Maz

Thanks for your insight Matt. We were not helped that last night was so cloudy. I was up at 6am and most surfaces were wet, just some grass / dirt surfaces, away from tree cover with ice. If overnight ground temp had dropped under clear skies it might have made a big difference today? Every detail matters when it is so marginal. Is it failing to settle even at 900ft for you?

Same here. Much more falling snow than I expected, sadly zero settling so far. Different story above 250m...although the hills I can normally see have disappeared into the gloom again now the snow has pepped up. I'm sure it's still accumulating well up there though.

Snow has stopped and visibility improved. Several hours steady snow left pathetic dusting that instantly melted when it stopped. Im at 150m, looking over to the hills, very clear snow line around 250m, with a good covering above that. Pretty much what MetO indicated. Maybe when the front returns south the “settling” level will fall….

Same over the other side of the West Pennine hills in Ramsbottom. (150m ASL) Maybe the hint of a slight covering on the grass, but so far the heavier the snow the quicker it melts.....

Steady snow all morning here - far more than I expected given the SE'ly wind. However, it's not settling, just a bit too warm/insufficient intensity. Nice to look at, so not a complete fail....but frustrating.

I would agree 100%. Snow shield currently partially malfunctioning and snow is getting to the ground here in North Manchester - not enough to give a covering yet, but it’s trying! Once the initial front passes, I expect the “rain shadow” to kick in and it turn dry, whilst the higher areas etc still get snow. Then fingers crossed the returning front later this evening delivers across the region.

….until it evaporates on approaching Manchester as the rain shadow impacts kick in

“Many in Lancashire…” not all. He had already said 40cm in Pennine areas (some of which are in Lancashire). He was making the point about marginality and local differences (didn’t mention it, but will have been thinking of the rain shadow effect)

Matt Taylor on R4 weather forecast: 40cm in Peak/ Pennines, with drifting and blizzards, peak risk this evening and overnight. Then he said many areas in Grtr Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire might see “precious little”. His exact words! Thats killed the mood stone dead!

The lightest possible snow. So light, can almost count the individual flakes. Snow shield largely intact!

100m!!! Not even up in the clouds does @Kasim Awan get that. Tomorrow it seems they are!

Spot the hole!!!!

There is science behind it. The radar reflects off rain drops or snow flakes, so it shows rain/snow. However with a dry surface layer they evaporate before hitting the ground, so it’s dry for us. If the radar results were modified to account for dry surface layer conditions they would massively understate precipitation when more normal saturated conditions prevail. I’m sure more sophisticated rain radar products must link to atmospheric profile, but presumably not the standard products we get access to?

Shows what a bit of altitude does to expectations, and outcomes. In the 15+ years I’ve lived in Ramsbottom, which is far from a snow desert, only 3 events have got over 15cm. All in the 2009 and 2010 spells. Nothing else over 10cm! Although I guess 2018 did have two falls of over 15cm, except they were so powdery and the wind so strong and gusty, everything blew away really fast.

Hope you do get some snow up in Cumbria. Also for @Thunder Snow as well. Do you remember we used to have a really knowledgeable poster from coastal West Cumbria. Barely saw a flake in all the years he was on, but was still enthusiastic for everyone else, and over the moon when he got a thin covering. Makes the rest of the region seem like snow magnets!

Brilliant Chris. Thanks. As you suspected, no above zero layer. Surface temps (150m here) just become positive for a time tomorrow afternoon, before becoming sub zero to the surface again overnight Friday. My conclusion: snow throughout, but getting wetter for a short time unless a bit of evaporated cooling. Doesn’t tell me anything about precipitation intensity though of course!! Every day is a school day. Thanks Chris.

No problem Chris. I’ve never viewed the temp profile at such small intervals before. So seeing it for your location, in such an atypical situation (not getting colder with altitude at the lower layers) and varying in a short space of time (pre front, partially squeezed out warm sector and cold/ occluded front) was really interesting.

Yes, please do send a link for Ramsbottom, will be interesting to see the differences. It’s a good learning opportunity.

Top of M62 (highest motorway point in England!) Best guess: 8am no problem, heavier by 12pm, but no real problems. By 6pm risk of heavy, drifting snow and severe congestion.

That’s a good source. Where do you set the location? at the location used looks like it would snow to sea level at 24 hours, turn to rain/sleet at 36hours and back to snow at 48 hours (if there was precipitation). Which is what you have been saying, unless the above zero layer is squeezed out.

Just toured the regional threads quickly. Higher elevations in the South Wales Valley’s look to be the only area that got a “proper” covering today. Temporary covers in northern parts of SW England and across to Essex, rain further south. Also a band around Birmingham to Leicester and onwards east, that are getting a reasonable, but not big cover just now. Lots of moaning (like on here!). Many complaining the intensity of the precipitation is lower than forecast - which may be our issue tomorrow if on or near western Pennine slopes. Anyone, it’s only the weather. Have fun watching it. Hope some of us can make a snowman….

Fingers crossed for you Thunder Snow. Looking forward to reports from around the NW tomorrow and maybe Friday morning too. I’m sure some will be lucky, others not so. Snow shadow will be a real pain for some, being just too warm as well. Others (East and hilly) could hit the jackpot. The returning wrap around of cold air could give everyone a few cm’s overnight into Friday. Because today’s un-forecast dribs and drabs to the North of the frontal boundary have not resulted in Narnia has no impact on the next two days. Surely it was a bonus that most of us saw falling snow?

Cheers Chris. Still in the game is the main thing. Uncertainty and marginal, but sounds like we will at least get precipitation and be in with a shout. 150m, in a valley and tad north of Manchester here, all of which might tip the balance I guess.

Good news. I’m interviewing all day…can’t really be checking the models sadly!!

Hi Guys, Far too busy at work today to check the models. What’s being shown for Thursday and Friday? Has it continued to move south, or is our region (well, Manchester for me!) in the game still?