russell k
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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
and the GFS and your own model? -
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
so bluearmy are the Met Office all gathered round a table at 3.30pm awaiting the download of the GFS and their own model (12zs) and then after tea and biscuits the 12z ECM downloads from 6pm onwards... ? -
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
sorry... I thought if it was issued at 12.00 they might have access to it/them before the wider population? apologies if I'm barking up the wrong tree ...or just barking! -
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking forward to the 12z output..... the MET have already seen it ( I think) waxing not waning, just what we needed -
Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But the mean is about 1.0c above the 00z it maybe disappointing but ATM the chances of cold/snowy weather are waning rather than waxing, just the way the NWP shows, hope this reverses with the 12z output cheers r -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please look again and at the 2m v 850 on the 12Z and the min v max from the op. cheers -
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't understand the Ens the 06 gfs showed this IMBY ?? I know I rarely post, but there seems to be lack of logic in this data? hopefully the recent NWP verifies for as all, I just hope the devil will be in the detail Temp -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi SM could you send me a link to the Strat thread, thanks RK -
Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond
russell k replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great explanation and a really good read, combined with your anomaly explanation (about 2 weeks ago) once I fully understand I would like to join the thread ...until then thanks Russell -
Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
there seems a lot of doubt looking at the SLP ens -
Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.
russell k replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi the 2m temps are always an outliner in FI ,,, no idea why -
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't quote much on this thread, but looking at all the NWP it appears an interesting but not exciting next 128hrs -the fax this am was still IMO too far east and tonight could be looking in the mirror! however I think we are moving in the right direction... very slowly and a change will happen from the NW and later deeper cold from the east in mid Feb. -
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Nick -Looking at all the NWP output over the last 24 hours we have more chance of a PM flow than a cool continental flow within T+168 perhaps with a bit of snow. Beyond that if zonality digs in again but further south, the cold can flood into central Europe opening the door to our east, with something more realistic to deliver how's the snow in the Pyrenees' -
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes- there has been a consistent but not dramatic drop of the ens, and less showing mild -
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
russell k replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Made me laugh, great quote -
Firstly I must admit I'm English (been here 23 years), however it does make me laugh when people in Crewe or even worse Stafford think they live in the Northern half of the UK even Mcr my home town not there, anyway lets hope for a better ECM after a poorer 12z gfs
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More importantly have you seen Ian f's twitter; "Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain. looks like met are more confident now of a more prolonged cold-spell,for most of the country"
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Yes! BBQ weather 15 miles north of glasgow, shorts and T shirts, i think some records were broken, best weather of the summer up here!
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WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013
russell k replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
From a starting point of now i disagree, but after that I wouldnt want to pick the bones out of it, and remember last week (as the thaw set in) it was much worse and still a chance for many now -
Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
russell k replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
thats more like it cant wait for T120, a tad furher west would be great- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
russell k replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Not really but not to keen on the ceilida either... unless its snowing of course (sorry about the spelling) took me 10 years to pronounce Milngavie right! cheers. Fingers crossed for something over the next few days. Remember some of those "southerners" maybe seeing the snow turn to rain and mush early next week- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
russell k replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
thanks, skies clearing here, slight dusting on the campsies, we sometimes do quite well here on a easterly, clutching straws!!- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
russell k replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
cheers SS, no escape now!- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
russell k replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
My first post on here for some time. it looks like we might get another bite of the cherry Sun/Mon and even beyond that the Meto 6-15 days might provide further opps. I have to admit to being English but i have lived here for 22 years, so I hope you dont mind me posting, cheers.- 789 replies
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