Barometer Obama
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Posts posted by Barometer Obama
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You often hear the phase, if this run verifies, on the model thread, no run verifies, at least not in the fine detail, be it temperatures, the exact placing of shortwave features, precipitation, air flow, all of these will go down to the wire. Model runs change in this respect every day of every year. We have a situation here that we haven't seen for a long time, I would advise that some need to manage their expectations a little better; if you are going to build them up too high you will most likely end up disappointed. For me this is all just brilliant stuff whether I see snow or not.
Couldn't agree with this more. Cold weather coming and very good chance to see snow later next week. Have a rare situation with the Greenie high and the models are understandably struggling to determine how the finer details are going to pan out. I'm trying now just to look up to 96 hours in an attempt to stay sane.
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The rollercoaster continues.
It looks to me like any precipitation on wednesday would be rain/sleet but then snow more likely thursday onwards.
I think patience is going to be the key, the Greenland high is virtually a dead cert and this should deliver.
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Sure the charts are a little of a worry, but yesterdays were truly amazing. I think we'd all have been happy a month ago if we knew that we'd be viewing charts like this in December!
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Wow some great charts this morning with the GFS and ECM showing awesome potential. I was concerned when I saw the UKMO with the west looking to wake up, but I feel reassured by some decent comments backed up with evidence and examples of why, even if it isn't an outlier it won't be bad news!
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"I must admit, my main reason for having this gut feeling is that I've seen the GFS overdo cold blasts at this range so many times and more often than not they downgrade to a watered-down version. But not always."
This is what I was alluding to earlier. I seem to remember a general feeling from last winter that the GFS is actually a bit of a ramper and that the ECM does tend to be a bit more down to earth and more importantly right! Looking forward to the updates, this forum will be so boring if they all start to agree.
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"I really dont understand what your getting at."
Lewis, just curious as to which model people trust the most. I guess that it depends on too many factors and that we should be veering towards what the general consensus is, which on this occasion is with the GFS. However, from previous visits to these forums I have maybe incorrectly got a vibe that the ECM is generally more accurate ?
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Fair point TEITS. One question; if you had to trust one of the models, GFS or ECM which would you go for, ignoring the current situation. I'm sure I know a lot less than yourself and visit these forums infrequently, however, I always get a feeling that most would trust the ECM ahead of the GFS. I can see that in the current situation the GFS has backing from other models therefore giving it more weight.
Thanks in advance for thoughts.
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Let me ask you all a question.
If the ECM was showing an E,ly but the rest of the models including the ensembles were showing a short lived cold spell, which model would you choose?
I suspect the replies would be something like "I don't believe the ECM and the GFS/other models are more likely to be correct". So with this in mind how come we're seeing so many negative posts?
Fair enough we need to be cautious but far too many posts are allowing previous disappointments to affect their judgment. If the ECM continues with the same output and all models trend the same way then I would agree with the negativity. However as it stands we currently have some fantastic model output and when you consider the time of year its even more fantastic.
I don't believe there are too many negative posts. There appears to be a good mixture of ramping and caution, and this makes perfect sense considering the GFS & ECM don't currently agree.
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A lot of you are basing your negative comments on let downs from the past , If for example you think ECM will be closer to the mark , can you say why . I am trying to understand the thinking behind the models logic if that makes sense.
Although we shouldn't ignore the hear and now, surely past experience is not to be forgotten. I suspect most people on this forum would love for the GFS to be right but where one of the other models (ECM) is currently not playing ball, ie very different position of the HP, logic would dictate that we should not be getting over excited....yet.
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Just glad that HP is taking a hold for a while as I appear to have a leak in the roof following all this rain!
Looking forward to following charts & forum over the coming week to see how it all pans out. I guess the the important thing today is to see whether the ECM and GFS start singing from the same hymn sheet again, always a worry when discrepancies start appearing!
BO
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Dont drive to North Oxford, sleet at best head it looks like to Milton Keynes :lol:
Places I COULD drive to. Work tomorrow in Pompey and i've apparently demolished 3 cans of london pride while dreaming about living north of the M4.
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Fascinating. Just had a nose at a few weather stations. Its currently 8C here on the S coast, but in places like Gloucs, Bucks and Oxf its zero. 8 degree difference to places that I could drive to in an hour or 2!
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My goodness, its turned back to snow. Not getting too excited as it will turn back to rain.
Just to send people further north over the edge, the flakes are the size of beer mats!
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well its raining here in pompey :lol:
looks a bit sleety but mainly rain
Yep, heavy rain here. The temp hasn't risen still 2C, but the dewpoint is now zero and the pressure is falling.
Good luck to all further north.
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This is a bit confusing im led to believe that the south of england is due to get rain tonight which it may well do,but its snowing at the moment and settling,maybe the mild air is nowhere near at present.i am just south of wiltshire and east of dorset and live in hampshire.Right just seen post saying precipitation generally is miles away.
Fairly certain its just the leading band that will be wintry. However, down here, dew point still -2.5, wind ENE.
The main event appears to be heading over Normandy as we speak I suspect the warmer air will arrive with this.
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I'd be very alert for West Midlands, I see the possiblity for a huge dumping of snowfall akin to what the SE has seen between Sunday-Monday...the exacts depends on the exactly where the low decides to place itself but I see at least enough of a risk to put it out there right now.
Looks like rain for the south. What are the odds of the cold air pushing further south wednesday night and bringing us a pleasant white surprise ?
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Currently snowing much heavier than yesterday and laying again on cars and footpaths.
L
Yep just started here again. Glad i'm off work today, walk down to the Hamble after fry up.
T
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Sun shining here now!
Forecast implies that the heavy band moving north this afternoon is going miss Hants, however there is a small band of showers hitting us 6am tomorrow morning, could be more sleet than snow......
Apolgies for gratuitous arrogance, but my post of yesterday morning hinted at showers for coast this morning.
Don't know where South today are getting 6C from? GFS top temp for us is 3C. Weather station near me currently 1.2, dew point -0.3.
I really don't think this is the end either, obviously very touch and go but if the cold from the north can dig far enough down we could see a more thurs/fri.
Toby
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Sun shining here now!
Forecast implies that the heavy band moving north this afternoon is going miss Hants, however there is a small band of showers hitting us 6am tomorrow morning, could be more sleet than snow......
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2cm here this morning. Very pleased for the people in B'mouth and Poole, its called snow!
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Because prior to January 2007, there had been an 11-year snow drought of accumulations involving anything remotely measureable.
Wonderful stat. I bet it was depressing chalking up those 11 years. Were you reguarly frustrated by reports of snow in Oxford and Didcot?
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Showers starting to survive further and further west and this will only continue in the next 6hrs as instablity increases further, I suspect that by 3am the showers will be well into CS England.
Yes, just seen this on the MO radar, a decent set of showers building but currently dying a death about mid sussex.
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I wouldn't pay too much attention to what the models are progging now with regards to the frontal system over France that comes up, as we are reaching the nowcasting stage of the event and thus there is every chance the front could behave differently, has happened many tims before,
If people are worried, the 12z fax charts for 12z Monday show a trough slap bang over CS England...
Thanks. Does this not suggest that we are likely to get nearer 10cm than 2cm along the Sussex/Hants coast ?
I suspect its more complex than this and the snow doesn't really take hold till it gets a few miles inland.
The IW may become important to those of us near me?!?
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whats my chances here in pompey then ???
i hope we see at least a covering by morning!!!
had some nice light snow earlier but not enough for it lay
As I see it we've got 2 chances of a decent accumulation in the next 24hrs, but both have the potential to take the form of the pear.
1. Tonight a significant band of snow is going to push through Essex, London, and Surrey. Most maps have the coast being on the edge of this, but fingers crossed.
2. Tomorrow afternoon, the heavy snow that moves up from NW France is set to just miss us, but its marginal so again fingers crossed.
Model Output - General Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Barometer Obama
UKMO updated on meteociel looks good. Precipitation for us southerners tuesday night, lets hope its cold enough!