Barometer Obama
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Posts posted by Barometer Obama
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3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Already has gone Pete Tong. Quite a few people with egg on there faces as far as I'm concerned and I'll hold my hands up and say I'm one of them. Was expecting far worse than this but unfortunately it's easy to get caught up in the hype from the mad thread and look at your own thoughts. Biggest lesson ever learnt from me this year! Never again.
I can there is no turning you! But you are correct in that you must never get excited about a snow event until it is virtually upon you. Just watch the BBC forecast on the morning of the Jan 2010 event, they got the snow but the areas worst hit weren't predicted until it was pretty much happening...
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1 minute ago, Kreftysoton said:
Just watched the weather on bbc weather looks depressing for southampton. Snow showers tues morn south east. Heavy band of snow north east through north england then mid wales. Then wed snow focus is scotland. Then thurs all snow out west and low moving up to north england giving southampton rain...depressing if i cant get snow with this cold set up how will i ever.....resignes to it now
Don't give up yet. The models all have the low on a slightly different track, yes it may go Pete Tong but it is too early to write it off.
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Just now, Matty-H said:
Indeed. A trend that has been increasing run on run since early yesterday
The ukmo is sticking to pretty good for us. Even somewhere between the two would probably work. I just hope the gfs is heading in the wrong direction
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10 minutes ago, warmintim said:
Still not certain. Best for us (I'm including Cardiff with Warminster...) looks to the Meto and Icon, with ECM not too bad. Even GFS is a only a few changes away from being all snow for you/me, and potentially from Thurs until Saturday, with colder uppers moving south again. I think we still won't be certain until Tues eve or even Wed to be honest. I don't think (here comes the jinx) that many of us will see NO snow, its more the case of wether its a lot, or some then freezing rain etc.
the worry is the gfs and Ecm are pushing it further west, that trend needs to change.
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3 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:
morning,
I'm relying on this thread today to save me from acute embarrassment today. I live in Bournemouth but I'm at work in Fleet - I cannot afford to get stuck today. What chance? Have to do nursery pick up in Bomo by 6pm and my wife is home ill so she can't bail me out.
Am I doomed?
you'll be fine. Outside lane and stand on the accelerator with hazard lights on.
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Not the best of set ups for south coast, very different to the awesome event Jan 2010. The wind that supplies the fuel is the very thing that will hurry it through. Blink and we may miss it. Still, subtle changes could make a significant difference.
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Congrats to Channel Islands. Got to say I'm gutted for S coast, this would have been incredible if the low had come through the channel rather than the Loire valley. Conditions in Locks Heath perfect for snow, DP -7, air temp -2! Bit of light snow all morning, but nothing exciting.
People of Guernsey & Jersey send us your pics...
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Blimey it looks tight. Close but no cigar?!
Off to bed and dreaming of waking to find the track of the low 100 miles further north, it could happen...
BO
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DP -2, AT 1. Wind NNW,
Raining...
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where are all the central southerners?! i'm working in Farnborough at present, have a meeting in winchester this afternoon until 5pm, then have to get home to bournemouth afterwards.
Am i going to make it?!
Surely what is falling now across the New Forest/Bournemouth/Southampton area is rain is it not?
*edit* - the missus says it is raining heavily in bournemouth.
Hi mate, I'm on a late. It is not raining in Locks Heath yet. DP -2, air temp 1, wind straight out of the north
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Looking OK for us on the South Coast (still time I guess). Not sure why forecasts are turning the PPN for us to sleet tomorrow when temps including dp and uppers apear low enough for snow? Also SE wind predicted which ought to cool things down. Expert feedback welcome.
Great to see our region at the forfront at last! Lets hope it doesn't change at the last...........
I'm not an expert, but I've endured previous snow events and more commonly near misses. The danger for us on the coast comes from the fact that the wind in the middle part of the day is from the South, it will veer more easterly in the afternoon. Looking on the GFS the 528 thickness line is actually slightly inland, this is another negative for snow. As we get close to the event I would suggest going on weatherunderground and watching to see signs of the dew points rising in the west. And of course look on this forum, to follow progress. Hopefully by this evening the actual track will be pretty accurate and will know where is likely to get smothered! Anyone who says it WILL snow or it WON't SNOW for us on the coast is guessing, it will be very much a fingers crossed job. Next week looks very exciting if things don't quite go peoples way tomorrow.
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I wouldn't take much notice of that. This is an evolving situation, that won't be of any use. PC airmass definately pushing further west. mesoscale feature embedded in this, some places could get hammered. If I wasn't so concerned about jinxcing it I'd say that parts of Dorset are right in the firing line for a quite a dumping over the next few hours!
I agree, I don't think the BBCs forecast of earlier today was massively out. I'm certain that by morning Dorset will have more to show than Hants.
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Thanks OMM as ever, sounds pretty good for a lot of us, will parts of Dorset be getting any do you think?
Is it just me, or isn't Dorest going to get the heavier stuff?
Looking at a few radar images, and while I admit its a little further east, so far than predicted the heavy band to the N of Ox is heading for Dorset not Hants.
Stopped here for the moment.
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Blimey, can anybody else in the area clarify this too?
You must hate this micro-climate business.
Holding at freezing here.
Still light snow too.
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Snowing in Locks Heath!
DP -3, air temp 0, room temp 18, beer temp 15!
As others say wind is perfect, ENE hear and very light.....Get in!
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The BBC have been very progressive for this to be a snow event. I know the 528 dam line isn't crucial but we don't get until after the precipitation has moved through. This is a bit similar to saturday into sunday just gone where the temps plummeted after the event as the HP over Scandy reasserted itself. One thing on our side appears to be that the coastal breeze will have more of an East to it than saturday night.
On another note the UKMO has the heavy precipitation to the west as the front kind of bumps off the cold air and heads off with its tail between its legs in a SW direction (see link). So even IF we get the snow it may be very light the further east. Maybe this could turn into an event for our very patient friends over B'mouth/Poole way.....Weymouth...surely not?
Just my thoughts
http://www.meteociel...ech=6&archive=0
go to 36-48 hrs
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Looks to have downgraded significantly, next week just looks cool and dull. Nothing to shout about at all.
Wish I could disagree, but a downgrade certainly has been issued. However, the models are keeping high pressure to our North and while this situation remains, the chance for further snow cannot be ruled out.
BO
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Well done to all those who got snow, hopefully are turn on the coast will come.
We live in hope, however, reminded of being careful what I wish for seeing what is happening in Eastern parts of Europe at the mo!
Went over to the IW this morning and the Canoe Lake at Ryde is still frozen!
Amazing how just being the wrong side of marginal can have such a different result.
BO
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eSorry to ask again can someone explain wot this means please? Many thanks
I think this is referring to the track of the low which will pass across the IW and head across to NE France.
This will mark the end of the precipitation but crucially change the wind direction back to E or NE.
This will drop the temperatures and hence the worry for ice, particularly a problem for those of us who had rain!
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Bet the iow wud still get rain tho
wens that likely to be? its my birthday sun 12th wud love some snow Very difficult to call at this stage and it could all fall apart. However, if the trend maintains with an atlantic block then just watch the fax charts for short waves from the continent middle to late part of next week. So potenitally close to your birthday...
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Its been mentioned at by others recently, but for anyone feeling down in the dumps with the rain just look at the ECM @ 144.
The Atlantic door couldn't be more shut! I know its a bit out in the distance but with that LP centred over europe I'm getting that Dec 2010 feeling, if it comes off nobody on the coast will be worrying about rain. Apologies for the RAMP.
Back to reality;
Still rain in Locks Heath with DP about to meet the air temp @ 1.5, wind solid from the south. I guess this won't change until the low sinks south during the early hours. Reports of snow in Fair Oak which is no more than 10 miles north of me.
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Great post OMM
Lets hope nobody get freezing rain!
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Ok, slight sizzle/sleet here now in North Southampton, very light though and you have to squint to actually see anything falling from the sky! - but there is something...
DP still -3, temp dropping 1.5 at the mo.
Once the heavier band moves over I'm sure our region will see a significant snowfall, but I'm not sure how long it'll last before turning sleety again.
Hi Mate, where abouts are you?
Eastleigh? Romsey?
BO
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Raining in Locks Heath, air temp is starting to fall back, now 2.
However, DP 0 and currently rising further.
Early days, just need the DP to go into reverse and S wind to veer.
Fingers crossed
wens that likely to be? its my birthday sun 12th wud love some snow 
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Initial burst here in Locks Heath of heavy sleet with thunder and lightning to boot.