Maz

The 2nd chart, whilst admittedly too far into FI to look too much into, might show a route back to summer… Heat building near Iberia and pushing up to our near Continent to the east. The upper low over UK pushing southwards where it may become cut off near Biscay with the Atlantic high ridging above it. Allow for a bit of retrogression and heat returns to UK.

Very sticky, cloudy morning. On morning run onto Holcombe Moor the low cloud, drizzle and southerly breeze on top was very refreshing. Brighter looking south with bits of sun over Manchester. Hope cloud clears to give a bit of heat and sun, as it looks like that will be in short supply next week.

.....I can confirm that it is overcast other side of the Pennines where all that cloud is building up.

We move to GMT 2 months before winter solstice, and then back to BST 3 months after winter solstice. Changing back around 20th Feb, rather than 20th March would make sense. Daylight hours are just too short in mid-winter, whatever we do with the clocks can't escape that. GMT seems as good a trade off as any as it maximises light for children going to school and coming home.

That’s the run that results in warmest CET June on record. More influence from the Low Pressure, but W or SW and we end around 17c but below the record. If the Low pressure digs down and we get NW’ly for a few days at the month end, we just miss 17c. That’s the envelope for next week and will be fascinating seeing where June ends up.

Hi Markyo, As a “conventional” SAD sufferer I know where you are coming from. Winter Solstice for me is the darkest day, but also the start of there being a chink of light, a path to cling to. Sounds exactly the same for you in reverse. Keep going, it will get darker and cooler, just like it will then get lighter and warmer. We can’t stop the seasons so just need to make the best of them (unless we are able to re-locate for the season we struggle in of course, but that’s not an option for most).

Presumably means that from pretty much every direction the weather will be warmer than we might expect. Does it also mean that low pressure is more likely to form around UK and give high rainfall totals too? Maybe it is setting us up for a warm but increasingly wet summer (as per MetO long ranger) followed by a very wet and windy but also mild autumn?

Squelchy ground for my morning run around 6am. Mist over the fields with some sun poking through above. Big change on the last month! Been frequent, heavy showers from the SW for the last hour...reverting to type fort these parts, hope the settled weather makes a return soon.

…and 4th thunderstorm of the day. Hung to the SE for a while, then briefly directly overhead. Good lightning display!

Our 3rd thunderstorm of the day was a nice little cell. 3 thunderstorms is more than the sun total of many recent summers! 5 this summer now.

Rumbling to the south (over and to East of Manchester) for the last 15 mins. Gradually getting closer to SE Lancs. 3rd storm of the day incoming I think (2am, 6.30am earlier).

NNW is the direction for those being steered by nearer surface flow. NNE when they get tall and they are steered by upper flow. They should also move faster in the upper flow too. That is the “wind sheer”, as nicely described in one of the recent MetO videos, that can lead to continued development and large thunderstorms. Somewhere from a swathe from say central Wales to Cambridge and northward, could see such development, maybe NW England, we will see….

And that’s the wind shear, flow veering more W’ly as go higher. Hence the organised supercell prediction.

It’s clouded over here. The forecast looks cloudy with sunny spells and some showers for the next week. Not a write off by any means and will be very pleasant at times. But, Quite a change after the weather gods have spoilt us for the last month (well - I’ve enjoyed the last month massively anyway and would love more of it).

Shap, Cumbria has been near the top of all your sunshine tables so far....which is amazing! Tables will turn and it will revert to being at the bottom of the league, but what a spell of whether for NW areas.

Indeed, two days after that chart, with high drifting east and the low in the Atlantic acting as the pump, it would likely be very hot. Runs very consistent now on a big build of heat in SW Europe. Many also showing high building and drifting east with a cut off Atlantic low cranking the heat north ….too far out to have confidence, but all very reminiscent of the start of the run up to last July’s extremes. (actually two days later the LP and HP barely moved, hence hot,not scorching…the building blocks are in place though)

Shouldn’t say it with the agricultural issues, fire risk, environmental problems etc of no rain, but I’m loving this spell!! Mostly been sunny, warm with a nice breeze for a whole month, just the odd cloudy/cool morning in late May and couple of thundery days last weekend. Shorts, tee shirt, throw the windows open to keep the house reasonable, idyllic. SW’ly, damp, cloudy, humid, midgy etc will return, so I’m making the most of it.

Looks like another wonderful day across the whole country. Looking at WeatherObs, highest temps are either Fohn effect (stand up Porthmadog again, but also Gatwick from the North Downs, places south of the South Downs and in Cumbria) or urban heat island (London stations). Which will get the top spot today (I'm guessing a London station, it is just taking time for everything to heat up after a coolish start). Shallow convective cloud, spreading against a "cap", may interfere of course.

The MetO deep dive video linked earlier in the thread suggested the probabilities favoured an Atlantic influence, less above average temps than now and a traditional E-W split. Will that happen into next week, and if so will it only be temporary before high pressure builds back?

Apologies...I've corrected it!!

and Porthmadog (Wales) and Bridgefoot (Cumbria)

Looks like the pro’s are going for Bridgefoot, 1hr 4 mins earlier than Porthmadog to the 30c mark!!! Either way, fitting it is out West, given how this spell has gone the last few weeks.

If so, presumably has access to the real time records, rather than the on the hour data feed. Portmadoc and Bridgefoot might be fighing it out for the first 30c on 13th June. Agreed, the fohn effect is just adding a couple of degrees where topography is favourable. It is nice everywhere today by the looks of it.

On the desktop version, click the settings spoke and there is an option to exclude amateur stations, hence I'm assuming what is left is "official":

Close but no cigar... (its Porthmadoc for the record - fitting in this very E'ly dominated spell)