[Better Than The Models ?]

Interesting thread, I remember seeing the first three or four posts but as I am not on NW all that often, I missed all these more recent discussions.

First thing I should mention, a fairly detailed explanation of my theories and methodology can be found here on NW in the advanced learning forum.I will link to them here, but to save you a lot of reading, I am going to mention briefly the foundation of the theory in this post, so you might want to hold off going on that side trip to these links until possibly you find yourself with an hour to spare.

http://forum.netweat...r-theory-intro/

and if that arouses any interest, there is a second thread that builds on that introduction, that was active for a while two or three years ago.

http://forum.netweat...atology-report/

Am newish to this forum so this is the first time I've come across your theories. I have just read the first link you posted and found it all fascinating, and will read through the second thread when I have more time to digest it. Most interesting indeed!

[Worst Weather Event you Have Experienced?]

For me the worst weather experience was being caught out in a nasty thunderstorm. I had travelled a couple of train stops to an evening doctor's appointment and whilst in the waiting room heard the rumbles of thunder approaching. It had been one of those humid summer days with thunder in the offing. As is often the case, my appointment was running late, and I sat and sat whilst other patients shuffled in and out, meanwhile the storm was getting closer and closer. I thought perhaps it would pass by before I'd been seen. Eventually I was the last person to be called into the surgery. After being seen I came out and the surgery was preparing to close up. The storm by now was almost overhead. I dreaded having to walk to the station, which was about a quarter of a mile away. I don't like thunderstorms at the best of times and if I'd had any chance of doing so I'd have loitered in the doctor's till it had passed, but as they were closing up I had no choice but to go out.

Emerging from the surgery I cowered and jogged my way towards the train station, feeling terrified, the lightning now pretty much too close for comfort as the storm reached its peak. I got to the station and... unfortunately had to cross the tracks to get to the right platform, and that entailed going up an open flight of metal steps, across a metal bridge, then down to the other platform! I really couldn't imagine anything I'd less like to do at that point. I waited near the bottom of the steps until there was a bright flash of lightning followed by a crack of thunder, and immediately ran up the stairs, over the top and down the other side, sheltering under a perspex seating area that was still open to the front. I cowered in the corner as the storm raged and I had to wait 20 minutes for my return train to show up! I'll never forget that experience.

[RJS Weather Theory (intro)]

Have just read through your first post Roger and this is all very interesting stuff, even if most of it is still quite sketchily described to begin with. I am no climate/meteorology guru by any means, but have always believed that all systems must interconnect on this planet and outwards to others beyond. We are not in a bubble but affected by our satellite the Moon, the Sun and even the other planets in the solar system. What you're describing sounds like a more 'holistic' view of meteorology. I will certainly be following any future posts you make in order to better understand what your system entails.

[The Midlands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 20]

No snow in West Malvern! Just jolly cold at 1.4 C and with a chilly NEly wind.

Edit: Looking out north-facing window, can see a line of cloud approaching, must be the small area I can see on the radar north of here.

[Better Than The Models ?]

Barbmac (#93): I really don’t feel brave at all. It is what I suppose I “signed up to†when I embarked on this journey. I have to call it as I see it (as I said in the video).

If I am wrong, so be it – it was a precise and detailed forecast based upon clear principles and knowledge that I have sweated to get over the last 22 years; it is no “stab in the dark†just for the sake of predicting something shocking for the goal of attention seeking.

If I am right, it wouldn’t surprise me; its business as usual, loads more work to do to build up the track record.

If you did do it purely as an attention-seeking device then most likely any forecast would fall flat on its face and you'd be discredited pretty quickly, and have had your 15 minutes of fame! However, it was your prediction of the November low pressure that caught my attention, and I think you called that one pretty well, even if sceptically thinking it might be possible to be 'lucky' with an educated guess as some said on your other forum. As you say, you need to build up a track record, and that is going to take some time. But good luck to you!

You've probably mentioned the answer to this somewhere else but are you just forecasting around the Europe/GB area or do you look world-wide? Or would that be just way too much work? :wacko:

[Better Than The Models ?]

That's one hell of a forecast, MB, and you're brave to put it 'out there' for everyone to see. I would hope that if the charts do begin to shape up as you've outlined then the Met Office would issue warnings in time for people to evacuate if they're in danger areas. And hopefully the Thames flood barrier would do its job, even so, that's a nasty storm. I hope those living on the Continent would have similar precautions. When you spoke of a rare event I was hoping for something a little gentler! :blink:

I'm following this discussion with interest but really I don't see why someone couldn't come up with a new method of interpreting or forecasting weather charts.

Totally agree with this sentiment! I've an open mind to new ways of forecasting until they're proved to be on the wrong track, so I'm watching this thread with interest.

The weather is demonstrably 'chaotic'.

This does not mean it is random; it means it exhibits three properties; it is non-linear, it is sensitive to initial conditions, and most of all it is deterministic. Being chaotic, doesn't not make it less predictable. Indeed, a huge amount of chaotic systems decompose to attractors which make their behaviour highly predictable - which is why the pendulum system is used to tell the time! - and even if they don't they usually yield to some analytical technique or another - Poincare maps come instantly to mind.

Yes 'chaotic' can be taken incorrectly to mean 'random'. Where is Charlie Eppes (Numbers) when you need him? B)

[Better Than The Models ?]

New forecast

<snip>

However, the work on the 12 Nov and 25 Dec forecasts (and my normal day to day work) has meant that I have overlooked something major (which I identified back in the summer) and I will post today a new forecast of a very rare event in weather terms.

Hello MurcieBoy

I am intrigued by your attempts at forecasting and look forward to your next (even more so if it's a rare event)! Might I suggest that if you have uncertainties such as you had over the high pressure, that you indicate that in your forecast, for example, you said:

The isobars across the UK will be relatively closely packed, with pressure ranging from about 1010mb in the north of Scotland to about 1040mb in the south western tip of Cornwall. London will have a pressure of around 1035mb

re the pressure for London on the same historic day in the past, two very respected and well known sources gave two different pressure levels, one gave 1045mb and the other 1040mb (unfortunately I took the higher and my forecasted level was further out!)

You could in your forecast say you predict a pressure of 1040 mb ±5mb for London, then give the reason for your margin of error as a note below so people know why you have that level of uncertainty. Just a suggestion, helps make your forecasts that bit more scientific and also help to combat the doubting Thomases!

As to my thoughts on long term forecasting, I am doubtful that the same patterns will repeat going ever further (or for that matter back) into the future (or past), or if they do, then there must be some larger (or more accurately longer) cycles/rhythms in force that would alter their effect and so reflect climate change. All incredibly interesting though! I wish we had more detailed weather data going further back!

[Report & Pictures/video Chase Day 23]

Hi everyone, this is my first post although I've been lurking for about a year! Just have to say this year's storm chasing has been incredible, am really enjoying watching the online stream or catching up with the pictures - awesome shots, guys. Just watched the OK hailstorm clip on YouTube, ended up watching a few more there! Unbelievable - have only ever seen hail of about 1 cm diameter, that was in Australia.

Anyway just wanted to say well done to the team and good luck for more exciting and safe storm chases!