Solar Cycles
-
Posts
1,148 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Solar Cycles
-
-
Actually, I've seen many, many attempts to use that as an argument, as well as similarly ridiculous "arguments" that are taken as gospel by some just because the conclusion from them varies between "AGW is seriously overestimated" and "AGW is a myth, a scam, a means of overthrowing free market capitalism".
...and the flaw is that it's not a case of whether or not the sun influences our climate (it clearly does) but whether or not the sun's influence has changed significantly over the last 100 years. Plus, solar influence says nothing about the existence of CO2 as a greenhouse gas- again we get around to talking "how much of it is CO2, how much of it is other anthropogenic forcings, how much of it is natural cycles" instead of simplistic stances like "it's all CO2" or "it's the Sun what did it, stupid!".
The argument being dismissed, btw, is not "the sun provides 99% of our heat, therefore the sun affects our climate", it's "the sun provides 99% of our heat, therefore the impact of GHGs is negligible". (Well, if we wanted to be pedantic, it is negligible, but only in the sense that with no Sun, the Earth would cease to operate, compared with which even a warming of 10-15C would appear negligible).
But by the same token TWS, you could argue that, yes Co2 is a greenhouse gas, but how can you proclaim that it is responsible for the warming we have endured? We are all working on assumptions, not one side has conclusive proof, as it not?
-
Just going of what is being shown on the ECM chart, of course these will chop and change, but as it stands it looks dry for us! Personally I feel late next week we will see snow, but that's a long way out!Sorry, don't accept that at all. It is too early to be so specific sbout snowfall. People need to go back to the things they were saying in this thread during the last two cold spells. The amount of times I read people stating that the NW would not get snow was just silly. I had 8 inches before Christmas and a foot in January. The ECM could easily bring snow to the northwest, just because you see high pressure does not mean it won't snow.
-
Ian is spot on, the ecm shows most northern and western areas of the uk, around 60% of the BI to be dominated by high pressure according to the ECM 12z and to be honest, the ecm run will probably turn out most accurate but longer term it migh improve up north if the hp retrogresses but that is far from certain, it might just sit across the north for 2 weeks.
I agree, if the ECM was to verify, then Ian's assessment is spot on!
-
If your hoping for snow next week, don't look at the ECM!
-
Steady on, it's a fantastic looking chart, but Feb 47! Lets hope the GFS is right, as this would make it a nationwide event, with all areas seeing snow at times!One word to describe tonights GFS...mental.
Shades of Feb 47' there surely?
-
It's not a case of giving up, that's how things look at the moment. Like I stated, still time for more drama!You sound like you are writing it of before its even started, common this is the Northwest we don't give up.
-
At this moment in time, I can't see the NW being in the firing line of any snow. The High Pressure is too close, that needs to be further North for us. But it's still a few days away, so plenty of time for more drama!
-
Looks like it's time to hibernate away from the model discussion thread now An Easterly is on the cards. All that SE bias grates me after a while, let's hope the GFS and UKMO are nearer the mark for next week, then the rest of the country can join in with the fun and games!
-
You have to hand it to the GFS, the Easterly was spotted by the GFS nearly 2 weeks ago, ok it's had it's wobbles and we have all had our doubt's, but it has got there in the end, so fair play to the GFS.
Agree, it gets it's fair share of stick, but it did predict the last cold spell well in advance also. We will soon find out if it's the leader of the pack!
-
I read on a site yesterday that if the polar shift is quick enough, it could cause the earth to become unstable along with the atmosphere, allowing the sun to become too hot for the earth to be inhabitable?
Ive been worried since i read it, even though it's due in 2012.
How true is this?
I was under the impression that polar shifts don't just happen overnight?
-
My sentiments too TWS. With the way the models have been performing as of late, I won't be getting to carried away just yet! Fantastic looking charts all the same!I'd like to preach a bit of caution here. It's easy to think that all of this is going to verify, since we've had some similar outputs come to approximate fruition earlier in the season, but I've seen similar setups to this go pear shaped at around T+96 before. I think it now looks very unlikely that we won't see some kind of cold spell in the coming week, but how cold and, more especially, how snowy is still subject to change.
If we're still seeing similar outputs to this tomorrow evening, cross-operational agreement and good ensemble agreement, then I will consider it close to being nailed on for a renewed spell of cold bright snowy weather. But today, the models are only just latching onto the pattern and I can't help but feel some of the excitement is premature.
-
Well I certainly feel we will come under 10c, so with that in mind I'm going for a rather chilly 9.25c.
Let's just hope those figures don't get manipulated, to show that the globe is still warming hey!
-
Hi guys,
Left Leyland about 4.30 yesterday - v wet snow just starting to settle, and the more I got down the M55 the more it had settled - like I was heading away from the sea not towards it!
Re the next cold spell (assuming it arrives) there's a lot of 'it'll be great for the east' going on on the model output thread, which I can understand looking at the models, but hopefully the NW will get some surprises in there too like last time.
Still lot's to firm up on for next weeks shot of cold! As it stands, Eastern areas would do very well out of this, but we only have to look at the last cold spell, to see how things can change at such short notice.
-
Assuming they haven't broken any laws, is just and fine. Seeing the efforts of some folk to obtain the information as being at best a nuisance, at worse justification for ignoring or blocking the requests as they're from reknowned sceptics; isn't any more fair minded than those making accusations of law breaking.
That's the subjective part and the one which could run and run in ever decreasing circles here. We don't know, we won't know until after the enquiry.
Totally agree Jethro, I'm staying out of this debate until after the enquiry.
-
NOGAPS is looking good.
Some cracking charts there, they have a 78/79 look about them!
-
We've had some cracking cold spells already this winter with the news full of people getting caught out in deep snow, i don't get all this it wont come off and that GFS needs to get its credibility back it did very well in forecasting that epic first half of January and even in the last two less cold weeks places are seeing snow as in the north today.
This isn't your typical post 88/89 british winter its like the 80`s ones.
Wasn't they like the 80's ones also?
Edit, must read all of post before commenting!
-
Heavy snow here, some of the flakes are huge, looks like the gods are throwing snowballs!
-
Light snow here now, can't see low lying areas getting 2-5cm tbh!
-
Will it, won't it, will it, won't it! Amazing model watching, this is better than any whodunnit novel! I still maintain, that we will have to wait until at least Saturday, before we get cross model agreement for next week!
-
I think the Met Office get way to much stick on here. If most of the posters on here had given a forecast for the coming weeks then it would have changed on a daily basis from, very cold and snowy to mild and south westerlies.
Reality is that the ground in the middle is likely to be the outcome.
If you are constantly looking for extreme weather you are, for the most part, going to be constantly disappointed. The people I feel for are the ones who can not decipher the models for themselves and then hang on the words of the posters. This must drive them to distraction.
The models have struggled and continue to struggle with this mild air cold air battle. I don't think that this has been resolved although as time goes by I would put it at advantage mild.
Off topic I know, but I'll defend the MetO when it comes to their short/medium forecasts. Also they can't be judged on their forecast yet, it may well prove to be right!
-
So much scatter amongst each model run at the moment, I feel it's better to wait until weekend, to see how things firm up for next week. I've never seen so much chopping and changing!!
-
So let's get this right... you often (quite correctly) point out that there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding AGW, but on the other hand, insist that it is definitely being overestimated? Uncertainty therefore certainty? In two words: "confirmation bias".
I don't think current conditions over the Northern Hemisphere would support anything with quite the same severity as 1963/1947, but there's nothing in the near term to stop something not far short of it from happening.
Chill TWS, you really need to read between the lines sometimes. It was a tongue in cheek reply, I have stated many times before, that I feel that AGW is being overestimated. Off course there is no way of proving that, just as there is no way of proving it isn't!
-
I don't think we will see another 1947/1963 in our lifetimes, unless either AGW is being seriously overestimated or we get a big decline in solar activity leading to cooling. I think it's highly probable that such winters will recur in the future- probably many thousands of years away though.
However, this winter shows that it can still get very cold and snowy despite the slight warming over the globe in the last century.
The Health and Safety issues stem from the philosophy that health, safety, work & economy is all that matters and everything else is disposable (so it's always deemed inappropriate to compromise health & safety in the name of preserving something pleasurable, even if we're talking negligible amounts of risk) plus various authoritarian lines on how only "hard" blanket proihibition approaches succeed at stopping the minority from abusing things. Fail to conform to those principles, and as soon as someone gets hurt, in with the "no win no fee". If we want to avoid situations like the arguments for banning snowballs/sledging in schools being extended to nationwide, as a nation we need to rethink our priorities.
I think we probably would struggle in a 1947 or 1963 repeat, because we don't have the infrastructure to use snowploughs widely and we were running out of grit for many of the roads, so we would really struggle after a while.
Well your right on your first point, it is!
-
Light/moderate snow shower here, leaving a dusting!
North West Cold Spell Discussion:
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted