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    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm back from my expedition up Cleeve Hill! All went successfully.

    I decided to go first via Aggs Hill, to the three masts on Cleeve Common. Cycling up that steep hill was hard work, because I was roasting in all my winter gear! The precipitation began to turn wintry at about 700ft, but it was more like icy rain. When I got up to the top of the hill, it was snowing with a bitter and fierce wind - the flakes were more like needles hitting the side of my face. It can't have been snowing long; either that or it had only just started to settle since there was only a slushy covering on the ground. A woman I said "You must be mad!" as I walked past, pushing my bike, in the snow, across to Cleeve Hill village. I agreed.

    The snow soon began to close in and visibility greatly reduced to about 300m. It was pretty heavy and I think the conditions could be described as "blizzard-like". On the way back down, the snow line had evidently dropped quite considerably, since there was wet snow falling as low down as the De La Bere hotel. However it reduced to sleet by Prestbury and rain with a touch of wintriness when I reached town.

    I will see if the video clips I took are worthy of uploading; if they are, I will post them on here. smile.gif

    I'm glad I'm not the only crazy person out there. I used to live in Hewlett Road, Cheltenham, in the late 1970's and used to do exactly what you did today. Used to take my bike up Aggs Hill, past the Reservoir and up to he top and along the road to the Masts. Amazing how it would be raining in Cheltenham and a blizzard on the top with drifting.

    Look forward to seeing any video clips.

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Rain with sleet here now...Hope it all comes south again soon, SLOWLY would be good!

    Still snowing lightly here. About an inch of slushy stuff on the ground. Had to go out to top of Stroud an hour ago - very bad up there with cars slithering down from Bisley with snow really packed onto them. You were right about the size of the flakes. I've been snow watching for probably more years than most and those really were the biggest I've ever seen - yes they were proabably about 2 inches across and it's the first time I've ever seen rectangular snow ie 2 inches by 1 inch.

    My brother in the Forest of Dean is reporting about 2 inches on the graound.

    Wish that was teh case here mate.

    Just rain at the moment, apparntly its snowing near robinswood / matson.

    I dont like the way the PPN is dying off on the radar.

    Just asw e get a chance, the rain is gonna run out on us.

    I think you're gonna have to move if you want to see any snow!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    You said in an earlier post that you used to live in Chippy - I'm an ex-chippy too, small world eh.

    Before I get my wrists slapped (yup, MODS get told off too) it's currently drizzling here and up to 2.7 whistling.gif Oh joy.

    Thanks for the posts Ian, very informative as always. Can I ask, from a meteorological viewpoint, why is the transition to snow so often on a line with the M4? Topography?

    Thanks Jethro, I don't think it's off topic to say that I left Chippy School in 1963 - the year of the great snow which lasted several months. Roads blocked for weeks on end, cars buried - I remember looking to see if anybody was trapped in them - don't think we'll ever get anything like that again! All this fuss today about a flake or two. Most people on this forum have never lived!

    ...and the temperature has now fallen here to 2.8 with continued light sleet.

    Peter

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A little note to stress that the snow risk for upland Glos (especially) is reflected by the UKMO FLASH warning (valid to 1800hrs) for good reason. The transient snowfall reliably reported thus far to the BBC from various people in the Forest of Dean, some parts of Cotswolds and indeed further afield (e.g., near Radstock, B&NES) is a precursor to this second frontal zone / PPN swathe now moving northwards.

    This 2nd one (well modelled late yesterday by the NAE) will prove somewhat more vigorous, with marked vorticity advection up aloft, imbedded instability and advancing against (and over) the increasing easterly undercut.

    It's in recognition of this feature and its potential that the FLASH remains active for Glos. Notably, the NAE and high-res models remain keen - even after the earlier more widespread rain - to call for around 10-15cm snow potential in lowland Wales, West Midlands, Forest of Dean, Cotswolds and some other areas north of the M4.

    Given the already knife-edge scenario for PPN discrimination effectively Bristol northwards (e.g., sleet / soft hail reported fairly recently in some S. Glos districts), it would not take much in terms of heavier PPN to drop the WBFL suffiently to introduce snow at lower levels.

    HOWEVER, as repeatedly expressed yesterday, for many (most) this will continue as a rain event.

    Attached the latest NAE output for the WBFL progression this afternoon and idea of wintry/rain PPN discrimination - note how this becomes more widespread into the afternoon, for reasons mentioned above.

    It's about as good as we can offer short of nowcasting and our Chief Forecaster (and fab scientist) presently at UKMO Ops Centre - Bob Wilderspin - really does know his stuff when it comes to modelling / forecasting snowfall... indeed his (co-authored) methodology is now widely used there to modify raw PPN signal in NAE output. So let's see how things develop.... it's a fascinating set-up.

    Ian, we really are so lucky to have your imput on this forum! Many thanks for such an articulate, measured and informative account!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm on Slad Road, town end, and the ppn keeps alternating between rain/sleet. A touch colder and I reckon Rodborough/Minchinhampton will have loads later. Still knife edge here but I've got a quiet confidence we'll see at least something later. Good luck!

    Oh, not worried by it being very wet - couple years ago we had 6 hours heavy rain, then 1 hour snow that gave an inch!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    RIght - It is currently 0.2C here up in the cotswolds

    We need the fronts on the radar to converge and mix... The latest models show the front stalling further SOuth. As the front from the SW approaches - is will 'suck in' the cold air from the North - As these meet they will produce a massive gradient and this will bring the snow level down to sea level - this however will be a very small line (50 miles or so thick)

    Whereabouts in the Cotswolds are you? I'm in Stroud and the temperature is 1.9C

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm staying at a friends in bath ATM; tried walking up the hill to his flat and when I stopped and stood still I started sliding backwards lol. The walls of houses and gardens have a 1cm layer of ice coating them. It's rediculously icy out there.

    As I said earlier, this type of event used to be quite common in the 1960's and 70's where I grew up in the North Coswolds with everything coated in ice and the trees creaking and groaning under the weight and crackling in the wind. Also quite lethal when it started to melt. But I've not seen anything like this for many. many years so something may well be happening to our climate. unknw.gif

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thank you Pete! Great to hear such a story!

    Problem is Pete, im no expert but people in the model thread kept relating to 63' when talking about this cold spell.

    If you go in the modle output thread, you will find its started again with regards for the Fantasy Island charts for new year!

    Happy Christmas Pete.

    Well, if it is like '63 you'll never forget it. The worst thing I remember about it was the cold which was relentless. Here I go again.... I forgot to mention the freezing rain. Every time mild air tried to come up from the SW the rain froze onto everything, the trees, cars, telegraph wires, and with a strong SE wind you could here continual crackling as all the ice creaked and groaned.

    I've NEVER seen freezing rain like that, since.

    Happy Christmas to you too and keep your snow dreams alive!

    Pete

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ok I'll have a go. I well understand your frustration but I've long given up any hope of a return to the sort of winters we had 20 or 30 years ago as there does seem to have been a general warming winter trend so I'm happy to accept what comes now, and we do sometimes get a surprise fall of snow which was not predicted until the last minute.

    I'm lucky to have been at school in the north cotswolds in 1963 and I've never seen anything to match that winter since. We had lying snow for three months, drifts up to the bedroom windows and telegraph wires and for weeks on end I was able to walk down the main road over the roofs of buried cars, which I would scrape the snow away from to see if anyonwe was trapped inside. The hot water bottles froze in our beds and one morning I awoke with a snowdrift in the room and onto the bed. We had no heating in the bedrooms of course and each time another blizzard arrived we put blankets up against the windows to stop the fine snow blowing in.

    Fine snow accumulated in the loft space, which came throught the ceiling when it melted and of course the pipes burst.

    We had drifts of snow still under the hedgerows in May and I remember writing in my diary that even I was getting a bit fed up with the cold and snow.

    I'm sorry if this makes you even more unhappy but I feel myself lucky to have experienced this and I feel we should perhaps accept that the winter climate has changed somewhat, especially in the south west, though we can still expect a few extremes.

    I'm hoping that the next cold spell will bring a battleground to the south west with a major blizzard - we are long overdue one - though with the warming climate we shouldn't hold our breath!

    I hope you get something you like in the near future!

    Pete

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Still a steady moderate very wet snow here in Stroud but not a hope of it settling. I've just returned home from a visit to a school friend in Northants. Wow! what a winter wonderland! Four inches of frozen crunchy snow with freezing fog thrown in for good measure. I hurried home as I the forecast was for freezing rain but we have wet snow which I prefer.

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    As a boy in the North cotswolds i was told by many a farmer that when snow sat in little hollows and on north facing slopes, after a slow thaw that had been over a few days, that it was "waiting for more". The point being that cold is difficult to shift once it has been in place for a while. This looks like a similar situation. 25 years ago we would have expected to have got another cold spell. Over recent winters we have got used to mild and on the whole uneventfull winters. The models certainly would suggest that the cold air is never to far away and indeed Scotland may not lose it at all.

    I would add that although i have looked at this thread for many years and my ability to evaluate what may happen is improving, i am in awe how some on here are able to spot trends that could happen that are more than aweek away. That is why i love this thread, not because i want to know what will happen in the next 24 hours but what will happen down the line. If it is not correct then i will never get fustrated and ask why it never snowed in my back garden.

    I agree entirely. I was also a boy in the North Cotswolds and know the expression "It's waiting for more" and more did indeed, usually arrive. I am also in awe of these model discussions. Even though I don't understand much of the background detail, I get the thread and read every single reply. I'm sure I'm beginning to understand some of the detail as time goes on and I certainly seem to have a good grasp of what weather is on the way. I really must congratulate all these excellent "posters" in this, my favourite thread!

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