Maz

Yay!! I love a good cold, snowy spell, but what I really look for in the charts is the start of spring. Despite cloudy forecast it’s clear blue skies here. Can’t believe it. Sitting comfortably outside having lunch…have I fast forwarded past the dark days of SAD into spring?

2-3cm in Summerseat. 5cm or so up on Holcombe Hill. Enjoyed my early morning run. Crunch of fresh snow underfoot. Amazing amount of light reflected off the snow, even pre-dawn, no need for a torch.

Proper lake effect snow!! It’s been continuous all day and by the sounds of the reports on here it is giving some big totals, even right near the coast. In contrast just a few flakes of dandruff here, and this evenings fun looks to be just to the south…that’s how it goes sometimes!

First flakes of the season! Settling nicely. Very light shower, just a bit of dandruff.

Looking at the radar, Southern Cumbria has hit the jackpot today. The band of snow has just kept coming. @Slidergate '17 and @damianslaw and @Scuba stevedoing really well! The activity over Wales is approaching the more southern parts of the region. Will it intensify and give an interesting evening over Merseyside/Gtr Manchester/ Cheshire/S Lancashire. I can see the cloud approaching now, and certainly have fingers crossed. A real nowcast situation it seems. I'm sure some will get a good covering, and others, close by, nothing....'tis the way it goes!

Agreed!! Nice to see the NW regional thread buzzing with a potential snow event. Surface cold and injection of moisture with a weak Upper maritime flow is a good set up for our region.

The wind at mid to higher levels steers the front, the wind at the surface can be significantly different, especially during the passage of a front. So yes, the surface wind can be SE, but the front moving NE.

Always interested in your thoughts @Kasim Awan, you were spot on for last winters snowfalls in December and March. Irritatingly so when you predicted the March SE’ly rain shadow effect, AKA the Manchester snow shield! I’ve not looked in detail, but after a period of surface cold, I’m always looking for a change to a westerly flow (hopefully not too strong) to inject moisture and leave surface cold in place…that’s the idea this weekend, so I’m cautiously optimistic.

I’m afraid I am a Christmas grinch! Autistic and peak ‘SAD’ I really struggle through Christmas. Take the light away, then take my normal routine away, then force me to social/ family events and overwhelm me with noise etc. And then repeat for new year. Take the mickey if I look stressed or not enjoying myself too, that really helps. I’m better once back in the normal work routine in January and can ever so gradually spot the smallest signs of spring. Anyway, sunny and frosty this week is a real tonic. Sat outside for lunch every day!!! Snow would provide a magical transformation to the light, hoping we get some here at the weekend or early next week.

The ensemble mean is consistent across the two runs though and a much tighter spread at 12z suggesting more confidence on the milder trend. With the operational being the outlier on both it does suggest the higher resolution is picking up something the ensemble members are not seeing. That suggests, expect a turn to mild next week, but keep a watching brief.

Established surface cold, injection of moisture from a light onshore drift…that’s the most frequent ingredients for snow in southern parts of NW region…. Might be gone next run, but something to monitor.

Positive thinking got me to mid November, but SAD has really bitten since, with persistently dull weather. Tired, anxious, feeling trapped, disinterested etc. Yesterday and today a real bonus. Sitting in the sun now, wrapped up, but feeling some warmth. Really hoping the cold spell brings some sunny days. Snow is a bonus, transforms the light levels instantly. The dark days pass. It doesn’t really get any “worse” from now on in, well under a month to earliest sunset, then shortest day, and can then count upwards again. Those with SAD, just feeling the gloom of winter, or discussing the impacts of light levels/ day length, keep posting here. I find it really valuable reading about others experiences as I’m sure many others do. Hang in there, or for those with reverse SAD, enjoy!!!

Sunset reaching latest time (15th Dec), Shortest day (21st) and earliest sunrise (30th here I think) are all nice little milestones to cling to. Noticing a little light creeping in pre 7am and post 5pm are more tangible though and have to wait until late January. Speed of change picks up from then on…..

Lots of talk about ECM moving towards GFS. The ensembles are very different though. GFS op and a large number of ensemble members brings -5c 850s to London on 25th November and keeps that until 29th, with a gradual relaxation after. That’s the “clean Northerly” evolution. ECMWF, more scatter on 25th, but op and balance nearer 0c 850s. It is only on the 29th that -5c 850s (courtesy of a mid Atlantic block and NE’ly) reach London for 1 day. More variation day to day on ECM, suggesting “sliders” could be a feature. Certainly interesting model watching.

Week 2 of GMT. 4 days with no sun and lots of rain and heavy cloud cover really started pulling me down. Then yesterday and today both sunny, pleasant out of the light breeze. Sat outside both days in the sun, which is 100x better than any SAD lamp. Today’s solar “pair” is 31st January….only 10 weeks away!

Light steering wind, just a smudge to the north side of west and the north Merseyside/north Manchester/ SE Lancs streamer in full flow….what a waste!!!! Grim 9.5 times out of 10, but occasionally it piles in thunder snow (I can but dream!)

Interesting - the Irish Sea is small enough to cool down given a period of surface cold. However the wider North Atlantic is maybe slower to react. Meaning a Northerly flow that is diverted Westerly ahead of a small surface low, can give snow (like last December), but bog standard Westerly flows behind cold fronts in a “cold zonal” pattern are less likely to be the right side of marginal.

Spot on @Kasim Awan, the Westerly snow events that have delivered for Ramsbottom recently, at 150m ASL, with a few hills to the west, have all been with in situ surface cold that has remained in place due to a relatively light mid/upper westerly wind.

Sadly, the recent increase in sea temps has made that once reliable source, so, so, maginal now...in fact unless over 250m or so, the wrong side of marginal now most times....I'm sure the jackpot scenario still exists where the air is cold enough and the "lake effect" is enhanced by the sea temps. After a day like today (local flooding down by the river in Summerseat today), those that have copped the rain as a direct hit on the Western upslopes deserve an Arctic Wl'y jackpot....shame it doesn't work like that.

True, the first couple of weeks of November do give the bonus of a glimpse of pre-breakfast light to lift the spirit. 9am sunrise is pretty grim.

1st of the “dark” weeks ticked off. Actually was really fortunate with sunny periods coinciding with lunchtime all but Tuesday since the clocks changed. Made the most of it with a lunchtime walk and then eating outside. Darkness descending from 4pm onwards and long dark evenings make me feel claustrophobic, trapped and actually physically scared when the light starts dropping in the afternoon. I’ve got enough light during the days though, so SAD hasn’t taken a full grip yet. Reached 8th February in my mind game of “twins”…the first signs of spring will be so much more welcomed thanks to the contrast of the winter months.

Maybe it’s the light pollution reflecting off the snow. I’m on the edge of Manchester here. Don’t get much opportunity to find out these past winters though!

Yes, it is an oddity. Can’t help with an explanation. I’m sat outside comfortably having lunch now and enjoying a bit of heat from the sun. Whilst the air temperature may be colder on the “twin” day of 15th Feb, there will be the same brightness…in my mind each day forward before SAD hits is reducing the dark period.

I’m a SAD sufferer, so the clocks changing hangs over me, well, like a dark cloud! There is still enough light to stave off the physical symptom’s. So in my mind I pair each day now with the corresponding day before the spring equinox. 16th Feb is the equivalent in sun height/strength to today, so in my mind I’m limiting the dark period to 3 1/2 months, and shortening…. Clock change gives a couple of weeks or so of notably lighter mornings. Im an early bird, and always try to get outside first thing, so that’s positive and limits the darkness. Thanks to the clock change the latest sunrise is only 20mins or so later than now, so won’t get much worse really. 15th December and we get to the earliest sunset. That’s only about 7 weeks time, then momentum shifts and everything is moving the right way. Snowfall, or even thick frost, gives a magical boost in light, even if it’s cloudy, even at night if the moons out! So the hunt for snow eats up the dark period to. Then, sometime in February, I will stand outside, feel a bit of heat in the sun, and know it’s going to be Spring soon and I will rejuvenate just like nature…..

sorry, replied to wrong message - was meant to be a comment on @cheshire snow’s screen grab! Yep, very gusty wind. Interesting on the radar how a strip of lower intensity rainfall is opening up along western side of Pennines. It’s the same process as the “Manchester snow hole”, and it does happen with rain too. It won’t be fully dry, but precipitation will be reduced in the “downslope” areas. Of course much wetter up in the hills, and further West away from the hills. Foehn effects are interesting, unless they steal our snow!