geordiekev
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Posts posted by geordiekev
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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:...no snow will settle on flooded fields.
It will, even on my fish pond on 2nd December. However much to my horror my boot went straight through the 6cm of snow in the fields & then a further 15cm of mud in the swamps out there and came back squelching.
So yes, I'm pretty sure we all had this discussion about 10 days ago about what kind of High to expect this weekend, a cold one I believe was the consensus, so not much change bar the carrot yesterday, so onwards to the much touted 2nd bite.
Don't throw your tickets away yet, it's a rollover I hear & the next draw is about 2hr away
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23 hours ago, Gregulator said:
I've told the wife now.....
I'll get your coat
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9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
The issue with the mid month retrogression is the modelled extent of the UK high. With it so large the retrogression signal may not be enough to detatch it from the Hadley cell. Another issue with this is the potential for the cold shot to slide east of the UK with the UK high staying relatively fixed.
Where's this Hadley cell you speak of? Seems almost non existent on latest ECM
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Evening, been extremely busy at work yesterday and today . Been watching the last 48hrs of runs and they’ve been brilliant. Them means are superb for so far out . Been a few cracking op runs too . Full steam ahead cho cho .
UKMO 850s
-10s fairly widpread in England 
Not sure why some are downbeat this is are best chance at a notable cold spell in Jan for well seems like forever
It's just feels like being in the queue to the best candy shop, then to discover their giving all the sweets away for free, but unfortunately we're all at the back of the queue, which is round the block.
Sorry, couldn't resist as place needs lightening up a bit. Personally, I still have Tamara, Eagle Eye, Kirkcaldy et al assuring us that the sweety jars may move around but we'll all get some, unless Nick Sussex is aware of a joke jar of sprouts that is.
For now HP is on the menu & the drivers apparently, are keeping it at altitude, if not mobile, so may give diff parts a bite at the cherry lips. Me I'm salivating at the split vortex charts, so maybe being a bit too picky
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2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
Its a great chart from an imby perspective. I hope it comes to fruition! If it does then Kudos to the UKMO texted forecast which signposted this
Yeah, almost perfect, Atlantic HP, propping low & a NE flow from frigid air. For me, I just remember last Spring, last chance saloon with similar synoptics where the superb undercut ended up too good it was bad for our tiny island.
However, the fact each run is throwing up different stonkers in FI can only be good. Gonna be a tense run in to this cold
spell
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12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
It doesn’t end up too bad
No this has March 23 shudders, where we ended in wrong flow direction. So long as doesn't pivot too much like these perfect synoptics ended up a failure.
Way too far in FI & just 1 pert, so all in play
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11 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Why is it called fi?
Once again that low in Pacific, deciding on the Pacific High & Canadian/Alaskan vortex elongation.
If it remains separated the split tpv seems the dessert, if merges, Pacific High sinks & more organised vortex.
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1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Get ya coat...you've pulled.
There's growing evidence we are going colder...I'll say too the missus when it lands you better put ya coat on tonight..oh great Matt are you taking me out? No love I'm turning off the heating..
Yeah the interaction of that low in the Pacific is seemingly having a lot of knock on effects. If it gets absorbed the Pacific High sinks & less squeeze on the Canadian vortex.
Excuse the diff views from the 0z. Can't remember if it was Nick who said for sanity to only compare 0z to 0z, 12z to 12z. I've never liked the 0z but you know what, their constant overnight downgrades always seem to come to pass, unless that's just probabilistic chance.
Edit: my geography is naff, so excuse if I get wrong locations. That's how I ended up at Swansea Uni, was convinced it was Midlands or London re DVLA location
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1 minute ago, Malarky said:
Even the shortwaves on the other side of the globe are out to get us now!
Yeah made big differences down the line & almost a link-up at t324 on 18z. Plenty of water to tredge through though before then
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Although doesnt effect us too much, a shortwave at Western Alaska at d10 prevents the High over there climbing, thus no spit tpv compared to 18z
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Well the energy companies will be rubbing their hands at that run. Frigid throughout, rarely getting above 4/5C daytime maxima
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It's rare in hen's teeth that these come off but to see several models showing the split. Just wow
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Just now, Frigid said:
I just know someone's gonna mention 'west based NAO'
What a run.. a far cry from what we saw yesterday.
More interested in the link up a la EC control earlier
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Come to Daddy
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2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
A nice FI
Yip if we can tap into the cold oop North now.
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And then the Northerns turn
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The Pacific coast high defo gaining traction so just need the second bite to cut through
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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:
Watch for the re amplification coming out of NE Canada,...it's more pronounced on this run..
Liking the greater area of HP coming from the opposite side of our High, through the Arctic. Will we get something EC control like
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New Year, New Resolutions. Yes I'm talking to you @GFS @ICON @GEM ...
Where there's High Pressure there's hope gang. To health, happiness & HP
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Did I miss the ECM? Went to make dinner & cocktails and 200 posts & not sure if anyone posted it or it passed me by amongst the angst.
C'mon we're only 31 days into Winter, 10 of meteorological, so we havn't really had as many failures as some are making out.
Enjoy the evening, remember those close by & well if all the models are pointing towards a dry January, I'll certainly take it, as the last snow was on top of a swamp & mud ended up over the boots.
The takeaway is High Pressure is milling around & those knowledgeable of the drivers, say it will be mobile & not static HP. Plenty of time in '24 for a Big Break
7 days and still much to be resolved from the main 3, so chill. Ciao for now
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What happened here. Talk about mixed signals
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
And an ideally positioned low anomoly, doesn't get much better barring a very strong Easterly