[Scotland Weather discussion]

Morning folks, long time no see! I've been busy with the new job (which is something of a dream job combining weather forecasting and the railway but also not the most sociable hours), and now living in Glasgow which will be a novel experience in terms of snow chasing. 

 

I think we're in a relatively good place as far as snow chasing, certainly as good as we've had since 2010 (though bearing in mind there were a couple of years since where we had a watered down version of this which fell apart) - the worse versions of the medium term from the GFS are still fairly promising at least in terms of inland snowfall with a modest bit of elevation, and the European model has the fastest and cleanest evolution to deep cold we could really ask for 

 

Ensemble mean is as good as you'll see too, a textbook negative NAO setup with a northeasterly flow. 

 

I do think that things will become a bit less clean closer to the time, and we're very much fighting with the very mild ssts which mean the bar for snow is higher than the usual rules of thumb (though also likely pep up the showers) but given the starting point it's hard to think of a more promising outlook to start winter. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Incredible lows already, in addition to that Kinbrace figure, -18C in Strathdon and -17C Ballater (the latter I think has an official station albeit not an automatic one) 

Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM

---

Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide.

UKV suggests we're more likely to hit sub -20Cs in Sutherland rather than Aberdeenshire, with temperatures bottoming out fairly soon there, but we'll see...

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Amazing stuff, very glad to see Edinburgh and my bit of Fife properly ending up with a pasting. Rare to see such a relatively even distribution of depths like this (southwest Scotland excepted sadly), certainly on a par with 2009/10 and 2010/11 for that.

Depths here ended up around an even foot, not a massive amount more after the first streamer last night but certainly can't complain about that!

Going to make the most of it today and then I can get back to the weather studies I'm actually meant to be doing tomorrow

As for the polar low, if it is indeed that, it looks as though it'll stay offshore but with it an enhanced line of convection will come back into northeast Scotland Thursday night into Friday, so that's worth watching:

The charts have generally been getting worse longer term, but I do think it's still possible we hang onto a continental flow of some form past the weekend and from there who knows -it's far from an immediate breakdown and the temperatures tonight will be exceptionally cold, along with some continued convection (I think some chances of a tiny bit more snow even here this afternoon still).

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

50 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Bringing this back to review (original post Saturday). Some over/under estimation (and definitely under for Dundee) but overall I don’t think I need to hang my head in shame! 

Certainly not! Fife location LS was at 5 inches at lunchtime prior to some very intense showers, no measurements since but, you can decide, could be 18cm? I also think there's a reasonable shot they get more too

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Notice how this particular blob doubled in size within 10 minutes. Definitely being enhanced in the Firth. 

My god what is the blob towards Edinburgh doing, absurd intensity!

 

Still very heavy stuff here, brilliant if this is the end of it. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Amazing stuff hitting Coatbridge now, after a few near misses this is a hell of a thing with a potential direct hit 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Yeah I thought that myself the shower activity further NE has fell away a bit 

It's a very confusing radar, that last shower over Edinburgh very sharply darted northwest before it hit us but it does seem most of the movement is NE-SW. I think somewhere in Central Scotland will end up getting a pasting but very fine margins. 

Sadly we don't have the sort of tool @metallikat34 has for the US, would be bloody useful about now!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

19 minutes ago, Polar Side said:

The showers are slower moving than last night which helps if you get hit with one.

It's possibly helping us less in Coatbridge since you're retaining a bit more of it but they do seem to generally be getting through to Glasgow with ease. I would also say - that crazy blob heading through Fife (I'll expect lamp post reports from my mum ) is very much heading towards a good chunk of central Scotland...

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

may be getting well over excited but liking the look of this line that's forming

Me too! It looks very promising... 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

What's his source coz that's BS in reality. 

There's presumably some raw model output that resolves graupel as rain because of the shallow warm layer. But no serious weather watcher would look at the -12C uppers around and say "aye that looks like rain to me"

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Could be another surprising evening to come. Hefty showers aligning again now... 

I was just going to mention this - it does look like they might be lining up quite nicely for a similar line of attack to last night...

It chimes with the UKV output too, which has pretty high precipitation totals here through to 2am or so. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

11 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

To whom do I send my request for this to link up and intensify? 

 

There's some hints of convergence in the Forth, notably that it's moving due west while the band just to the northeast is heading southwestwards. 

Another shower here, I was having a beer in the igloo we built and thought it was a bit graupel-y sounding but deposited a fresh half cm in 5 minutes or so. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

12 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It could intensify the showers coming over the forth and boom into Edinburgh.

I’ll emphasis the word  “could’

I think that's certainly possible, things a bit quiet on our line here with the shift to a more due easterly flow meaning we're having to contend with too much land and not enough Forth to really allow much to get through. An even 23cm here, which I think is a bit better than an average easterly for here, but would be good to round up to an even foot...

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A few really intense showers there, think we're probably a couple of inches short of Ruzzi's haul in Caldercruix but still some serious snow. 

Looks like the flow here is more due east than it's been, which probably is a good sign for most of us given where the convection is lined up. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, aggy said:

INCOMING 

That's the best blob we've had all day, incredibly heavy and we're only at the southern edge of it. Hopefully a precursor for more.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Radar and sky looking tasty again on the Edinburgh-Coatbridge line, thick flakes coming down. I haven't tracked down a good ruler in this house yet but using the phone ruler I'd estimate 7-8 inches level here, very impressive fall given we had a dusting just 18 hours ago.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

29 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Ugh. I wish there was the UK equivalent of this site from the US. @LomondSnowstormor anyone else know of anything? Use this site all the time for mesoscale forecasting back in the States. Would be invaluable right now.

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis

WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV

 

Me too! Sadly I can't think of any equivalent for here really which is why we're annotating blobs on the radar with Microsoft Paint  

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, 101_North said:

That it would stop that and head back down here 

Exactly to be fair it's been ok here, we've had a fairly consistent if light compared to yesterday streamer which seems to consist of convection filling in the gaps in the Forth from the bridges and heading inland, but it'll definitely head back south as the day goes on from what I can see and Lothian and Borders will probably see more persistent stuff overnight as the flow turns more northerly and gets a bit slacker. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Still no amber warning for here:

Would be pretty difficult not to be aware of the snow at this point

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, sn0wman said:

Woke up to not really any more snow than when I went to bed last night. Think Edinburgh has been unlucky with the shower track overnight, but a heavy snow shower has just started so hopefully this is changing!

Looks like it - it's been similar here, a couple of wee showers since 3am but not much otherwise on the same track, and what we did have cropped up once the shower was to the west of Edinburgh.

The flow is basically as it was further east with maybe slightly more of a northerly tilt out in the North Sea, but further west there's a bit of a bend in the isobars that's causing some movement from southeast to northwest and presumably weakening the showers. This looks like it will be flattened out in the next couple of hours so I'd expect more of the showers to get through intact as the day goes on. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Even in the gap between the two lines we seem to be getting snow, not as heavy but I think we're starting to see more convection bridging the gap between the lines and some cropping up at the head of East Lothian as well. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Just now, Snowlover2 said:

Thank you. I’m not going to risk it. The sky is so white it’s light outside and it’s currently very heavy snow. 

A good shout, there's reds on the radar near Fife and even green/yellow here was producing whiteout conditions.

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

So this is what we're up to here, 10 minutes before the Amber warning that doesn't actually extend as far as here kicks in

The streamer setting up does look like it might push a little northwards again, hard to judge but certainly can't complain about the totals so far with more to come tomorrow. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

36 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

To my eye there are now three main streams, it may be coincidence @LomondSnowstorm but there's that one making landfall just south of Berwick just like 2018:

Yeah it's become quite neatly defined in the last hour or so, and they seem to be merging into somewhat more organised streamers with individual showers linking together with the one behind. If we could end up with effectively just continuous bands of snow then totals could easily end up out of control - if I recall correctly that was what buried Cumbernauld in 2018 and what the December 2010 red warning (bizarrely for Edinburgh in the second easterly) was for. 

 

We could also be talking about ice days anywhere that's under a streamer - the temperature when it's snowing heavily will just be the -10/-11 uppers warmed with the wet adiabat, so anywhere from 0C to -3C depending on the uppers and whether you're at sea level or have some elevation.