Nick B

I suspect that might be feet, not meters!

Hi John and good morning, I noticed on p. 27, dealing with North Atlantic sea-surface temperature, the following... 'NAO prediction based on this factor alone: +0.5'. That seems an interesting statement to make; it seems they take the NAO state which they are expecting for the next three months based entirely from one factor (and that with a seemingly not very strong signal too): current North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. Am I interpreting this correctly? (- I was!!) If so, what is it about this particular signal that means it gets to be the only one worth considering? (- now irrelevant, they don't). Also, p. 31 seems to paint a different picture using a hindcast method? (still interested in what the charts there show...). Slightly (less) confused by this one (now!)...

Apparently, in the graph showing the correlation, the years with the weakest correlation are those where there is a significant change in the ENSO state. So this would appear to be something worth keeping an eye on over the next month or two. As far as I'm aware it's not expected to change much in this timeframe from the very weak state?

Think I'd bank that for my new location in central/west part of Germany... Somewhere between -16 and -18 uppers. Actually not that unusual here in recent times.

These are beautiful pictures with very subtle shading of colours against the backdrop of stars, both very nicely captured. I hope you get to see many more auroras.

Ok, that was genuinely funny.

Was out walking in the snowstorm yesterday evening in NYC, heavy blowing powder snow, crunchy under foot. One problem; they are too damn efficient clearing it away in mid-Manhattan! Looking out of the hotel window this morning it's as though we had maybe an inch or so instead of ten. Coming home tonight and it would be nice if I could bring it with me...

Currently in NYC, they have interesting upgrades here. Gone from a forecast when I arrived (on Saturday evening) of basically dry... to snow flurries... to maybe one to three inches... now expecting an event which will impact travel - mid teens F, up to a foot of snow between today and midday tomorrow, tomorrow morning temps only a few degrees above 0 F. Due to start within a few hours. Supposed to fly back tomorrow evening, not sure that's gonna go to plan.

Hi Recretos, any trophospheric forcing which plays a role in the behaviour of the stratosphere seems fair game to me. We have of course assigned names to the different levels of the atmosphere, but nature doesn't do this. Yes, these levels behave in different ways, but the interplay between them is fascinating, as is the bewildering array of factors governing the behaviour. I am sure I speak for many when I say your judgment, as well as chiono's, in highlighting and discussing these interplays is much appreciated. Just keep going!

To be fair, Scotland does have an awful lot of heat, compared to absolute zero.

Hmm, obviously the Met Office need to be considering a serious warning to the South East specifically for anyone with a gazebo or marquee for this batch of warnings, because gusts up to 50mph could certainly cause their owners significant problems. COBRA are probably meeting about this right now.

I have to say, I now view the CFS outputs with a degree or two of scepticism. Although I agree that single runs are worthless and it's better to interpret trends over a long period, when those runs show these blocking highs for many weeks ahead on successive occasions e.g. for late November and then nothing happens, then they do so again for early December and guess what? - nothing, then again for later December (you get the picture), I begin to question whether there is a bias towards those scenarios in the current scripting. Certain LRF's which don't scream cold for the first part of winter seem at the moment to be doing alright.

As JM has pointed out on his Facebook page above, "Haters make us famous". At the risk of being ironic in writing this in the first place, surely he is thriving on the bad publicity as well as the good? Why not restrict comment on his articles to the level of constructive criticism they deserve? Perhaps something along the lines of "Yet more endless streams of cr*p from JM"... or no comment at all. Credit where it's due, he has chosen his outlet well, a paper that is dumb enough to pay good money to an outside party for baseless and sensationalistic headline-grabbing fiction. It has to be said it seems both parties collude together in the knowledge that since it's a prediction of the weather, they can both claim there is a possibility that the event could come about, while knowing full well that the real chance of three months of such non-stop severe winter weather is vanishingly slim, even in the most snow and ice prone locations. Obviously this particular paper is comfortably relying on a gullible and non-critical readership, perhaps who have been buying the paper for so long they wouldn't feel comfortable changing anyway. So they can claim they're quoting from a professional independent source, they're paying someone who will happily give them the headlines they require, with scant regard paid to scientific basis to underpin the so-called forecasts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25032329 from BBC web site New island forming 620 miles south of Tokyo.

Heads up to an excellent post in the Strat thread just now by Tamara, which may lend some credence to the idea that the type of synoptics we've been seeing in the last 24 hours just may be longer lasting into the winter.

Here's mine... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wAjpMP5eyo

With quite a phenomenal GH at the end, just for interest. One of many, many possible perturbations showing, of which of course none will be exactly correct, but fun to see.

They can't usually pin it down to a specific date. The snow drifts and non-stop blizzards prevent them from getting to the coast that easily.

You'd want a bit better than that. No more than 2 max with perhaps -6 uppers, and then dewpoints below 0 and decent precipitation as well. If it's too light, even with those figures, it won't be snow. Patience

Perhaps your view is not the accepted norm? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe

For anyone, if it gets very bad, it could make for dangerous driving conditions, due to cross winds on motorways and also particularly due to trees falling on vehicles; the statistics for deaths in previous years show a number of lives were claimed in this way. It's particularly hazardous for any high-sided vehicles, of course. One problem is, many lorry drivers are, shall we say, strongly encouraged to make their deadlines, so they will often attempt to keep going even when it's past the point when they would stop if they took a moment to consider it rationally. I've seen this in Milton Keynes in 2010 shortly before Christmas (I think it was) when about 9 inches of snow came down within 3 hours. The lorries tried to keep going and many ended up jack-knifing and blocking roads because they just didn't stand a chance of coping with the conditions (roundabouts and slight inclines mixed with compacted snow). Plenty of CMG rescue vehicles then added into the mix trying to reach them! I imagine a fair few miles of motorway (for instance M25 western section, M1, M11, M5, M6 and any other N-S stretches where high-sided vehicles would be at risk from strong gusts in a W-E side wind) could certainly be at a standstill if the forecasts at the extreme end of the scale are realised. I am fortunate enough to be able to work from home if absolutely necessary and will be checking before I set out.

I must agree with this too, given the activity that is kicking off may well have some bearing on how things pan out as we move towards the wintry months (and I'll include November in that just in case). I don't know how easy it is to copy across some of the specialist and very helpful and informative posts by the likes of Chio, Recretos, snowking, Interitus, SM and a few others (those who read this thread know who I mean!) for this season 2013/14, but that would be a good start so that we have a good base of info for the current set-up moving onwards. Keep up this great work!

The last major cyclone was in 1999, named Odisha... this one may retain its strength and be just as damaging. The storm surge on that occasion was 8m and swept up to 20km inland in some places where the ground is uniform and low lying. Absolutely devastating. At least if the authorities set up an exclusion zone and got people even to walk inland to higher ground a great number could be saved. It may now be rather late for some. I know cyclones change course erratically sometimes but there's no sign of that happening when you look at the satellite time lapse on this. After a weaker period it looks to be generally gathering strength in stages at the moment and heading on curve taking it NW on a path somewhere between Brahmapur (pop. 355,000 plus) and Srikakuram (population 155,000 plus). If it swings on a course more to the west (following the eye on the hourly satellite snapshots, this seems to be the case, though slowing down in forward motion a little), then a major population centre, Visakhapatnam, with over 2 million inhabitants is potentially in the firing line. At least here the surroundings seem to be more hilly, allowing people to take refuge from a surge on higher ground, nevertheless that's an awful lot of people, so unless the storm weakens then statistically it's looking to be quite a concern. Trouble is, where cyclones such as this one meet hillier terrain, although they weaken in wind strength they do dump an awful lot of rain in very little time enhancing the flood risk to people living within the valleys on higher ground. Although it is interesting to see weather models and satellite photos, some can be worrying and I think this storm falls into that category. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Odisha_cyclone

My girlfriend saw (what we think may have been) a falcon swoop down and take out a pigeon at fairly low level in our back garden a few months ago. Apparently it smashed into it at a rate of knots and there was something of a feather explosion. I managed to get some footage of it a few minutes later, feeding on the remains, but it was at some distance. Gardens aren't necessarily peaceful places!

From BBC report: Scientists from the UK, US and North Korea have joined forces to monitor the volcano responsible for one of the largest eruptions in history. The volcano straddles the border between North Korea and China, and has been largely dormant since erupting a little over a thousand years ago. Despite being at the top of the list of big eruptions, Mount Paektu remains obscure and enigmatic. Details of the collaborative effort have been outlined in Science journal. The international group of geologists has begun working on the volcano following a spate of recent earthquake activity that could indicate it is waking from slumber... Around two thirds of the volcano lies in North Korea, with the remainder is in Chinese territory, and an estimated 30,000 tourists visit its Chinese flank each day, around twice the number visiting Mount Fuji in Japan. In 940 AD, the volcano exploded in a huge eruption, known as the "millennium eruption" that threw ash vast distances. Measurements of ash deposits from that eruption measured in Japan indicate that this was one of the two largest known volcanic eruptions on Earth since that period, matched only by the Tambora eruption in Indonesia, in 1815 AD. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23981001