Nick B

A very clear if slightly fragmented squall line showing up on the rainfall radar at the moment, stretching from Eastern Scotland down to Cornwall. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

I can tell you, for last winter, for the mainland, we must have been contenders in our part of Northamptonshire. At the most, only about 3.5 cm of lying snow at any time.

Fascinating and fantastic footage... http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15835014

Not at all for my money, I'm afraid. Many building blocks in place but those DAM values are rather high. Also, that's not significant northern blocking compared to what we saw last year, by any stretch of the imagination. I wonder what were the 850's were like under it? I guess probably not good enough for lowland snow, though possibly might happen above 400-600m.

It doesn't necessarily mean much, actually, in that it is rather vague about the coming month or so, and seems rather speculative. It talks about the fact that the profile in terms of Sea Surface Temperatures alone would support a Greenland block setting up (and that it could happen quite quickly); for us in the UK this then increases the likelihood substantially of our weather arriving from the East and North East, however, it's only one factor. We would only really benefit if we could tap into a nice cold pool. Joe B had some good forecasts, but as seasoned posters here wil tell you, he's had his busts in the past too. Has he perhaps over-hyped this time? I found the reduced strength La Nina interesting, because it contradicts what I had previously read, which was that were were back in moderate La Nina ENSO conditions. How might it affect our winter if now weakening already? - not sure...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wheres-winter-changes-in-the-f/58114 Well, Accuweather had a few interesting points about La Nina and the Greenland High with respect to SST's over the coming winter...

http://articles.merc...ve-hazards.aspx Interesting and worth a read... Also, personally speaking, I'm not only interested in living a long(ish) life. I'd prefer it to be in generally good, rather than poor health while I'm living it. So I don't have such a carefree attitude towards what I choose to eat.

A well presented and very useful forecast - thanks Backtrack! Anything remotely close to being frosty on past Bonfire nights is going to be remembered as cold, since it often involves being stood around outside without moving much. The same also applies if the humidity is up a little. I'll take cloudy, slightly breezy and chance of a light shower as a green light for this year, at least for the East Midlands. Sorry for those on the south coast if it's wet, but hopefully many of you may dodge the showers (unless things change in the outlook). Have fun and play safely now, everyone.

Though I'm nearly 6' 2", I've never been blown over. So, I'm not sure...

Much as I would like a cold snowy winter, for aesthetic reasons anyway, I'm still only attributing the early leaf change and fall to dry conditions since the spring (i.e. reactive, not predictive). I've not seen anything unusual in the charts so far to indicate particular cold, and wintry showers on peaks at this time of year are also not unusual.

A damn good analysis as always by GP. In other words, if I read correctly, strong possibilty of a general warm-up going from 7-10 days onward, drawing warmer air from the south (possibly may mean some imported plumes given recent occurences?).

Hmm, here in Northamptonshire missed most of the action in the winter, and all the action is just east of us again...

How about this one? http://lynn_mills.tr...ning/index.html Some interesting ideas in this I think... though it does date back to 1997. I imagine that the reason for the lack of static build-up is down to the structure of the clouds in terms of net areas of condensation and evaporation not being marked enough, therefore meaning the potential difference doesn't build to sufficient levels to cause more than the odd discharge occasionally, if you accept the premise of the above writing.

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/05/06/overuse-of-gm-crops-becoming-a-serious-problem.aspx I know some people like to discredit Mercola. I prefer not to go down the route of ad hominem attacks and look at the evidence he's collecting and presenting. Sometimes it's quite overpowering...

I think those that are tinkered with to be Round-Up ready (resistant to the famous brand of weedkiller) are potentially quite dangerous...

Hmmm... no offense meant personally (no, really!), but 'unthinkable' is surely a bit over the top?! Unthinkable would be having one's clifftop house washed away by a flash flood and losing one's family. Unthinkable is not, repeat not, the idea of a couple of milder months of weather in a winter which will now stand out as having a notably cold and snowy beginning overall. Actually we are only half way through and no-one knows how it may end. So I think a sense of proportion and perspective could be injected... It's only the weather, interesting and diverting to predict, obviously can have major consequences but we can't change it anyway.

Some beautiful photos. Two bone-chilling winters in a row... wow. I'm sure there may be a few Netweather folk who would be interested in a guided tour in your plane! Fantastic...

Actually, when you look at the last couple slides for the Pacific, the increase in area of cold seems to have risen quite dramatically. The Atlantic's area of cold is also growing, it seems...

Careful, you'll jinx it!

Virtually impossible... since the old London Bridge was removed and the river became much more free-flowing. I suppose you could get a layer of ice at the edges, but would you want to walk on it knowing what's underneath?!

Sounds entirely reasonable to me. I'd go with that as an explanation.

But that's the point - you have just made the comparison yourself. The jet has been shifted further south on balance and this is affecting synoptics. In previous years (pre-2008), a storm such as this coming Thursday's would be travelling a more northern path still and dragging in yet warmer air from Biscay. I've certainly seen enough over the last 2 or 3 years now to accept that we're heading back into pre-80's synoptic patterns and, on the whole, when we get the storms, they won't necessarily deliver mild conditions, just average.

If it's such an issue for Scotland why shouldn't they make their own changes and leave the rest of GB out of it? Let them have their own time zone!

1. At some point in the earth's future it will return to an ice age state, but... 2. Much evidence? Of course there is - loads! But for what? That's the problem we have... We're getting very good at collecting data, however, not so good at knowing what it in fact is evidence for. Good scientists used to be the ones who when asked a question by the media and politicians, might respond, "It's too early to say..." because they recognised that it's important not to jump to snap conclusions when you are dealing with complex issues. We have a long way to go in understanding these issues before we can claim any science is 'settled', for instance. 3. I've put 'Stays the same', because the time frame was not defined in this poll. Maybe I should have put warming, because at some point in a few billion years, when the sun has grown in diameter, the earth will find itself dragged in and consumed, so that will definitely show a warming trend at that point... If 50-100 years was meant, I think probably cooling. If 100-300 years, probably warming. Who knows after that? Will the human population then be 30 billion or maybe just 1/2 billion?