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shaky

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    Model Output Discussion - heading into April

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Not true... I think there should be more balance in here, and maybe I’m being hypocritical. Unfavourable output doesn’t seem to be posted in here, it does look to turn cooler around 2nd, detail still uncertain with precip I think there will be showers, models don’t tend to pick up well on.

    And once again the gfs backs down from any meaningfull rainfall on the 12z!!dry spell continues into far fi land!!!ukmo 12z looks good as well!!

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    Model Output Discussion - heading into April

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The GFS 06Z run is massive wet outlier for the Midlands suggesting its over doing the depth and longevity of the trough.. 

     

     

    gfs-birmingham-gb-525n-2.jpeg

    What is making the gfs do this!!its getting really hard to even follow this model anymore!!!there use to be a time even if it was an outlier at least the outlier use to come true once in a blue moon!!!i mean now it just flaps around!!ecm is true king its right more than 70 percent of the time!!then ukmo!!!by the way gfs control much better as is the mean!!

    Model Output Discussion - heading into April

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    UKMO, ICON and GFS all similar @ T144 with high pressure relaxing its grip to north east and a trough starting to influence the UK. Certainly looks at though any break down won't go out with any spectacular bang, there's no plume and no sharpness to the trough currently, would be more of a whimper than a bang. Still looks pretty straightforward to say they'll be no further rain across most of the south this month. +

    EDIT - GFS going down any interesting route around the T200 mark, the cut forms and anchors to the south west drawing a warmer feed from the south east - me likey!!

    Honestly the output is brilliant!!that cut off low is yummy!!pulls in even more warmth and extends the current dry and warm spell!!!northerly cancelled out again!!

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - heading into April

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    With AAM looking to cycle around neutral, its likely that the Azores High will try to focus more west of the UK at times in June.

    If that coincides with a spell of negative AO then something like the GFS 00z could happen - but the model tends to be way too enthusiastic with that in the 8–16 day range, so it’s persistent flag waving for such a thing doesn’t mean a lot to me. I consider it a 20% probability for 1st half June.

    At the other end of the scale, lows by Iberia can allow high pressure to extend east relatively weakly while focused to our west. This can produce very warm but sometimes unstable weather. I’d give that about a 40% chance. Perhaps our best chance of appreciable rainfall!

    The other 40% goes to high pressure close to the west with lows over Scandinavia southward. Cool or chilly nights, days cool in north but pleasantly warm in south. Scattered showers possible whenever cool air moves across aloft.


    To be clear - that’s one part of the June story, during the low part of the AAM cycle. The high part brings other possibilities - highs through S UK / C Europe, that sort of thing. 

    Another day another set of very food model runs!!!temps in the mid 20s and sunny all the way!!also that northerly keeps being pushed  back on the gfs each and every time!!whats with the gfs having this northerly fetish?ecm has hardly shown any northerly and so far is proving to be correct!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - heading into April

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Yes I know I said I was done for the day, but I don't think the boredom / alcohol thing with lockdown has been researched properly...hic!  

    ICON 18z T120 v 12z at T126:

    image.thumb.jpg.48128d5b3c11b4eee0bb32782892c6aa.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.01ca2b690a19509175cb8a2eb8255393.jpg

    Trough feature digging in deeper here, so more likely (based on having watched other runs) that the cut off low scenario actually happens....we will see....

    Upgrade to me on the latest 18z!!trough digs much further south!!!heights slightly further west!!

    • Like 1
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