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NorthNorfolkWeather

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    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

     

    Jon has also stated that the Volcano is making its own weather and I think he means local acid rain, farmers are shifting stock etc...

     

     

    I have a lot of time for Jon FR, he's been on the button most of the time.

     

    So it's making it's own weather locally, I suppose what happens over the coming weeks determines whether it will have wider effects.  Do we know the regional effects Mt St Helens had when she went up?  I think that's the closest (in terms of date) to a big blowout.

     

    Looking at the charts it seems that Northern Scandinavia could get a lot of fallout if it blows in the next few days, but then we have to factor in what effect the injection of Ash and SO2 into the stratosphere would have

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather

    http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Bardarbunga_belches

     

    hope that helps lorenzo

     

    hi rusty

     

    lets hope the cams stay up and the weather holds

     

    lovely to watch but lets hope it does not cause travel chaos if the caldera collapses

    Hi John,

     

    I heartily agree about the travel chaos, I'd have to get back from Sweden :-(

     

    I wonder what we'll see first, something in the crater or something in the fissure under the ice?  The 2 M4's under the ice suggest that will go first.  Do we know the ice thickness there?  It must be quite a bit thinner there than higher up, could still make a mess though.

     

    And then there's another in the crater, glad I'm not there

    • Like 1

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather

    As the eruption happens you notice that the VONC GPS goes the opposite way which suggests to me deflation of the Bárðarbunga magma chamber.

    attachicon.gifbbgpseqmap08092014.png

     

    Todays GPS looks to me like the fissure has stopped opening up and there is either a slight rebound or a slight inflation of Bárðarbunga.

     

    Earthquakes at Bárðarbunga today suggest shallow micro quakes in the caldera floor with the occasional deeper strong earthquake. It definately looks like something is going on with the caldera floor to me along with either deeper ring faulting or the feeding dykes into Bárðarbunga.

     

    There are some unexplained anomalies which I dont understand like the Grímsvötn lake begining to fill, is this melt from around Bárðarbunga or seperate heating. The cratering along the fissure does this mean there might have been an under ground glacial melt cavern along the fissure with that glacial cavern having now colapsed. What were the crater pits in the glacier near to Bárðarbunga and does this imply the magma was close to the surface, would this also imply the extrusion from the magma chamber was fairly high up in the magma chamber (this might imply the chamber is depressurizing but not emptying and could be shut off with a caldera lowering). Why did the extrusion not follow the Bárðarbunga fault system initially, it could be an existing anomaly like a cavern or that plate boundaries have twisted so fault lines are at a slightly different angle (possibly due to the earlier kafla eruptions).

     

    It makes me think something is brewing or our understanding is limited in what is going on.

    Hi BF,

     

    have a look at   https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81229-b%C3%A1r%C3%B0arbunga-and-askja-volcanic-activity/page-40#entry3034703 a couple of pages ago, found it on Twitter

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather

    http://www.ruv.is/frett/15-meter-subsidence-in-bardarbunga-caldera

    About 250 million cubic meters of magma have flowed out of the chamber, belived to be under the Bardarbunga caldera, leading to a 15 meter subsidence of the caldera itself. These changes are clearly observed on the surface of the glacier covering the volcano, say scientists.

    Found this via the RUV Twitter site

     

    post-9318-0-72420000-1410088846_thumb.jp

     

    Interesting that the depression, when measured on a "grand" scale looks minute,  but I wonder how much water there is in the bottom 100 metres now  --  rather than ice.  Looking at the bottom part of the graphic, if the cauldera is enclosed and there is nowhere for it to run off to, the amount of water will be colossal.

     

    Looked up in Wikipedia, the cauldera is 70 sqkm, if we assume just the bottom 100M has melted, that 70 Billion tons of water  to vapourise it all you would need 1.582e+16 kJ (Joules) of energy. 

     

    Hello irresistable force, meet immovable object  :diablo: 

    • Like 3

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather

    I've been thinking about the late night earthquakes. They cannot be strictly tidal as they would get later (as an average, they would creep) into the night that hasn't happened on my reading of the situation.

    That being said, the quakes around the caldera have been strong and consistent, Bara may yet go bang

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    This is the recorded and auto corrected data*(90%), it will be manually checked in time when/if it is it gets a 99% on the main site, but that is not all as when the big boss manual checker walks in he/she sometimes changes it because its wrong :pardon: ... This can happen hours later. :clapping:  it is nice trying to beat the checkers, beating the boss I will not talk about  :closedeyes:

     

    *qu= 90%

     

    Note: Ice when collapsing in a volcanic environment can make natural arches that (frustrating for the caldera collapse fans) hold a unbelievably surprising amount of weight.  This throws the scent somewhat  :hi:

    Yep, I made a couple of assumptions (like the Glacier being 200m deep at that point and that the Ice dropped 5 metres (would probably drop more like 50) and came up with 15 billion tonnes for a 3.2 earthquake.

    I got the energy emitted from http://alabamaquake.com/energy.html#/ neat site

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

     

    3.2M in the dyke under the glacier first above 3M for a while

     

     

    Friday

    05.09.2014 14:31:44 64.785 -16.909 7.2 km 3.2 99.0 14.2 km E of Kistufell

     

    Wonder if that's an Ice quake?  The last part of that Video of the new fissure showed quite a depression.

     

     

    Anyone know how how far a given weight of ice would have to fall to produce a 3.2?

     

    I might try to work it out in a minute

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    the so2 doesn't have to get into the stratosphere it can still do the same damage at lower levels of the atmosphere a fissure eruption would be unlikely to get the so2 right up into the stratosphere you would need a big explosive eruption like KATLA to do that although it doesn't get right into the stratosphere when it is released and interacts with water vapour in the atmosphere it then turns the so2 into sulphuric acid which reflects the sunlight and it can hang around in the atmosphere for years before it naturally dissipates now if we think if it was only to get up to 850hpa or 500hpa which is nowhere near the stratosphere then it would cool the lower layers of the atmosphere reducing the temp gradient meaning we would be more likely to see snow as the air below wouldn't warm as much as usual and we could see snow with upper temps we usually wouldn't purely because the lower levels in the atmosphere are colder than usual with the same upper air temps.

     

    it wouldn't create more blocking but it can disrupt weather patters greatly across the globe like LAKI it caused major drought in Africa and caused the indian monsoons to fail and it affected every continent on the planet but LAKI was like this it only had about a 2 mile section erupt at a time but the lava fountains would have been a mile high and maximum flow rate was 150,000 cubic feet per second and it ejected chlorine and fluorine and its so2 output for the total 9 month eruption was 120 mega tonnes I don't know how much this one is yet or will end up being.

     

    this eruption could go on a while if you think of LAKI taking 9 months and the eruption doing same as is just now working its way along the fissure or dyke then this could last a while as well and will be likely to erupt along the whole dyke and under the glacier at some point which will make the eruption more explosive and once this happens it will really be time to watch as if it does turn more explosive then it could have further effects on the fissure itself and put far more strain on the area.

     

    its going to be good watching for the next couple of months at least I think if this goes along the whole fissure then its eruption length will be close to LAKI but I don't think we will get the same amount of magma coming from it but I could be wrong.

    And to follow up on what Buried is saying, the longer the eruption lasts, the more potential effect it has.  At lower levels the SO2 comes out quite quickly as acid rain, mostly sulphurous acid, but if it's being constantly replenished then that's not funny.

     

    With the jet stream liable to carry the SO2 around it's quite likely that at least the Northern part of the UK will be affected during the coming months if this eruption persists.

    • Like 1

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Bada 2 the fissure , there might be further development in the foreground.

     

    I think it may be steam rising out of the ground, this could be significant, saturated alluvial deposits are dangerous in situations like this, explosions can happen. attachicon.gifBada 2 fissure.JPG

    I emphasis can and might here, it may be nothing.

     

     Is it bigger now and 2 of them ...attachicon.gifBada 2 fissure a.JPG  Fumaroles?

    Good catch that. I wouldn't have seen them

    Lots happening

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather

    LAKI was a fissure eruption and the gases didn't go high in the atmosphere but it radically changed weather patterns and caused a cooling which lasted a few years but that was a bigger fissure eruption than this but the so2 at low levels can still affect the weather in a big way it destroyed crops and that back then as well with acid rain and an acidic fog which was over Europe like I said though that was a far bigger eruption than this one LAKI was 27km long and has one of the biggest lava flows in the world.

    I agree with what you say there, but I was only referring to Blocking patterns. The acid rain and all the other problems --- they win depend solely on the size of the eruption.

    Also, the Wikipedia entry (hopefully correct) says it started with phreatomagmatic explosions. That would have given the Initial burst into the high atmosphere.

    • Like 1

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    as an ex chemist, I have my doubts as to whither the S02 will have much effect on the winter unless we got a big bang. SO2 is a heavy gas and will stay in the lower atmosphere unless there is a big explosion. I think it needs to be in the upper troposphere or Stratosphere to affect our weather with Blocking.

    I may be wrong, if I am can one of the experts put me right

    • Like 1

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    This is very much happening on a 24hr cycle, similar times to yesterday.

    I expect this is related to tidal forces on the magma which, if correct, infers repeated flexing and relaxing at that point.

    I was wondering what effect tidal forces would have. They are at one (of the 2) weaker times of the month at the moment, building up again into next week.

    I suppose magma is liquid and is affected by the tides, but much less than water

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather

     

    Looks like a build up then...

     

    Sunday

    31.08.2014 12:01:45 64.675 -17.415 5.2 km 5.1 99.0 6.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Sunday

    31.08.2014 09:26:29 64.619 -17.436 4.2 km 3.1 99.0 5.0 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Sunday

    31.08.2014 05:33:58 64.668 -17.414 3.1 km 3.6 99.0 6.2 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Sunday

    31.08.2014 05:30:58 64.664 -17.550 9.7 km 3.6 99.0 2.8 km NNW of Bárðarbunga

     

    Hi Lorenzo,

     

    I noticed that as well when I looked about an hour ago, you beat me to posting it.

     

    Three of those quakes are on the eastern flank of Bunga and are not too deep, wonder whether there's slipage into the magma chamber. The 5.4 yesterday was on the south east side and relatively shallow

     

    That could fit in with John Pike's comment about a flank collapse as there are a group of EQ's all in the same area (see Rustnailer's post above)

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    the lights on the cams earlier wasn't any kind of eruption or anything to do with any magma it was the IMO driving around placing more sensors around the area.

    Yep, caught out last night by the sensitivity of cameras in the dark.

     

    Never mind there is something this morning :-)

    That looks a bit more energetic than the eruption earlier in the week

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/dyn.gif

    Up we go again

    The storm as norfolk says will probably have no effect on the volcano

    The excess rainfall could be an issue though

    I am wondering if the magma supply could revert back south if it cannot get through to askja

    Just a thought at present

    Aye John, cycling through again.  another quake at the end of this or some magma?

     

     Too late to worry now, the bed is calling

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Thanks.. :good:  thought about it for a couple of days since the low was forecast there, but could not really find anything to prove or disprove what would happen,

     

    thought I'd ask as there are many more knowledgeable people in here than me. 

    That assumes I know what I'm talking about.  What I said was purely guesswork, with a (very ) small amount of knowledge.

     

    I think most of us are learning as we go.  There are several people on here that know much more than me

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