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Everything posted by Dean E
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Was looking forward to something interesting coming up from France, but a band of light rain is likely it seems. Will watch as it moves ashore though. Wind has sudden changed to the East after being light a variable for a few hours. Just had a gust up to 14 mph. Temperature steady at 22.0°C. DP 17.9°C
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Temperatures are comfortably around 31-33°C across most of inland Hampshire, Dorset and Somerset now. The atmosphere is 'loaded' now for development, you can see the SE has already started with plenty of altocumulus development in the past hour. The fuse is ready to be lit. My bets are on surface based convergence zones for storm development that are setting up this afternoon. Salisbury plain, Bristol/Bath area eastwards, Exeter/Honiton and possibly over the South Downs are my picks for our area.
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Reached 30°C here just now, which is an hour earlier than yesterday. RH and Dew points following that rise, so feeling very muggy. Just taken a look at the models in regards to any storm developments and around here there is a cap present, once again, at around 29,000ft. Which is forecast to break once temperatures hit 31 or 32°C this afternoon. So possible storm developments to look forward too, if everything else comes into play. Currently 30.2°C, winds E at 3mph.
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Yeah, it really is surprising! With at least 2 days of excess heat, we tend to get at least an import, but nothing at the moment! As a kid, the 90s were my favourite time for storms. every summer there were at least a few nights with long lasting storms! Tomorrow evening onwards look more promising for the south, though
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It works in the same way really! A cap is just a term used in weather to mean energy can only rise to a certain point, stopping any thunderstorm developments. They usually occur when the boundary layer (rising warm air) hits the colder inversion area (cap), basically preventing the energy from rising any further in the atmosphere. Todays cap has been sitting around 3-6,000ft across the south, thus not conductive for storm clouds which reach 30-40,000ft at times. But as seen across Wales and the Midlands, the cap can be broken if conditions allow.
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Northern France is exploding for the first time today. Interesting surface data from looking at the latest soundings over N France. I've got my eye on them. As others have mentioned 'loaded gun' scenario over Southern England at the moment, but the cap remains. Still hot. 30.1°C. EDIT:- Just complied my records locally of the top 5 temperatures and here they are: 34.4°C - 25 Jul 2019 34.1°C - 9 Aug 2020 33.9°C - 8 Aug 2020 33.3°C - 23 July 2019 33.3°C - 11 Aug 2020 These are now all within the past year. Pretty incredible.
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Cooler nights compared to recent, with 16.9°C being the low at around 4.20am. Expecting much higher temperatures today, possible threatening my highest every recorded temp of 34.4°C set last year. If the sea breeze stays back for long enough. Currently 32.4°C with light NNE winds at 3 MPH. DP 19.0°C
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Had a light rain shower here around 5.30pm. Was very light and evaporated instantly on contact with the ground. After a high of 30.8°C (4th day in a row with 30+) its now cooler, but the temperature is rising again in the past hour. Same reason @Singularity mentioned above, around 5/6pm the sea breeze always cuts off and as a consequence, the winds have switched back to a light NE'ly. Currently 25.3°C, Wind NE at 6 mph. Dew point beginning to rise as well at 18.9°C.
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Broke another record last night for my station, recorded the maximum minimum temperature at 20.6°C which is 0.2°C above the old record. Beautiful sunny day again today, temperatures were rising rapidly until around lunchtime when the sea breeze came flooding up from the channel. How I've missed it! Currently 30.1°C Winds SSE at 15mph.
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I think you really need a local meteorologist that understands local variations in climate. I know ITV Meridian's Holly Green does a good job at understanding local hot spots and regularly suggests Gosport area and Southern Hampshire as hotspots during the summer months. I believe she is currently on maternity. Sadly, national forecasts simply can't provide that level of detail in forecasts!