Maz

Yes, classic foehn wind. One of my favourite weather features.

I’m finding today’s weather really interesting: Strong SE flows are not that common: Lee Winds - really gusty coming down the Pennines into NW England. Foehn Effect - air drying out as it descends from the hills. So it is sunny and warm (out of the wind at least) Stationary wave clouds. Today is the upside to the dreaded “snow shadow” effects when SE winds kill off Manchester’s snow!

Whilst the thread is about the severe weather and warnings, one impact of Babet is strong SE wind. Today this is bringing really gusty Lee winds to the west of the Pennines and a foehn effect, raising the temperatures. Also some tell tale stationary wave clouds (lenticular). Very pleasant here today in the sun and sheltered from the wind. Seems wrong to say that with Red/Amber warnings and those impacts. But from a weather watching perspective it is really interesting to me.

First frost of the season here. Thick on cars, grass, roofs etc. Nice! Early morning run. On such mornings the differences in temperature are very marked. Open areas (parks/ fields etc) notably colder than woodland. Also colder down by the Irwell, with mist coming off the water onto nearby fields.

Nice autumnal day. Long sunny periods with a few brief heavy showers.

Well, shorts and a light fleece over a t-shirt for al fresco lunch today. Really pleasant in the sun sheltered from the light breeze. Enjoyed the clear crisp morning too, perfect for a pre-dawn run. Clear northerly airstreams can be great for sunshine in the colder months. Generally they are too few and far between though. Wonder what this cold season will bring?

Rock solid on 4 days, from Saturday, below average 850s, and below by quite a margin. Most likely either sunny with below average nights and almost average days, or cloudy/foggy, with nights nearer average but days cooler. After that (Wednesday next week onwards) an interesting split. Most ensembles see a warming of the airmass (presumably high slipping into central Europe and a toned down version of the current pattern establishing). But a few, including both operational and control, remain cool (probably a Scandi high and easterly). The middle ground is "empty" on 20th October, so a half way house appears unlikely. Probability favours the resumption of a milder pattern (the Met Office suggests this), but there is obviously a chance of remaining cooler. I say cooler, as it is October, SSTs are high, the continent still warm, so it's not "winter".

Foggy start, cleared to lovely mist over the fields, and now sunny and warm, sitting out for lunch in shorts and t-shirt …will it be April 2024 before warm enough for shorts and t-shirt again?

uurghh, low cloud sheet sitting on the hills and bits of drizzle. Mild though. Glad the sunny days were at the weekend.

Another glorious day. After the low pressure dominated summer weekends, nice for the good weather to be at the weekend. Bank of cloud seems to be spreading from the W here, hopefully won’t last too long.

If come end of October, annual mean is very close to last year, I would have thought it’s 50/50 whether the record is broken. Last year had mild November and coldish December, so quite likely we would at least match those months. Given the massive difference between July and August last year and this, I would not have thought a record breaking year would even be possible. Just goes to show how persistent the warm anomalies have been. Even the “cool” Synoptics in July/August ended up around about average.

Glorious afternoon. Loads of ladybirds here too. Are they looking for somewhere to hibernate? Or has the warmth woken them up thinking it’s spring? The last couple of years have had similar ladybird days with isolated warmth in October. Not noticed it in earlier years, but I’m sure it’s always happened.

Frequent, heavy showers, barely any sun, very breezy here today, following up two really wet days with steady frontal rain...definitely autumn this end of the country. But it is mild, and there is the hope of a bit more sun over the weekend.

It's been the complete opposite here. Little sunshine and just one single digit foggy night. It's been mild, is the only positive, in terms of heating costs, being comfortable outside inbetween the rain etc. Oh well!

In NW England, since mid September it has been both a complete washout and unseasonably warm. Is that the middle ground you are after? Keeps down the heating costs anyway and does look like dry/warm weather will push further NW over the coming days.

Very accurate @damianslaw. Clocks back is the most significant day for me. Ushers in the ‘darkness’. 6th Feb is my birthday. I’m usually pretty low by then with SAD, but the creeping increase in daylight is very noticeable by then, the worst is behind.

If only..... Irish sea rain making machine in full operation for Manchester area. 100% cover of low cloud, frequent heavy showers, about 12c looking at local weather stations. It's been a really wet week in these parts. Incidently, polar maritime NW flows like this used to be a winter snow maker for Pennine areas, even down to low altitudes. A stark indication of the warming over the last 20 years has been such synoptics now invariably give rain/sleet/graupal, but only snow on the highest tops. The Irish sea has warmed, so modifies the airflow at the surface to a greater degree now. Wet instead of white is the result.

I think that is this mornings (00z) run. The afternoon run (12z) holds the low pressure to the NW - the first chart in @Mark wheeler ‘s post above. Shows there is considerable uncertainty…autumn could be delayed!

I can confirm that it's properly wet on the Western side of the Pennines. One of those grim days with orographic rain that never clears. Low cloud sitting on the hilltops adding to the gloomy feel. ....please let the euro high ridge far enough NW next week to give respite.

Wet start here too. Thanks to the overcast skies, it was pretty much fully dark for the first time this autumn, on my early walk (around 6am). Surprisingly it has just brightened up, was expecting it to be cloudy all day.

My morning walks have been edging back a little as the darker mornings mean I'm often not awake so early. Just clinging to some light when I am out around 6am or so. Won't be long until it's fully dark though. Just after the clocks change, I might get a glint of light, otherwise its the long slog through to mid February when pre-dawn light returns. Nowhere near as long as your "dark" portion of the year, and nowhere near as cold - although in my books 3c, windy and raining feels a lot colder than -5c, dry, calm and frosty. Lancashire gets more of the wet, windy type of cold!

The Icelandic low certainly appears as if it will have much less impact than previously appeared the case. Biscay/Portugal low option very much on the table too it appears. Even the GFS, with the tight low to the west of Ireland, doesn't throw it over UK. Interesting model viewing it has to be said. Continued bites at S/SE flow into UK, albiet a lot wetter and not as hot as last week, certainly being toyed with by the models. Perhaps more so than the prolonged troughing that seemed prominent in yesterdays runs. ...more runs needed!!

Hi Markyo, I’m not a fan of autumn due to the descent in daylight and slow onset of SAD. However, shallow misty mornings are a feature of autumn I really appreciate. Oddly, this year, such early mornings have been frequent through summer with the exception of June. Even the last week has dawned with shallow field mist in the river valley most mornings.

Misty over the fields near the Irwell first thing. Felt strange as it was so mild and sticky. Reading in here seems dew points are near 20c, so not much cooling needed to get a bit of mist. Scorching now. Personally would love another week of this, but the progress of the seasons doesn’t stop. Darkness is gathering. For the first time I really struggled to see in the wooded areas on my morning run.

The tropical storm in the Atlantic is further east and a little north on the MetO chart. Which has the knock-on effect of pumping the euro high which means, despite a strengthening jet to the north, the low is also further north. Where do we go after that. Another heat pump, or does the jet, a few weeks later into autumn than when the current pattern initated, have the ommpf to flatten the pattern. Of course there are plenty of other options for Lee. Dissipating, heading north to re-invigorate the jet, to name but two. Fascinating model watching.