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Everything posted by Dean E
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65.98mm of rain here over the past week, somewhat impressive and hasn't been seen for a while. 53.70mm of that has fallen since 12am Friday, so pretty impressive. Monthly total now sits at 119.8mm. Interestingly the fields surrounding my area are waterlogged with large floods now showing, however rivers are starting to fall here after their peak during the early hours. Just shows how important open fields and green space is for flood prevention! Currently 8.9°C with partly sunny skies.
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Low of 7.1°C overnight as showers came off the channel throughout. Have now had 43.0mm since Midnight Thursday. Flooding is becoming an issue to the north of us here, some roads are now closed. Local River Ems is responding for the moment, but with this rain falling tonight, there's a lot of surface water coming off the South Downs now. Currently 8.3°C with heavy rain. 1.8mm since 4pm.
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November 2019 Emsworth, Hampshire Temperature Max Temp: 14.9°C (1st) °C Min Temp: -2.4°C (9th) Mean Max: 9.8°C Mean Min: 4.9°C Air Frosts: 5 Rainfall Total: 126.11mm Wettest Day: 13.89mm (23rd) Max Rain Rate: 29.5mm/hr (9th) Rain Days: 23 Dry Days: 7 Pressure Highest: 1015.34 hPa (30th) Lowest: 971.83 hPa (2nd) Snow Days with snow falling: 0 Days with snow lying: 0
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The stratosphere is continuing to be much colder than average over the North Pole, however it appears a possible warming trend has commenced at both 30hpa and 10hpa in the last day. Either way, with the continued disconnect between the stratospheric and tropospheric vortices and below average stratosphere temperatures, the Northern Hemispheric patterns are not normal for the time of year.
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Further to other posts, small weakening of the strat vortex from today's combined data. Not overly unusual, given the above average strength. Whether this is the start of a wave 1 episode remains to be seen. Encouraging.
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
Dean E replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They're are certainly hinting at some form of blocking appearing over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia in the longer term. However, from following these sorts of statements that the long range models show, most of the time, these never benefit the UK. What appears noticeable over the last few days is the increase in rainfall episodes across areas of the UK that have already had enough rain this season. GFS 6z +60h This is just an example of another stalled Low bringing in moisture on Easterly and North Easterly winds from the North Sea, right into areas that do not need it! Cold aside, flooding may become the main issue over the next week. -
First frost of the season last night, temperature got down to 0.3°C. From my 9 years of weather data, this was one of the later frosts, with the average being around 27th October. Also been told by a friend who lives in Oslo, Norway that they woke up to a blanket of snow for the first time this year. Apparently its 3 weeks earlier than normal! Wouldn't mind some of that! Currently party cloudy with hazy sunshine, feeling cold at only 5.6°C.
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No frost neither here last night, the low was 2.6°C. Appears today might be the first day since last winter season that the temperature has not suppressed 10°C as a high. Only reached 9.7°C today, but cannot see that increasing with the approaching front. Currently 9.1°C and cloudy. Winds light and variable.