the block even further S. The ECM even causes a low pressure in the Atlantic to move W!!

Lets also not forget the argument that all cold spells downgrade is flawed. Even recently some were suggesting the GFS would be right and we wouldn't even have an E,ly next week as low pressure was supposed to track NE into Iceland and our HP sinking over the UK.

Moving onwards and at the moment even the transitional phase from the E,ly to a Greenland block is uncertain with regards to timing and detail and won't be resolved for another 72hrs. I could spend all day typing out various scenarios beyond this for mid Jan onwards.

Overall a wintry outlook is most likely but could this be a convective N,ly or Bitter convective ENE,ly or will low pressure approach from the SW bringing a blizzard to some locations. Another option is low pressure in the atlantic phasing with the low that is moving S from the arctic, enhancing the bitter flow from the ENE.

Worth remembering that till today we only had GFS to model the 2nd cherry & GH evolution, which is now appearing on the D10s, so now we can start looking for concensus.

If this morning anything to go by, suggest some find another hobby

January 5

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Just a note, it’s perfectly plausible this goes west based because all winter the strat warming has been focussed towards Canada.

West based solutions dont just come out of nowhere though, they evolve so at what T do you think that may be, serious Q? T420, way beyond FI, so a little bit too much emphasis, trying to go beyond the 2 week mark.

Let's get the first blocks in

January 4

8 minutes ago, IrelandWeather said:

I thought I was understanding this west based -NAO more this week from reading posts about it but clearly I'm still stumped clearly!

If you have time can you explain why the GFS 12z FI isn't an example of west-based? Say Day 9/10 onwards. High migrates NW to Greenland, but it doesn't stop there and continually moves westward towards Canada (maybe moves is the wrong word, it's clearly weakening/draining away as it pulls towards Canada rather than a strong block moving west). It ends up with SW'lys by the end of the run.

Perhaps others commenting about west-based -NAO, when it is in fact not being shown on any runs, have also confused what it is like me, in the sense of interpreting what I outlined above from the GFS 12z as being an example of it? I'm a novice so literally thought it meant the HP moves westwards towards Canada! TY in advance if you do shed some light on it.

Yeah March last year was good example. It pivoted so far West I was actually viewing models on their sides to see where the cold was going. Not there at the moment but is certainly 1 of many outcomes but let's get the Greeny high in reliable first

January 4

18 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yep. There are some extremely half empty comments in here this evening. This is EC 240

Strong block, southerly displaced jet, shattered vortex with the main remnants over Asia, flow over the U.K. north of east following around a week of steadily falling temperatures. As an overall pattern what more do folk wish to see?

Could be a good time to bring back the 72h thread, for those afraid to dream

January 4

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Week beginning15th

Think the EC46 called this blocking spell a while back & to be fair GFS had a mean way back on 22nd Dec, at T384, almost identical to the det 12 days later (yesterday).

Quite astounding & a reminder GFS can be useful for trends at the far reaches, just it normally drops them soon after

January 4

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you this folks.. My Dad would have been just as excited as many of us and especially at the prospect of snow. Thanks Dad continue to smile down on me..and thanks for so many well wishes over the last couple of weeks.

GEM is well...its a diamond

Deepest sympathies for today Matt & if your Dad was as much as a snow lover as yourself, I'm sure he's pulling a few strings.

Completely diff circs but similar happened when I lost my black lab, who like me adored the snow & I'd like to think he had a paw in delivering the very next day & a further 3 in the 2 weeks that followed in March '19.

But defo raise a glass to the superb charts & upgrades of late

January 4

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON 144 12Z V 6Z

That quickly escalated

January 4

7 hours ago, offerman said:

this chart for me is the absolute pinnacle if this could verify.

Decided to catch much needed nap between 0z & work but the ECM d10 is high risk/reward. As I mentioned last night. 8th March '23 had great synoptics but did go too west based, so we ended up at wrong receiving end of the bitterly cold flow per below.

However, the signals are all favourable atm so would have to get v unlucky again if we ended up with such a good looking pattern but a few miles made it a UK bust.

Looking fwd to this arvos for sure

January 4

Well that's me happy. We've passed the point that was contentious so happy to snooze for now

January 4

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its about to now though, and possibly produce an almighty dumping in the process.

Now that's an upgrade, now the 0z is coming on board too. That's the full gfs suite

January 4

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yeh hopefully an outlier, but it will probably still get there at day 12.

Ukmo at 168 looks good too

They are missing the propping lows, been the same last 3 0zs. Hence need to compare 0z to 0z, 18z to 18z. Oddity indeed

This one I've been banging drum is uber important to squeeze the vortex limb & aid the WAA tilt

January 4

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS hasn't kicked in yet though, a slow moving shortwave on the southern tip of Greenland is delaying things.

It's the 0z, seems to like to produce shortwaves at tips for some odd reason

Must be 3rd day in row it has but was on both Pacific & Greeny side last 2 days

January 3

And from stage right & left the 2 props

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994060

January 3

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The first few flakes?

Sunday

Temperatures gradually reducing from supporting snow only >400m early on Sunday afternoon to scattered cooled pockets of ground level snow line due to surface cooling by late allowing some of the rogue flurries to fall as sleet / wet snow >50miles inland where showers interact with surface cold, where this cooling does not occur due to cloud etc rain/sleet more likely. Freezing levels around 500m with significant surface warming in the east initially leading to high wet bulb driven melting widely.

Sunday night looks to bring a tight NNE wind which may produce a Kent clipper which would either be full snow or marginal dependent on depth of surface cold modulated by uppers influencing freezing level and wind speed which affect surface dew point layer. Stronger winds are an issue here. Potential for something interesting if it coincides with a cold sector and lightish winds as seen on ICON again which drops off uppers quickly into Monday early hours. -7/-9 850hpa core required so only a 25/30% chance as per current modelling. Combined with evaporative cooling could allow temporary ground level snow lines near the coast Kent etc. Also depends on this NNE wind being retained on output. Localized 2-6cm possible under best case scenario.

Monday

On Monday soundings improve where a 400m asl freezing level is enough in low dew point surface air 20-30 miles inland North of Essex for nocturnal wet snow showers and accumulation at night depends on precipitation though with daytime mixed wet precipitation. Nearer sea the long wind fetch North of Essex likely to result in near coastal warm layers. Few spots perhaps seeing a dusting at night Midlands Pennines East Wales.

Note less precip in SE later Monday but also lower dew points so more likely to fall as snow near to coast Essex South so any rogue flurries will probably be a greater snow to rain ratio than further North.

Bar the potential Kent clipper and perhaps some more organised very light precip Sunday night this is really only the odd shower. These will occur *as long as 500mb heights are kept below 556hpa*. Even if nothing appears on high res.

My snow sense is a bit rusty for obvious reasons.

Kasim ❄

Was hoping you'd be getting the crayons out soon. Still a few runs to get real excited but good to see your prospects out of the loft

January 3

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I'm not sure I've seen a chart as bizarre as this before!? The whole PV shifted to the Asia/Europe side.

Slower evolution, but let's get real, it's absolutely sensational!

Not too dissimilar to what we had in March last year. Unfortunately the undercut on that occassion, per the norm managed to spoil it due to too West based, so still staying grounded till consensus & within D5.

Expect variations for a few runs yet

January 3

Just now, Mike Poole said:

It does have a certain pleasing symmetry to it this setup, doesn’t it?

Yip, nice squeeze on the vortex limbs to aid WAA

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