[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Euro4 broadly the same as before, maybe less for the "Slamannan bullseye" and more for Fife but still quite impressive totals flagged.

No sign of graupel here in the heavier stuff

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Big flakes, everything turning white properly again 

That radar is quite something...

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, aggy said:

Hahaha would probably of bent your ear and asked u to pinpoint Cumbernauld on the euro 4 map

It's almost always under the big blob of snow from my experience

Speaking of big blobs of snow, the radar is shaping up very nicely here and the snow's just come back on properly...

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Sunny Leith said:

Like I say, not exactly a mountain snow shadow between us and Berwick Law ! Getting officially annoyed now 

I wonder if it's to do with the position of the convergence line - I think it's still a little bit north of Edinburgh so perhaps the convection is getting 'sucked' into that for now. I did notice the shower at Cumbernauld was also notably light, although there's some red stuff on the radar in the Forth that I think might just track down the M8...

It does seem that the next shower and the blobs behind are perking up, so fingers crossed! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Just been out for a wander in Cumbernauld (I waved to Aggy ), definitely more snow lying there as expected but also quite nice to see blue skies on the way back (think the next lot of snow is moving in so the clear skies won't last). 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 hour ago, Allyw12 said:

Can I ask if Perth area will still see any of the more persistent showers tonight/tomorrow?  I feel we’re going to end up missing out again. 

I'd certainly think so, just as Aberdeen has had fairly substantial showers through today Perth is likely to see plenty more snow too, and some of the heavier stuff right through tomorrow is still modelled to hit around the Tay as well as the Forth. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

We're starting to see the southward shift on the convergence zone on the radar. Probably expect it to end up over the Forth (although with the northern end still North of the Tay just about) by 5pm based on the models and the radar, although the heaviest and most persistent stuff will arrive tomorrow morning. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Sunny Leith said:

Forth Estuary is gagging for it but flurries apart, being spurned by blobs and streamers to the north in Fife, and to Berwickshire in the south. Something going on in the 3-D dynamics this time that I don't understand. I normally give family and friends 3 or 4 days notice of these events when I'm convinced they're going to happen (anything to make me look clever about the weather LOL), but didn't this time - probably based on the relatively non-standard winter we've had . Something not quite right in the setup for us and not convinced its going to resolve significantly. Anyway, just TORPing in the absence of anything much happening here 

Tell me about it - I'm currently on the "Edinburgh track" (or maybe a tad to the west of it) and it's been a painful couple of hours aside from the odd shower The Forth is looking as decent for convection as it has all day though so I'm hopeful, maybe a slight change in the wind direction would help too (although ultimately once the convergence zone heads that'll probably do the trick).

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

26 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Ukv often under does snow depths in these showery set ups? Gave nothing for here and dundee and stuff last night, thinking it will be a combo of the 2

Hard to tell, we haven't had the UKV publicly available for previous big easterlies, but I don't remember the Euro4 overestimating totals particularly in non-marginal setups. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

UKV is also in agreement. quite widely 10cm. locally 20-30cm.

Fascinating to see such differences between the two, not in distribution (although the euro4 does go a bit further south west with it) but in totals. I did think the Euro4 was a 'snowier' model but moreso because it seems to have a bit of a cold bias, and I assumed the precipitation modelling was pretty similar (although it could be that the UKV models a little melt during daytime for whatever reason). 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, EastLothianSnow said:

How’s it looking to the east of Edinburgh @LomondSnowstorm? Are we likely to be in the firing line at some stage in my neck of the woods? 
 

MetOffice app showing heavy snow/heavy snow showers here from this evening and most of tomorrow, but we aren’t in the amber warning area so not expecting too much. 

I do think you guys should do pretty well, theres no particular reason the showers would avoid East Lothian, certainly compared to the issues Edinburgh faces where we need a bit more of a northerly tilt, and you'll still be getting heavy stuff well into Wednesday as well even if it's not quite as good today for whatever reasons 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

18 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

No wonder the met office have issued an amber warning. I still think the snow depths they’re predicting are on the conservative side. Annoyingly I’m just outside the warning area but it’s a good sign that Glasgow isn’t too far away from the amber warning. 

Me too - Freuchie makes it in (not quite as far as @Hawesy sadly!) but we must be a mile at most from it at this end of Coatbridge because Gartcosh is covered by it Can't argue too much about the placement (not that far from what I sent last night if I remember correctly albeit a little later?), I'd think Edinburgh on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could end up with one, we could see this one extended a little north/south depending on changes and still time for a red warning within the area somewhere. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Light shower just started here. 
 

Errrr......

 

(It's the same from 9am-then) 

Seems, unlikely to be rain

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Sunny Leith said:

Yeah so far very underwhelming, has certainly lacked the immediate impact of previous easterlies over the past decade or so. Seems like we maybe have 36-48 hours left to get something decent on the ground here from the East-ENE, but so far pretty frustrating.

I think Tuesday night/Wednesday morning has some good potential for you guys, most models have the flow heading towards a proper northeasterly for a bit and with it not really getting so far inland, Edinburgh would be in a decent spot. I'd imagine you'll get a fair bit before then though too! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, edo said:

Showers seem to be losing intensity out to sea as nearing land or am I seeing things

I think this will just come and go with individual 'blobs' really, the shower over us held up very well and us finally giving a covering here so I'd imagine things will pep up behind that. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

The snow found some very creative ways of missing here overnight (actually both Freuchie and Coatbridge!), including splitting a shower north/south - looks like a pretty intense one heading down the M8 now though... 

 

The models have generally moved things a bit north as far as the main convergence lines go, generally sinking but holding a little more than yesterday evening, but I'm interested to see quite how far that holds because the flow is well primed for a Forth-Clyde streamer too and there's no lack of convection either. I suspect we could end up with a couple of convergence lines, one more Tay based and one more Forth based, developing on that basis

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

28 minutes ago, thebigyin said:

I think you are right.  I am sort of willing it South a bit but looks to have your name on it, though hard to say who'll get it between here and further up. 

Interesting on the fax charts after the convergence jaggy line has moved down East coast over the next few days and in to Northern England, a polar low over Shetland?  and Heading down?  Wishful thinking perhaps?  (or more accurately, poor interpretation of a fax chart by me!)

 

EDIT, in fact looking at the FAX charts it is bang on them, where it shows 6am it running in just north of here, by midday just south of here, and then drifts down until midnight Fife-ish, and midday tomorrow Central Belt.

No I think you're absolutely bang on about the polar low (or at least something like that) - those -40C 500hPa temperatures we're chasing for Wednesday give exactly the setup for such a thing and the UKV for one has it developing then for Shetland. Unfortunately for the rest of us it just hangs about in the North Sea, but could easily take a bit of a detour and clobber somewhere on mainland Scotland too...

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, edo said:

so out of sorts, hill anonymous, no protection for mahomes, a real mess

Mahomes and maybe Rodgers (well also Brady) are the only folk I'd bother to keep watching this game for, but it's still possible so I'll crack open another drink (plus I do think there's another shower incoming, finally).

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Just now, Puffy MacCloud said:

I had three bottles of assorted Orkney Brewery beers left over from the 6 Nations element of the weekend. Highly recommended, the Orkney ales. Also now finished. I'm moving on to Auchentoshan American Oak single malt whisky for the third quarter. I may not see the fourth quarter...

Good stuff, I may crack open the single malt I've got here after this one too. 

The lamp post check was sadly as worthwhile as the KC offensive line tonight

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Somewhat related, but what beers are we on tonight? I got a wee shipment of Augustiners (my beer of choice out in Innsbruck, I really miss it sometimes), but on Bitter and Twisted at the moment (one of the favourites from my local, which ironically I'm just as sentimental about at this point ). 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, edo said:

snowing heavily

 

remembers this is weather forum

Radar still looking good, although showers dying a bit the further south/west they get so far, KC a bit less so...

 

The Scotland thread is also a bit less, ehm, strictly policed, as far as allowing things that are fine but maybe off topic, compared to the old MT, so I think the odd NFl post at 1am isn't going to end up too badly

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, edo said:

totally agree, chiefs look totally off their A game and Tampa are all doing their jobs.....as seen in playoffs last year though KC can turn it on in an instant and score a pile but not against a defence like this at the top of their gamer i dont think.

I suppose the 49ers last year were on the same level defensively, and gave them similar struggles, but always hard to beat Brady in the playoffs.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Back to weather, and I'm really quite impressed by how much the convection is pepping up east of the Forth - not as intense as the convergence line to the north but starting to stretch out pretty far:

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

11 minutes ago, edo said:

astonishing...gronk can barely run and keeps producing....tampa defence great...mahomes misfiring...he will come good but might be too late

Good stop by KC but the Buc's defence is terrifying, KC just don't look like the same team at the moment. If they can keep it within 10 they can probably come back but hard to beat a pass rush like that against backups. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

I'm also staying up for the Super Bowl (basically a neutral after my adoptive team had their customary exit in the NFC championship) although I suspect I wouldn't have slept that well anyway with the radar starting to look more interesting for here. I can report lying snow (about a light covering) in Freuchie.

The wind is starting to shift to quite a nice direction for more of the Forth convection to head down the M8, and the southern band is stronger than I've seen it all day. Probably worth a lamp post check at half time