Maz

So, close on 60mm rain this weekend so far in SE Lancs, and maybe 12+ hours rain to come. No SE flow unlike early March, so no “hole”. Had a drenched early morning run, the Irwell was running very high. The radar suggests we have been on the southern fringe of the band all day, but it has not stopped. Truely grim in any season, but seems even more so in mid-Summer.

The Hovmoller chart does offer some limited hope. The strong low pressure at 0 degrees dissipates from 30th July. The high pressure signal to our west gets a bit closer. Yes, there is then a blip with a couple of days with low pressure at 0 degrees again early August. Signal then weakens, but some indication of higher pressure. The ECM anomalies for early August are more neutral (no shading) rather than low pressure. So, I think still a signal of a move to average August weather. That would be a whole lot better than now.

Agreed. We moan about the weather on here, but for farmers the weather impacts their livelihoods.

Friday - Tuesday were really poor here. Yesterday and so far today nice enough. Feels more like a nice day in spring / autumn though when it is hot in the sun, but a bit chilly when cloudy. Farmer on fields close by is literally living by the adage of making hay whilst the sun shines. Yesterday mowing, today baling. Presumably the resulting hay will have a high moisture content, which I guess is not ideal. But with the forecast for the next week, two dry days (bar any afternoon showers today) had to be taken advantage of!

1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970 all with colder July than June....strange quirk of statistics

Round 1 of notable inclement weather was Friday to today in NW areas. Two washout days, 3 days of frequent heavy downpours (and some thunder), 3 very windy days, mid teen highs throughout and just the odd bit of sunshine. Does look slightly better the next couple of days, then downhill again if those charts come off. Grim for mid-summer. Talk about paying for 6 weeks of brilliant weather May/June.

Friday and Tuesday complete washouts, and plenty of showers Saturday, Sunday and Monday (with a bit of sun at times), very windy too Friday to Sunday. Thats a poor return for October, dire for right in the middle of the warmest weeks of the year on average.

I'm just starting to get the hang of the hovmoller plots. Seems to show that the current pattern has been very stable. Trough (Canada) - Ridge (Mid Atlantic) - Trough (just to our west) - Ridge (to our east). Over the next few days the ridge to our East appears to erode allowing our Trough to move right to 0 degrees (over us?). That correlates with the weekend and early next week "wash-out" charts. Around 1st August the mid-Atlantic ridging gets closer to 0 degrees (suggesting it will be to our near West), with a trough to our near east. That suggests a drying out period, but with a NW wind, so just average temps. After that the signal seems to get too weak and no pattern can be discerned really.

Upper low and cool air across Canada in close proximity to the Upper high and “heat dome” in USA. The differential charges up the jet stream which feeds our trough and in turn locks in heat to S Europe. A persistent pattern. In a year of persistent patterns. When will it switch, or will it just merge into a changeable Autumn? I hope not.

Thanks Sean. I commented in May and June when you showed these that Shap being in the top handful would be an aberation that would not last. It is 2nd dullest for July so far, which must be more normal. The whole table is almost completely switched around from late May/ early June in fact. July is a far more typical order I would think, although not exactly brilliant anywhere.

Pretty poor showing for mid-summer. However it’s better than yesterday. Managed to sit out for an hour for lunch (in a fleece even in the sun as I’ve little shelter from the SW wind here). Then a nice little thunderstorm rushed through with a few rumbles and 10mins of torrential rain.

Yes. Growing up in what we’re cooler times in 70s/80s my gauge is: 20-24c - nice average summer day 25-28c - normal hot summer day 29c+ - very hot/ heatwave If I still lived in London where I grew up, I’m sure those “standards” would be a degree or so upwards. Having moved to NW England it’s still spot on.

Been a pretty decent day in SE Lancs today. In fact, despite being very wet and breezy at times all week, there have been sunny interludes most days. Hence not a write off. Does not need much in July to make it very pleasant. In some ways hotter than average, settled spells, give most value in April, May, September and October as it extends the comfortable “outside” part of the year if you see what I mean.

I’m up early each morning and the last 2 weeks have seen a heavy dew most mornings and some mornings shallow riverside mist on prone fields. More due to lots of rain and a damp atmosphere than any dawn coolness though. Actually, plenty of dew and mist in April and May too. The interlude of summer like mornings was all too brief (although could return still).

It’s a bit grim looking at 10 day outlook. Next 4 weeks are statistically the warmest of the year…low pressure dominated westerly , or even NW, really is a waste. Just like a SW’ly set up is a waste of the corresponding Jan/early Feb period. Here’s hoping for an upturn in early August just in time for family holiday in Yorkshire. The current pattern really does look stuck but surely summer will have a last hurrah?

….and here is the thunder! 4th storm this weekend - more than most recent summers in total, but it’s only the 3rd most thundery weekend of this summer!

Been a really nice day so far. Sitting outside and relaxing. Don’t need a heatwave to give pleasant weather May to September. Rapidly darkening skies now…NW England has been thunderstorm alley this summer. Expecting a few rumbles here again soon…

Some warm sunshine to sit in earlier and 3 thunderstorms since. Nothing too intense but a day full of interest.

@MattH and others with knowledge of AAM: Is the basic principle that the stronger the easterly flow in equatorial regions the more friction there is to impede the westerly flow at Northern hemisphere mid latitudes? i.e. strong AAM -> weak flow/meridional patterns for Northern hemisphere mid latitudes. Weak AAM -> strong westerly zonal flow at Northern hemishere mid latitudes. The location and strength of differing flows in the tropics is then mapped to how that interacts with the mid-latitude jet (especially around the big mountain ranges - Himilayas and Rockies) to try and predict where the mid-latitude ridges and troughs will be. ....or am I just completely mis-understanding?

Thunderstorms appear to give you the same relief in summer as snow does to me in winter. Dingy grey suddenly replaced by bright white as if by magic. Before I understood SAD I used to go hill walking, climbing and skiing in the snowy Highlands/Snowdonia/Lake District as many weekends as possible. It was the “drug” that got me through. Can’t do it with work/ family etc now though. Maybe you need to take up caving in summer?!!

Hi there, I suffer from SAD, so on the face of it find it hard to empathise with someone looking forward to the dark days. However reading your and others posts on here I’ve come to understand. Also, I’m autistic, with heightened sensory perception for light. I always wear sunglasses and a peaked cap April - September and often beyond. Despite that I love bright days. However, once the light deficit really kicks in (December) I really struggle to keep functioning for a few weeks. Anyway, was posting as it’s the first non overcast evening where I’ve noticed the light dipping earlier. No big thing, months for me when light levels are perfectly adequate. Still, something I always note, and always brings that bit of dread to the back of my mind.

Early morning run onto Holcombe Moor: - Rain - Wind - Cool …did I miss a few months and wake on 1st October? Wind blown vertically driven rain, stinging the eyes and numbing the legs is not my idea of July!! Hopefully the afternoon will pick up and some sun breaks through. It is high summer, so even if the air temp is mid teens, would be pleasant in the sun….

Yes, there does seem to be a growing trend for jet stream weakening, the trough backing west and dropping south with ridging over the top of the trough and also to our SE. Indeed a plausible route to the patterns advertised in the seasonal models. I've not looked to see whether there is ensemble support for it though?

Agreed. The "road map" was just my wording. I've been looking at the models for the last week or so and trying to see if there are trends that might lead to the situation seasonal forecasts and some of the teleconnection posters on here are suggesting (trough to SW, blocking waxing and waning over us/ to the east, with settled weather -> plume -> warm unsettled -> settled type pattern). Some day 10 runs are showing the synoptics I mentioned, with a weakening jet, which logically lead to the progression I outlined. The jet could stay stronger than usual for mid-summer and a continuing progressive westerly pattern, with the continental high ridging in at times further south. That is also shown in many FI model runs. That is also very plausible if the temperature differentials in the States remain charging up the jet out of Newfoundland and towards us. As many others on the thread have said, mid-July does appear to be an interesting cross-roads which could set the rest of summer either progressive Westerly or more meridional once again like late spring/early summer.

What’s the road map out of the unsettled spell? To me the above charts show one that has been teased a number of times. The long lasting low sinks south to our west. Pulls up warm but unstable southerly. Then the ridge behind (in mid Atlantic on the charts) topples in behind settling things down. If the jet weakens end of next week, as the MetO 10 day indicated yesterday, that seems a realistic progression. The outcome would be High pressure to NW or over us, presumably drifting east and low pressure to our SW. That fits the seasonal predictions. Hence appears something to watch in the outer reaches of the runs to see if it becomes a trend or not.