Maz

The synoptics today are pretty similar to those posted in the thread on Sunday, with ESE flow....and NW England is doing well temperature wise. As I suspected, NW Wales is doing even better with RAF Valley (Anglesey) top of the "league table" at the moment it seems. I'm sure other W and SW areas with a bit of high ground to the E are also faring well. It's interesting when local topography combines with the synoptics to give local differences, although less welcome to me when a moist W'ly flow results in murk on the Pennine upslope where I am and sunshine in rain-shadow areas!

Brightened up nicely from around 15.30, really pleasant out for the last couple of hours. Just goes to show we are into the period of the year (May - September) when there is no need for a heatwave for it to feel nice, just average with a bit of sunshine is all it takes. It’s just a shame the rest of the weekend could not manage that here.

Been a really poor BH weekend here. Initial promise with sun breaking through the clag on Friday evening after 6pm, then again around Saturday lunchtime. It was even briefly warm. Then on and off light showers and cloudy Saturday afternoon, rain on and off from 9am onwards yesterday. I guess today is an improvement, dry so far, but cloudy, so not very inspiring. The Easter weekend was really good (3 out of 4 days sunny), can’t win them all!

If that set up were to happen, Manchester would be in a favourable location for warmest temperatures with a gentle foehn effect from the Peak District. There are normally 2 or 3 days a year when that happens, no other synoptic leaves Manchester the warmest in UK! Coastal NW Wales could get a smidge warmer though, with higher hills so a stronger foehn effect - maybe to close to the low pressure though so not getting sunshine. Anyway, all academic, the exact Synoptics will differ so many days out.

Lucky you!!! Still cloudy and cool up in Lancashire, the sky is a lighter shade of grey though and the murk has lifted from the hills....sun is going to break through and spring is going to start when I clock off in a bit for the long weekend! Actually the forecast looks cloudy with showers throughout, but with mild temperatures. I can but hope though.

Yep, agreed. Thanks for the link too. Interesting looking at the monthly averages. NW England is much wetter than SE England in January and September (30mm difference) but much closer in April (5mm difference). That accords to my experience that there are more instances of HP to N or NE of UK in April, hence more Easterly and Northerly winds, and in NW England that tends to mean dryer than average. January and September far more W'ly/SW'ly and wetter in NW England, but in SE the "rain-shadow" effect and being nearer continental high, means it's dryer. This April has been a more extreme version of that pattern. It's just unfortunate that this year, even in NW England, it's not given any warmth, although often it does in April and clearly has in NW Scotland this year.

Thanks Al. That is definitely a turning upside down of the usual situation, which does show those in the SE in both relative and absolute terms have experienced a worse April than elsewhere. It's not been great in NW England, but hasn't been that bad either (a bit cool with no real warm days, but quite dry).

Agreed regarding % anomoly. How do absolute values compare though? The average will be much lower in SE England than in N England and especially N Scotland. Perhaps in absolute terms rainfall has been fairly similar NW -> SE, which is unusual in itself? For those in the SE the same level of rainfall will feel like a much wetter spell than those in N England/ N Scotland whose normal level of rainfall is higher.

After a rainy morning it’s been mostly cloudy since, but brighter with some hazy sun and looks like some shower clouds around. Pretty much as forecast, but does feel much milder than I expected as I’m sheltered from the wind here and the moister, higher dew point air feels milder than the dryer air last week. Sounds like quite a lot of variation around the region with the southern areas seeing much better than that, but wet still further north.

That seems to match the Atlantic trough, Euro high pattern @Tamara indicated the wider teleconnections support going into May and early summer. The ECM mean posted earlier in the thread is also similar. It was interesting that the longer term models showed similar for mid-late April, but as we have seen the HP drifted northwards, leading to the easterly and then cooler Northerly. I see Tamara and others have associated this to the SSW/ final warming. As we move into May this imprint should decrease, perhaps giving greater confidence in a warm(er) spell this time. Tamara did mention the waxing and waning of the wave pattern, to me indicating settled -> plume -> NW/SE split etc etc. Not a bad late spring/early summer position for us (but probably heatwave/drought for further south in W Europe)

Yes, rain is a tad further south than forecast. Clinging onto some sun here, it is windy though. Would have been a big disappointment in winter if it was a front from the SE coming into frigid air. It is not just in winter precipitation can be mid-forecast, especially coming from less typical directions.

The "cloudy" high a distant memory now, with this the 3rd of 3 mainly sunny days after several days of grey stratus. Need to make the most of it - just looked at the Met Office forecast for my location. 7 days from tomorrow, max temps mostly below 10c (for 5 days after just reaching 12c on Friday and Saturday), lots of cloud, plenty of rain and barely any sun.

Yesterday was really nice. Sadly mostly cloudy today and cool in the breeze. It is nice in the sun in the odd break in the cloud. Overall it’s not a great spring day, but could be worse (as we might well find out by the weekend).

Finally the high pressure is delivering sun! Lovely out today, but need to get out of the nagging easterly breeze. Trying to be positive about the forecast Northerly. If it brings clear arctic air and it is sunny, it might not be so bad. Might bring some impressive convection cloudscapes too. If the end of the week and weekend have a lot of cloud and drizzle/rain from NE though, that could be really grim.

Sun just come out here, 19.10….and here’s what you could have won….. Fingers crossed for a better day tomorrow.

Still a stubborn grey sheet here. Fairly mild, but a waste of high pressure and relatively high upper air temps. If the sun had broken through it would have quickly become very pleasant. Alas, it hasn't! Forecasting breaking up of high cloud seems to be very difficult for models. I guess there is a quick feedback loop if the sun does start to break through, ground temps rise, that warms the air, dew point rises and cloud breaks further and the layer of trapped moisture quickly dissipates. However if the key point to start that feedback loop is not reached, it stays grey (like today, and yesterday....). A very small difference at T0 ends up having massive differences later in the day. Clearly the cloud broke up in Kinlochewe, NW Scotland, where 20c was reached today. Don't begrudge them at all, they get rain by the bucket load up there!

Please let the sheet of grey break today...has the potential to feel really pleasant if it does. Mid teens, sun and no wind is almost perfect in my book. On the other hand, the sheet of stratus is just depressing!

Plenty of sunshine? You are only the other side of Scout Moor to me, and it’s been grey all day here!

Really disappointing weekend. Started so promisingly with blue skies until around 11am on Saturday. Stratus then invaded, and a few glimpses Saturday afternoon aside, have not seen the sun here since. In April the difference between Cloudy and Sunny is enormous. Cloudy sees the chill of winter lingering but when the sun’s out, it is as strong as late August, so it’s immediately warm. I’m really hoping the Pennines can do us a favour this week and NW England gets some “lee of high ground” sunshine. The hills were like the Himalayas when it came to killing of snow in early March, surely they can break up a bit of North Sea stratus?

As there are no posts this morning, thought I would quickly scan the GFS and see if the build in pressure and temperature from Saturday is still showing: Pressure build seems extremely likely with very little scatter showing for Lancashire next week. 850s Temperature also a strong signal. Albeit a bit of scatter. The scatter seems to correlate with the chance for the HP to be East or even NE with time, which might advect some cooler air around the “bottom”. All in all, looks pretty good for the week from Saturday/ Sunday Just need to get through 5 or 6 very unsettled looking days first. (I see I was beaten to the first post, which fortunately agrees with mine!)

….last week of May. Will probably be a washout!!

Been really lucky with UK family holiday’s this year. Just back from 6 sunny days/ 1 rain day out of a week in southern Peak District. Feeling the heat in the sun, even if air a little cool, has been wonderful. Our February half term was a week behind many, and also got lucky with a sunny and relatively mild week in Suffolk. Wonderful day back home today too. Trying to ignore next week’s forecast! April often brings slow moving low pressure though. Often followed by building heights and a slow moving high pressure. Fingers crossed for the later!

As I mentioned yesterday - low pressure dominated for UK, but not zonal. It is just that the HP over Scandi is too far NE and the Azores too far SW. A cool, wet, block. If it fills in situ, there seems a good chance of pressure rise to N of the LP connecting the two HP areas…and it’s then a good situation if springlike weather is wanted.

CWB - Cold Wet Block. A semi-blocked set up with blocking highs in the “wrong” place for UK leaving us a slow moving low pressure. I’m guessing HP to S maybe end up being stronger with the LP tending weaker and further NW. The positive must be that once that pulse of energy dissipates we get an Azores- Scandi high link up, which would make for a more than pleasant 2nd half of April.

I've no idea what it is. Maybe it should be "Cold Wet Block". When blocking is evident but all it does is trap a trough in one place giving days of miserable weather. That's a pattern the UK is good at!!