Blizzardo
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Posts posted by Blizzardo
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12 o'clock radar showing snow for Ireland and should be moving our way later
and heres how the BBC see things at 5 o'clock but I think the showers might be a little ahead of schedule already
I'd agree with that, the showers are at least an hour ahead of that graphic.
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Thats some quite potent shower activity heading towards Western Scotland just now. With a bit of luck a few places could get some decent snow later this afternoon and into this evening.
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Still snowing off and on here but only really amounting to a slushy covering especially on grass, roofs and cars. 1.6c/0.7c.
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Another snow shower passing through. Still not lying but the temperature is down to 1.8c and dewpoint at 0.9c. Looks like a nice covering on the hills.
There should be plenty of shower activity moving in from the west as we move through today.
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Some wet snow here this morning which is a bit more than I expected and should be a positive sign for the rest of the day. Temperature 2.3c and dewpoint 1.2c.
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Had some quite heavy snow there for around an hour. Temperature dropped from 3.9c/2.2c to 1.4c/0.4c. Big flakes swirling around in a gusty wind as it passed through. Has left a covering of snow although it's slushy on the road.
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I've just driven over the Crow Road at the Campsies and its snowing at its highest points which I think are just over 300m.
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There's a bit of a warmer sector passing through. It wouldn't take much for it to turn to sleet/snow.Well I really thought I'd get snow because of the height here but nooo noo MORE BLOODY RAIN!
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As others have said that's a really positive UKMO run this morning and its the one model (maybe JMA as well) that's been solid this week. I love the 144 hours chart that would bring heavy snow showers to many parts of the UK, with absolutely no marginality about it. However thats a long way out given that things still aren't really settled at 96 hours.
Another positive is that it's pretty nailed on now that it will be getting colder next week week and there will be snow chances for some, although some models (GFS/ECM) ensure that it will most definately be marginal for most of next week and as its stands I'd say the wrong side of marginal for low ground (lasting snow cover).
There's quite a few elements and how they interact that will determine how cold it will be. I'm watching four things:-
1. The strength of the PV moving off Northern Canada into the Atlantic
2. The position and angle of the Azores high
3. The path of the low pressure systems moving across the UK midweek
4. The strength of the blocking high pressure to the the North East and North of the UK
There is a big range at the moment on how things could go next week from a bit of a damp squib with chilly winds and a some sleet for low level areas right through to bands of heavy, prolonged snowfall then deep cold. My preference is the latter.
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It's been a long time coming but it looks as though winter may finally be on the way. There has been a good trend towards colder and snowy conditions over the last couple of days and if this firms up over the weekend we're in business.
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Don't give up hope guys if you're looking for cold and snow. The pattern finally looks like it could be shifting and the charts this morning have bags of potential.
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Looking at the model suite this morning I feel there are more positives. The UKMO and ECM are on the same page for a gradual slide towards colder conditions with snow chances for parts of Scotland next week and the GFS gets there in the end. The PV is still strong and situated where it makes it difficult for sustained cold but where East meets West snowfall is possible.
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Snow has turned sleety here 2.6c/1.0c.
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Precipitation has arrived for me and it's snow. Temperature still quite high at 3.7c but dewpoint low at -0.3c.
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I think you're actually pretty close to the mark there and if you look at the posts from someone like BA and quite often Nick Sussex they are always banging on about North America, this has a big bearing on our weather down the line, especially during record breaking periods.Right then peeps!
As ahm no technical enough wi regards tae the Withur Models etc. ah rely oan two things.
Firstly, ah look in the Mad Hoose tae see whit the Very Learned are saying, Steve, Nick, Me Holmy, Frosty tae name but a few.
Secondly, ah then prefer tae look in here for whit Lorenzo, LS and BUS tae name but a few are saying
(I know our guys post in the MT), but you'd need an Aeburdeen Trawler tae land the best posts in there. So far This Winter has been dominated by Storms coming in of the the Atlantic.
Now! this has apparently been driven by an exceptionally strong Jet Stream, which in-turn has been driven by an exceptionally cold North American Winter. (Up-Stream)
If any thing, all of this more so than ever before, is confirming to me that what happens Up-Stream has a ultimate impact on our resulting weather here in the UK.
My conclusion therefore is that why do we not simply look at the Models for the USA / Canada to see what the projected weather is for them.
This area of the NH (Up-Stream) is continental and much more easy to forecast accurately than our Island Location within the NH and surrounded by Ocean & Sea.
I think that we could possibly prevent all the disappointment which Model watching and Interpretation bring to so many in the hunt for Snow, Cold & Easterlies, if we always observe North America very closely for their current & also forecast weather before we try to work out what might happen here at T+ whatever
A simplistic view I Know, but to me it looks like as long as America & Canada are having a Record Breaking Winter, then We are phucked!!!
Big Simple Innes
The PV that's been situated to their north for weeks on end is a monster and has dominated our winter so far and tbh I can't see any signs of it weakening. Until this happens the best we can maybe hope for is transient cold before it's blasted away again by an attack from this mighty PV to our west.
I'd love to see the PV work in our favour later in the winter but it will take some dramatic changes over the next few weeks to budge it.
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I was a bullseye for that snow shower that's moving across the central belt. Has given a light covering and temperature has dropped from 2.9c before it arrived and is now sitting at 1.5c. Great to see a bit of falling snow.
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Heavy snow shower for me. Big flakes. It's quickly giving covering on grass and cars. 2.2c/1.2c.Looks like we may catch the next shower inbound from the west. What will it be? Answers on a postcard.
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Rain turning to sleet just north of Glasgow.
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It does look the wrong side of marginal for any widespread snow. I've had a steady fall in temperature during the morning but if the rain does actually reach me the best I'm expecting is some sleet or wet snow - which going on the winter so far would actually be great to see. 2.8c/2.0c.DPs look a bit too high initially across the board for snow from the approaching band but perhaps in the eastern borders they'll be pushed down once the precipitation hits. Charterhall's sitting at 2.3/0.8C so getting pretty close to snow levels. With a bit of intensity and the current 'stillness' we might just be able to drag surface temperatures down enough for snow for inland areas with even fairly modest elevation.
Also, this:
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From radar pictures it looks as though rain moving up from the South is arriving earlier than forecast by maybe a couple of hours so could be up to Glasgow before lunchtime. Currently cool, still and cloudy here 3.1c/2.2c.
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Tomorrows snow prospects for parts of Southern and Central Scotland really are finely balanced. Air temperature will be around 2-3c as the precipitation moves in, the thicknesses are ok but upper air is probably the wrong side of marginal for low ground at around -2c. The precipitation looks reasonably heavy which will help.
There could be some surprises for some with rain turning to sleet and then wet snow and maybe a covering if you have a little bit of height. Overall, definately worth a watch.
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Heavy rain with 7mm falling in the last hour.
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After such a wet and windy period of weather it looks as though I'll bring in the New Year with a lovely clear night and may even get a frost 2.1c/1.0c.
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42mm of rain for me since last night with more on the way. Most fields are waterlogged and the road conditions are quite tricky in places. Not looking great for the next few days. I have a feeling this winter may become memorable for some pretty serious flooding - not what I was hoping for.
Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14
in Regional
Posted
Just had first light snow shower of the afternoon. The snow was very light and powdery compared to much wetter snow this morning. Should be less marginal for more areas.