[Model Output Discussion - heading into April]

Any upgrades on the 12z peeps?!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

1 minute ago, Don said:

That concerns me slightly, especially with it being the UKMO backing off.

But then again the ukmo was further east on yesterdays 00z run but then backed west slightly on the 12z so lets hope its does the same today!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Such a beauty to look at!!its a plume of cold air travelling around the high from scandi and a direct hit for us!looking for upgrades on 12z!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will this bring Mr Murr back.

Brilliant for a washer streamer as well i think!!very cold at 126 hours!whats the 850 temps looking like mate!!looks better than ukmo at the same time thats for sure!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

The ECM does redeem itself late on and does have some ensemble support.

What does seem interesting is the ecm seems an outlier in terms of pressure days 7 to 9!so we could have that more easterly flow back on the 12zs!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A big streamer setting up for you on the precipitation charts.

Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes some very heavy showers breaking out quite widely, a lot in Scotland but  even in Central England at this time of year but because of the time of year, the snow wouldn't take long to melt so ideally you want some sort of a wave to form on the boundary of airmasses and then that would give potential for a few hours of very heavy snow on the Northern flank

 

Feb how is it looking between 120 and 168 hours on gfs and ecm!!still looking good for a cold north essterly or has the high toppled too far east as usual?

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Very cold 18z up to 192 hours!!colder than 12z!!surely snow showers from the north sea between 120 and 168 hours!!better late than never lol!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

13 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

They mentioned it on the BBC news weather.

My favourite is the JMA.. It's a snow making machine.

Absolute beauty!!!!if the gfs ensembles are anything to go by including the control run then might see further upgrades by the 00zs!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Gota give it to gem here!was really going for the blocking last couple of days and now ukmo ecm and gfs have joined the party!could still change though!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Is that ukmo or ecm?if its ukmo how does ecm look at 144 hours steve?

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

More madness from the GEM, and yes, that's -12c uppers into Southern England!

 

 

Scary thing is ukmo looks remarkably similar at 144 hours!gfs could be playing catch up still in regards to the blocking to the north west!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Ukmo 12z!!!not only got cold continental air coming in from.the east but at 144 hours look at that blocking to the northwest with incoming cold air from the north east!!looks better than gfs dare i say!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Given the latest ICON is even flatter than its earlier run it would be a surprise of the GFS didn’t continue its backtrack on its 12hrs run .

 

Im waiting for your update saying we have got the full house now!!!shameful from the gfs thats all i can say!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Gfs backed down in the end then?didnt really see that coming this time!!maybe a middle ground not a full climb down!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Wow!!what a chart at 120 hours!!surely ecm backs down tomorrow!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets see what the 18z Brings up however a quick analysis between the 00z ENS & the 12z ENS shows much colder trending indicated by the increase in frequency of the dark blues for London > The key here being the -8c line!

Looks like spring is on hold-

18z holding firm at 96 hours!!not backing ecm at all!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS + UKMO tonight on the same page usually means curtains for the often progressive ECM 12z

Can we get enough cold backing west > Not sure yet but cold & frosty could be good especially as that means dry!

Still opportunities from the Northerly though with the -8c line lurking close....

Ecm diverts as early as 96 hours but is it right?the gfs op is actually a mild outlier in terms of 850 temps for next week!!didnt see that one coming!!!if gfs sticks to its guns then i expect ecm to fall in line by tomorrow!!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS Direction of Travel yesterdays 18z Vs todays 12Z

Yup and you can see that low at 48 hours now slightly further south and starting to crawl towards ecm and ukmo 00z runs!!gota say thats a massive change and i wonder whats causing it?

[North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards]

35 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I am afraid the WRF has now dropped the snow risk completely. I knew  it was too good to be true.

Has it gone further north or further south?

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Homing in on a Northerly ( possibly weak ) by the end of the week

Steve you gota give it to the ukmo in regards to the what it was showing yesterday between 96 and 120 hours!!got it spot on!!gfs and ecm were flatter!!gfs now looks completely different!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM taking the more southerly route with the low on weds night / Thurs morn with some snow on its norther edge, still one to watch ...

Cant believe the ukmo trumped ecm at just 96 hours in regards to that mid week low!!ecm and gfs did not really have that low crossing southern counties where as ukmo did!!well done to the ukmo!!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely little sister sledge with some WAA on the 18z.

Is that a ramp for coldies?

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS now has the shortwave running east .

Quite a climb down considering this is within T72 hrs .

 

I did mention it earlier i think ecm and gfs will climb down and go towards the ukmo this evening!!i dont know what it is but ukmo has had this knack of outperforming both those models recently especially earlier on!!