[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, edo said:

another great theory  makes sense.

Cheers! I'd think especially with powdery snow, less dense etc. 

 

That shower over Edinburgh is a pretty incredible example of convergence, if you look back it's actually 3 showers that have come together! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, edo said:

and a lot have commented on the radar misleading, i just had heaviest shower of evening and the radar was showing light precip, the shower had not broken up how it was portrayed on the radar.

im actually considering a measure before i fall asleep

Agreed, seems to be more underestimating today, although could be that it's just blown a bit so you're effectively 'stealing' the upwind snow - I suspect that's what's happening here, since it looks like maybe an extra inch or so compared to what the radar shows but everywhere just a bit to the east/northeast is closer to what I reckon our depths are. 

 

Big blob delivering here, big flakes and no real sign of let up

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Spindrift2017 said:

I would like it to go a slight bit south, as it feels as we keep catching the very edge of these showers - at least there’ve been a few and the grass isn’t showing through any more.

It's quite something how consistent it's been at that, and I do feel for folk just a bit south who have had far lower totals. The next lot of showers look like they have some more southerly tracking elements again - it's a fascinating watch on the radar because you can actually see the showers converging at the mouth of the Forth, hence why so many of the blobs look somewhat patched together. 

I also see more opportunities tomorrow, especially afternoon/evening, for a bit further south. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Sunny Leith said:

If that long stringy series of blobs out past Dunbar just now can make its way across the head of East Lothian then I think that's all on track for Edinburgh (currently).

That flow has been pretty consistent all night - head of East Lothian-Edinburgh-M8-Coatbridge. Possible it shifts a tiny bit north, not sure why it would but I'm almost feeling guilty at how lucky we've been on this track tonight. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

That blob really has delivered here, almost half an hour at pretty much the same intensity as in the video and I'm guessing an extra inch or more, definitely higher totals that even what's shown on the radar. The road that's been gritted three times tonight and the odd car rolling down the hill has a couple of inches lying on it too. I've been waiting for a wee break in the radar or intensity to sleep but not sure it's coming any time soon, really special stuff. 

I also just joined the dots - the 'decaying occlusion' on the Fax charts for Thursday is actually what I think is a polar low (the core of it on the UKV is certainly sub -7C uppers)... So, aye, that could be fun too. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Polar Side said:

Don’t worry, I was getting a bit concerned too.

If I still lived in Edinburgh I'd never be satisfied until the snow was actually on and settling - I'm still scarred from 2012/13 when it was permanently half a degree too warm to lie in town

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, aggy said:

So glad I changed my work day , however if things keep going the way they are I believe there is a good chance I won’t get the car out the street on Wednesday 

can confirm that blob is blobby indeed 

Can't argue with these results, crazy snow 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

40 minutes ago, aggy said:

What was everyone’s totals during that 

 

I had zero

You've upgraded from 0 to like 2 feet or so in 2018 It was crazy in Cumbernauld - I remember working there at the time and folk couldn't get out at all, cars stranded on the M80 etc 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

There's something wonderful watching these brightly coloured blobs subsume half the country, this one looks especially blobby and about as intense as we've had I'd say if it holds up ok:

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

That’s not even what his own image shows.

I think it's the same wording he's used for a couple of days judging by the other tweets, but while it was true earlier (well for central Scotland at least) and yesterday things have changed a bit this evening to say the least...

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, edo said:

@Allyw12 @TinyTim @MAXcrazystormthis looking interesting

It does look like the line is gradually nudging north a bit, the showers here are starting to shift on a more northerly trajectory for example so we're at the southern end rather than really in the middle as we were for most of the evening. It's not a clear cut movement and I doubt it'll be much but Tayside and north Fife (and probably Stirling and Clacks too) will likely see more action overnight than this evening.  

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

To be fair to the Met Office, I checked to see how Windy Wilson's forecast was faring, and it's not much better! 

Some of it is fair but random, sporadic and isolated this is not

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Shame that big blob is missing us to the north. Should catch a bit from the bottom end though

 

Yeah I kept thinking the next blob (towards Edinburgh) was going to miss us but it grew a bit to the south as it hit land! Really incredible stuff, and the angry man seems set to deliver for the next 20 minutes or so here first at pretty much the same ridiculous intensity it has been on and off all night. 

At this point, I'm struggling to see how this is an overestimate, at least for here (probably keek for the Northwest Highlands to be fair)

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

23 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Still loads of time yet. Still got right through til early hours Wednesday morning and then anything can happen after that too. 

I've not measured but I reckon we'll be at the 10cm mark by now, plenty more to come for many 

 

* Lining up nicely for Cumbernauld just now

Aye, you can get to 20cm with 6 hours of being under these showers... 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Looking at the pressure charts on the UKV it's remarkable how consistent the positioning and even angle of the 1016hPa line is:

It moves north a little through the night and straightens out a bit (good for those further west I'd think?) then back south a bit, but if this is right this might somehow continue in a similar vein through tomorrow, aside from a slackening of the flow from the north.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Hmmm

 

 

Hey, if sustained hurricane force winds on the Isle of Lewis didn't merit a red warning a few inches of snow on the M8 isn't worth moving the warning time and extent for

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Benvironment said:

-1.4C. A real joy to have snow falling in subzero conditions for a change. We didn't manage an ice day today, it rushed up to 0.9C at lunch time but fell back very quickly. Maybe tomorrow.....

Finally caught the edge of a blob a moment ago. First time we've had actual snow falling today rather than graupel. 

We do seem to be sustaining the southern convergence line while also developing hefty convection further north too. Not easy to say what happens tonight - UKV has a general 'cycling' of the line up and down from what I can see whereas the GFS just gradually sinks it southwards until mid morning when it then cycles back north. I don't really buy that looking at the radar, it seems more like things are moving northwards but expanding moreso than shifting, but it would be incredible (and surely red warning worthy) if we sustain the intensity of convection over so much of Scotland overnight.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

19 minutes ago, Michael Kaii said:

@LomondSnowstorm are these showers were getting now are they ment to be even more heavy throughout the night cause these showers are mental when it comes to intensey and this is before the amber warning too

Don't think they can get much heavier to be honest! But probably staying at a similar intensity where the convergence zones are, maybe easing a bit in between times or less frequent.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

If this keeps up I think the Amber area will be extended

It's still astounding to me that the operational forecaster at the Met Office is watching this and not putting an immediate amber warning out. White out conditions and snow covering the busiest motorway in Scotland surely merits something more than yellow on the impact matrix. We've seen this time after time with easterlies, and it's not like their own models aren't showing this. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

18 minutes ago, aggy said:

South of fourth isn’t ideal for us but great for you 

we have been missing the heavy stuff in the last hour or so as they are going north or south of here 

Aye it's very impressive here but no doubt it'll shift back a bit in a couple of hours. Proper whiteout conditions here!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

I do wonder if the snow totals might be underestimated a tad because of higher accumulation rates than usual for here - for example, the radar has 1.5mm of precipitation for the last 3 hours here but it's certainly over an inch now, which makes sense given the temperature is -1C. That might be balanced out by some graupel but we do seem to be outgaining the UKV by a fair bit even based on the 15Z (which has something in the region of 1cm for here by 8pm). Anyway it's still probably the best guide we have to distribution, and all snow depth guides are labelled experimental for a reason (not to mention we shouldn't exactly sneeze at the 15Z or 12Z totals ) 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

14 minutes ago, aggy said:

Am I right in thinking it then comes back down and funnels up the fourth ? Around the early hours ?

I'd think so, the timings are a bit up in the air really but generally it'll fluctuate back and forth between the main streamers being south of the Forth and along the Tay over the next 30 hours or so. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Amazing snow here, just gone off but hard to remember seeing such intensity. Covered over a well gritted busy road in a couple of minutes. You really do have to wonder though - how is snow this intense alone, in central Scotland, not grounds for an amber warning tonight? I take the point about lockdown certainly but still... 

 

Anyway I'll go back to enjoying it after the wee rant

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

21 minutes ago, aggy said:

Are the convergence lines splitting ? Or is it my eyes 

so to keep track of tonight tomorrow the is this the position the line stays on or does it go north then come back up the fourth 

 

just so I’m prepared and don’t have a meltdown 

From my reading of it, it'll alternate between being split and fluctuating - I think it might be starting to move back north a bit in an hour or two and I certainly don't think places like Perth, for example, are at all out of it yet.