NorthNorfolkWeather
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Another couple around the Caldera, one ESE, one North, both near 3.5, both checked, neither particularly shallow
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Sudden jump in inflation?
Could be the cause of the fresh round of small quakes
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The plume from the fissure is much reduced today and I noticed that the IMO have removed the SO2 warning. Oups, just noticed the SO2 warning is back on!
Karyo
I think they are forecasting light winds, so what comes out will hang about
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Compare the 2 in bold almost identical positioning, but the newer one considerably closer to the surface
Saturday
13.09.2014 07:58:15 64.666 -17.447 3.0 km 4.9 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
12.09.2014 23:58:55 64.672 -17.485 7.1 km 4.7 99.0 4.1 km NNE of Bárðarbunga Friday
12.09.2014 23:52:13 64.671 -17.461 7.6 km 3.1 99.0 4.7 km NE of BárðarbungaAccording to the wonderful Google maps almost exactly 750m horizontal separation between the quake last night and the same strength on this morning, 4,600 Metres vertical separation, which is a big distance for the strain to travel.
Maybe caused by the ice breaking?
My thought exactly
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yep, very quite.
Interesting the way that it spikes and quietens, overall number of quakes is well down now, will be interesting to see if we get a repeat pattern
Other point is many of those quakes in the caldera last night were very shallow
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It goes to show how sensitive the camera is that the car lights are soo bright.
As far as Barda is concerned I vary between hope and despair. hope that it will go bang, despair that it will be catastrophic. I would rather see it go soon and (reasonably) gently that it accumulate everything and go with a huge bang.
More quakes in the rift under the ice tonight
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Don't shoot the messenger but one of the scientists, currently in Iceland and who has a twitter feed, remarked last night that they do not hold Jon in high regard from a scientific standpoint. That does not mean Jon is not right but neither does it mean his word should be taken before qualified scientists. Maybe they will become more worried themselves and issue a greater level of alarm but for now they are holding fire....
It's fascinating and potentially worrying nonetheless.
Joe
Jon is always clear that he's not qualified as a scientist, I've seen him declare it several times, I also note that he only ramps things up if scientists have said something.
But yes you are right and we should consider all angles
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Very noticable drop in quakes now, only 9 since this mornings 4.7
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I wonder what the shallower depth means? It is an interesting change.
Well, it looks as if it's only just below sea level according to wiki the volcano rises to a fraction over 2,000 metres, so if it's 3,500 meters from the surface that's pretty shallow
I'd assume that the deeper earthquakes only serve to transfer the stress closer to the surface. Then as other quakes happen the stress either increases or decreases until the fault can't support itself and lets go. That would then be likely to increase the pressure lower down, so we see a see saw effect, deep, shallow, less deep, shallower as the mountain settles.
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We have the first big one of the day! 4.6 in Bardarbunga
karyo
Same NNE corner, shallow as well, been ugraded a smidgin and reviewed very quickly
Friday
12.09.2014 09:32:56 64.677 -17.476 3.5 km 4.7 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga
As you say on the other quakes noticeably fewer today
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A drop in seismic activity overnight after a another large one. Misty on the cam with only a faint glow showing the eruption is still carrying on.
The Fissures were looking very bright last night, the drop in EQ's probably means the lave is more freely flowing. The main problem with the number of earthquakes that have happened around the caldera is that the ring faults that surround the outside of the caldera have been severely weakened. Add the amount of ice sitting above (10km * 7km * .7km = 49 billion tonnes) that adds to the downward pressure due to the reduction in pressure in the magma chamber.
The figures associated with all this are truly amazing
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is it just me or do the fountains look more active at the moment compared to earlier on.
I just looked and was quite surprised how active they looked, that should mean a reduction in pressure -- OR further deflate the caldera
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The screenshot shows how close to a complete circle the earthquakes over M3 have made in the last 48 hours.
Following on from JonFR's comments yesterday where he said a collapse was already in progress, it would seem that it's increasing in speed. The more quakes we get the greater the chance of a catastrophic collapse.
Add to that the list of quakes over 3 SO FAR today and it's not looking good
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As a newbie can I ask a question?
Is the Mila 2 cam looking towards Barda or is it situated on Bada looking away?
Same goes for Mila Cam 1, though I recognise that it is further away and looking from a position further left than cam 2.
MIA 1
You aren't a newbie, you're an old hand now
I think both are situated away from the volcano with 1 being quite a lot further away than 2.
I wouldn't like to be the bloke servicing 2
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Several of the bigger quakes at the cauldera are at 5km deep or less.
I think Jon is right and that the cauldera will collapse, could be a slow burner but I think there's a distinct possibility of a big bang
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Anyone notice how shallow the quakes are over at Katla ?
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Interesting that the quakes under the ice look to be more concentrated than they were.Jonfr said on his blog that he thought an eruption had started there. I just wonder whether water ingress has cooled the lava and as a result the pressure has increased. That would put extra pressure on the outflow from Bunda5.5 10 Sep 05:28:29 Checked 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga --
5.2 09 Sep 01:07:29 Checked 7.9 km ENE of Bárðarbunga --
4.8 10 Sep 15:51:14 Checked 4.2 km SE of Bárðarbunga--
4.3 09 Sep 21:44:45 Checked 1.3 km W of Bárðarbunga --
4.1 10 Sep 15:51:00 Checked 4.2 km SE of Bárðarbunga --
3.9 09 Sep 21:43:11 Checked 0.8 km WNW of Bárðarbunga--
still roughly the same place
more in the ice and still the bigger quakes at bara
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
also still deeper ones there showing the feed is still strong
the watch continues
Whoops just seen that Pit thought of that before me
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"you can see how the Holuhraun eruption compares to New York: the lava would now cover Manhattan to 53rd Street and its volume would frame the entire Empire State Building, except the tip of the antenna."
Like that bit , it sort of gets it in to something we can relate too.
I must point out that until we see the evidence from the camera or IMO, that a fissure eruption has started nearer the Bada volcano, under the glacier.
It is only me assuming what is going on, it could be nothing like what I have said in the posts above.
We will see
K93.JPGStrains throughout Iceland from this, Hekla is a hair trigger sort of beast, don't take too much tugging and pulling...
K94.JPGHi Rusty,
Those clouds look different and camera2 is showing nothing but shaking a lot. All looking dodgy again
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US Safety limit is 5000µg/m3 but 2600 is very unpleasant
UK COSHH Limits are tighter
Derived No Effect Levels are only 2600 for short term exposure and 1300 for long term
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This is a view of the Sulphur Dioxide in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Sept 9th. So we can see that at least some of the sulphur is making it that high.
This is the today's picture so far from all atmospheric layers up to stratosphere.
Shows quite clearly the amount of SO2 in the atmosphere and how far its spreading across the northern hemisphere.
These pics are also editable so you can change the overlays.
will not be long before the SO2 in the lower troposphere goes at the way around the top of the world
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Thank you, but I still could be wrong, we will see..
This volcano is the most interesting of things...
Isn't it? I should be doing some work.....
Instead I'm watching volcanic plumes
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Great Catch Rusty well doneNetweather exclusive Gotcha 2 yes 2 plumes.......
Gotyah.JPG May be not we will seeI think Jon was right
GOTYAH 2.JPGThe hottest clouds around...
Hoy clouds.JPG https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/Ther is a slight chance that events might have caught up with the webcams, like a shock wave. Only slight, but worth mentioning.
NASA pic :-
NASA.JPG Thanks for that, pals. ATM At the moment
K67.JPG 1941 UKThat NASA site is a bit tasty
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Yes, very odd. Often differences in magnitude but normally you can identify the time and location.
There now, along with another 4 minutes earlier at M3.8
Here's a question for someone. When a quake is reported at, for example, 1km depth, does that mean it's 1Km below ground level? I ask because Barda is just over 2,000m in height, so any quake reported at 1km depth could be 1km from the surface of the mountain (excluding Ice) or 1km below sea level.
Anyone know?
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Earthquakes Tsunamis â€@NewEarthquake 12m
5.4 earthquake, 118km WNW of Hofn, Iceland. Sep 9 01:07 at epicenter (13m ago, depth 6.8km). http://j.mp/1lOCfZD
I see that on the USGS, but nothing matching on the vedur.is site.
nothing even at the same time. Strange
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Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
First time in a while that no big quakes are showing at Barda. There was a question asked last week about tidal effects that were mostly discounted. Looking at the way the quakes seem to have moved through the day, I wonder whether there is an element of tidal interaction, perhaps not with the lava directly, but the stress placed on the crust as the moon orbits the earth.
IF (and it is a big IF) that's the case, we could be waiting until the period around the new moon for anything big to happen as tidal forces will be decreasing now until then.
All conjecture of course, we wait with anticipation, nature will take it's own time.
As Karyo says above JonFR seems very confident about there being a major collapse. John, when Pinetubo went up how high did the ash cloud go? JonFR is expecting 20Km which seems a long way